2025 NFL Week 1 Best Bets
2025 NFL Week 1 Best Bets
It’s finally here. After a long summer and even longer preseason, the NFL regular season is finally upon us. 16 games across four days will keep us entertained. Here are my favorite Week 1 NFL bets.
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns
Cleveland +5.5; O/U 48.5
Cleveland +5.5 (-110)
Under 48.5 (-112)
I’ll mention this with another team later, but the Bengals tend to start slow. With Joe Burrow under center, the Bengals are just 1-9 SU in weeks one and two. They have played much more this preseason in hopes to avoid the slow start, but we will have to see how it translates early in the regular season.
As long as Joe Flacco is the starter, he gives the Browns the best chance to be competitive and even win. I would expect Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku to be heavily involved against the Bengals secondary with the running back room up in the air.
I mentioned the slow starts for Joe Burrow and the Bengals. In those 10 starts in Week 1 or Week 2, the Bengals average just 18.6 PPG. Since the start of 2022 when Joe Burrow has played against the Browns, the average game total is just 34 PPG. The game total has fallen under 48.5 in five of the eight games Burrow has played against the Browns, including three of four at Cleveland. I’m on the Browns and the Under in this Week 1 AFC North rivalry.
Tennessee Titans vs. Denver Broncos
Denver -8.5; O/U 42.5
Denver -8.5 (-108)
This is tied for the highest point spread of the weekend, as the Thursday night kickoff between Dallas and Philadelphia was also an 8.5-point line.
This is a tough place for Cam Ward’s debut. Playing at elevation in your debut against one of the top defenses in the league. It does not help that 1st overall picks tend to struggle in their debut. Since 2000, we have 10 instances of a 1st overall pick starting Week 1 of his rookie year. Rookies are 2-7-1 SU in those contests. On average, the rookie quarterback completes 53.1% of their passes, and thrown 13 touchdowns to 17 interceptions. Despite Caleb Williams and the Bears being the second team to win with an opening day rookie, Williams completed just 48.3% of his attempts for 93 yards (3.21 YPA). The only touchdowns the Bears scored in that game were an interception and blocked punt return for touchdown. I believe Denver handles business in Week 1.
Houston Texans vs. Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles -3.5; O/U 43.5
Under 43.5 (-115)
Matthew Stafford has been sidelined most of this preseason with a lingering back issue. It’s been reported that if the Rams were to play meaningful football earlier this year, Stafford would play. Nonetheless, we have seen teams start slower when the starters don’t play much in the preseason – see Cincinnati the last few years. One of Stafford’s go to options the last few years, Cooper Kupp, is now in Seattle and is replaced with Davante Adams.
For Houston, they will miss key offensive pieces from last year. Joe Mixon is out for this game, and his status for this season is up in the air. Slot receiver Christian Kirk is likely to miss this week. Starting left tackle from last year, Laremy Tunsil, was traded to Washington this offseason. C.J. Stroud will likely have to rely heavily on Nico Collins, two Iowa State rookie receivers, and an aging Nick Chubb. Both defenses could be the best units for both teams early in this season. I’m on the Under in this Week 1 matchup.
Outright Underdogs (.5 Units):
Seattle vs. San Francisco +105
Christian McCaffrey was a late addition to the injury report with a calf injury. The offense is already without Brandon Aiyuk, leaving George Kittle and newish skill position players with Ricky Pearsall and JaJuan Jennings. As a divisional underdog at home in Week 1, the underdog is 23-7 ATS since 2010. I think Seattle is prime for a home opener upset.
Houston @ Los Angeles (N) +140
We hit this up top as I’m on the under in this one. But I would expect a slower start for the Rams to start the season until Stafford gets up to game speed. I’m on Houston for the upset on the road.
What are some of your favorite Week 1 NFL best bets? Let me know on X! Follow me @DrewRoberts_ on X for more football content!
