2025 NFL Week 11 Best Bets
2025 NFL Week 11 Best Bets
Week 10 scheduled the official kickoff to the second half of the NFL season. Some teams began the second half exactly how they intended, while others are making major moves to start the second half. Quarterback and head coaching changes highlighted an eventful week 10. There is plenty more to unfold this week as the NFL season rolls on. Here are my week 11 best bets in the NFL.
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Week 10: 3-1 (+1.95 units)
Year to Date: 22-15 (+5.40 units)
Green Bay Packers (5-3-1) vs. New York Giants (2-8)
New York +7; O/U 42.5
New York +7 (-108)
The Giants moved on from Brian Daboll last week, with Mike Kafka taking over as interim head coach. That was not the only move the Giants made, as Jameis Winston will make his first start of the season. Since moving on from Tampa Bay after the 2019 season, Winston is 2-0 in his debut with new teams. For Green Bay, people were penciling them into the Super Bowl after an impressive start to the year after acquiring Micah Parsons. But since they lost to the Browns in Week 3, Green Bay is 500 and just 1-6 ATS. This feels like two teams with completely different momentum. And for that reason, I’m on the Giants to ride their momentum and keep this one close at home.
Cincinnati Bengals (3-6) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4)
Pittsburgh -5.5; O/U 48.5
Over 48.5 (-110)
Since joining the Bengals, Joe Flacco has reignited this offense in the absence of Joe Burrow. The over is 4-0, and the last three games have averaged 76.7 PPG. This Steelers defense has not scared anyone, despite having big names at every level. Now they are without Darius Slay and Alex Highsmith. Since losing Burrow, the Bengals defense has allowed 35.9 PPG, with six of seven scoring at least 28 points. I think this one can be one of the higher scoring games of the week, and am on the over in this AFC North showdown.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) vs. Buffalo Bills (6-3)
Buffalo -6; O/U 46.5
Buffalo: Team Total Over 26.5 (-118)
Josh Allen and the Bills are coming off a puzzling loss to the Dolphins last week, a game where they just looked unprepared and were outmatched by an inferior opponent. But now they welcome the Buccaneers to town to get back on track. Since 2023, the Bills are averaging 29.6 PPG in contests against the NFC. They have scored over 30 in ten of the 15 games. I’m expecting them to clear their team total in Week 11.
Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) vs. Denver Broncos (8-2)
Denver +4.5; O/U 44.5
Under 44.5 (-115)
Everyone loves to point out how Andy Reid does off the bye (22-4; 84.6%). But a more recent trend that hits has been betting the under when the Chiefs are off a bye.
Since Steve Spagnuola returned to Kansas City as defensive coordinator, the under is 8-2 when the Chiefs are off a bye. Post Covid, the average game total when Kansas City is off a bye is just 39.3 PPG, with only two of the six clearing 40. Since the start of last year, when the Chiefs play another AFC West opponent, the game average is 36.6 PPG, with the under cashing in six of eight. I believe Spags will have a gameplan to slow down Denver’s offense, who will face a team with a winning record for the first time since October 5th against the Eagles. I’m on the under in this AFC West showdown.
Outright Underdogs (.5 Units):
Week 10: 0-0 (+0.00 units)
Year to Date: 3-12 (-4.23 units)
New York Giants vs. Green Bay +300
I hit on this above, but I’m on the Giants to win this outright.
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh +205
Why should we trust the Steelers’ defense at this point? We saw Joe Flacco and the Bengals defense light them up just a few weeks ago. I touched above on how strong Cincinnati’s offense is, and I think they can sweep the Steelers this year.
What are some of your favorite Week 11 NFL best bets? Let me know on X! Follow me @DrewRoberts_ on X for more football content!
