2025 College Football Playoff Landscape – Post Week 8
2025 College Football Playoff Landscape
Post Week 8
It was a chaotic Week 8 across the college football landscape. In a week where we saw every AP top-25 team play, two ranked teams fell on Friday night in Miami and Nebraska. This was only the beginning, as we saw ranked teams like Texas Tech and Memphis go on the road and fall to unranked teams. Others like Texas and Missouri barely escaped road environments thanks to overtime. And we didn’t even touch on the five ranked matchups that saw each of the five home teams walk away victorious. Now that the dust has settled, how do each of the conferences fair after a chaotic week 8? Let’s take a look at each conference and see who is still alive for the 2025 College Football Playoff field after week 8.
2025 College Football Playoff Landscape – Post Week 7
More: Week 8 Fantasy Football Rankings (2025)
2025 College Football Playoff Rule Changes
In last year’s playoff format, the top four ranked conference championship game winners received the 1-4 seeds. The next highest conference championship game winner was guaranteed a spot into the field, but was not guaranteed a home field game.
The biggest change this year relates to those conference championship game winners: they will no longer receive a bye. Meaning, we can see any combination of conferences receive those four exclusive byes.
Another change we will see in November’s first playoff ranking reveal is how much the committee values the new schedule strength metric. Last year saw plenty of discussion on whether an 11-1 Indiana Hoosiers team should receive an at-large berth, despite playing a favorable Big Ten schedule and no Power Four non-conference opponents. Or should a 9-3 Alabama, South Carolina, or Ole Miss team get in from playing a more difficult schedule, despite taking more losses to inferior opponents.
More: 2025 College Football Futures
ACC
Likely Scenario: 2 team
Best Case Scenario: 4 teams
In the Playoff Teams
Georgia Tech was an underdog going into Durham, but managed to run away with this one late. They were a fringe 2025 College Football Playoff team last week, but after week 8, are one of a handful of unbeaten teams remaining. Georgia Tech has four conference games remaining, with one – home against Pitt – with a winning ACC record. Their regular season finale against Georgia could be a play-in game for one of the four byes. While that is over a month away, the ramifications of that game could increase as the season goes on.
Of course as soon as I praise the Miami Hurricanes, they lose as a two-score favorite at home to Louisville. Carson Beck was pressured and coughed up four interceptions. Still, Miami is on pace to make the 2025 College Football Playoff. Of their last six games, only two come against teams with a winning ACC record at the moment.
Still Alive Teams
The win over Louisville now looms even larger for Virginia. Thanks to a non-conference loss to North Carolina State, they now are one of three undefeated teams in conference play, joining Georgia Tech and SMU. The remainder of Virginia’s schedule is favorable as well, with only two of the last five conference games coming against opponents with a winning ACC record.
Louisville secures a huge win at Miami to keep their playoff hopes alive. Two of their last three games in conference play will be against ACC teams with a winning conference record, playing Cal, Clemson, and at SMU. SMU has a tough remaining schedule, playing Miami, Louisville and Cal. If the Mustangs can survive that gauntlet, they will find themselves ranked and in the playoff discussion.
Duke losing to Georgia Tech likely eliminates them from conversation from the playoffs. Entering their bye week, they already have three losses – one in conference – and still have games against Clemson and Virginia. The Blue Devils need ultimate chaos in the ACC the last month of the year, and that likely will not be enough.
It will be interesting to see how the college football playoff committee views the ACC. After week 8, there is an outside shot of getting three teams in the 2025 College Football Playoff. But will they rank lower in the CFP rankings than the AP Poll? Will a frenzy of losses across the SEC help the ACC teams rise to the top? The next few weeks will help the ACC playoff picture, but weirdly after your best team loses, it potentially helped the conference.
More: Fantasy Notebook: Target & Snap Share Data from Week 7 (2025)
#12 Notre Dame (5-2)
Notre Dame won their last true test of the year, beating USC at home 34-24. Of their five remaining games, only two come against teams with a winning record, home against Navy and at Pitt. There will be enough losses across other conferences to see Notre Dame finish the year in the top-10. If Notre Dame handles business, they are locked for a spot in the 2025 College Football Playoff.
Big 12
Likely Scenario: 1 team
Best Case Scenario: 2 teams
In the Playoff Teams
BYU came out victorious in the Holy War over Utah. And like Georgia Tech, are now one of a handful of unbeatens. At this point of the year, having a zero in the loss column will have you shoot up the rankings. Still, the Cougars have a difficult path with their next four being 500 or better in Big 12 play. If BYU continues to win with this schedule, expect them to be in the top-10 in next week’s post.
Still Alive Teams
Texas Tech lost their first game of the season and fell down the rankings. This now has them behind Arizona State in the tiebreaker for Big 12 Championship game appearance. The good news for the Red Raiders? You have a favorable schedule – two teams 2-2 or better in conference – and one is BYU. If you handle business at home against the Cougars, and manage to win out, you are back in the playoffs.
Both Cincinnati and Houston managed to win in week 8 to keep their hopes alive. Cincinnati benefits from Texas Tech being upset, as now only they and BYU are undefeated in conference play. Their toughest games are still ahead of them against Utah and BYU, but Cincinnati very much has a path to the Big 12 Championship game. Houston shifts their focus to Arizona State this week. After that, the Cougars play no one with a winning record in Big 12 play.
Arizona State knocking off Texas Tech was arguably the second best win of the weekend behind Louisville upsetting Miami. The Sun Devils are firmly in the conversation for representing the Big 12. Big games against Houston and Iowa State are on deck. But if the Sun Devils survive those two, they at worst would be in a tie for second in conference.
Utah failed to win in their two biggest games this year. With two losses in the conference to two of the top teams in Texas Tech and BYU, it is unlikely they will get a chance at the Big 12 championship game. Despite only two losses, I don’t believe Utah has the opportunities left on their schedule to propel them to the college football playoff.
Texas Tech still seems like the best Big 12 team, but there are now chinks in the armor. Any hope of getting two teams is likely out the window, unless teams start picking each other off in the ACC and SEC. Looking ahead of the schedules, there is a chance the Red Raiders miss the Big 12 Championship game and rely on an at-large bid. We could have two of BYU, Cincinnati, and Arizona State playing in Dallas.
Big Ten
Likely Scenario: 3 teams
Best Case Scenario: 4 teams
First Round Byes & In the Playoff Teams
The Big Ten is pretty clear at the top. Ohio State looks to be the best team in the country. Indiana and Oregon are in the next tier. All three appear to be in the playoff, barring some huge upsets.
Still Alive Teams
The group of five teams in the Big Ten with an outside chance of making the playoff is a mess. We have an elimination game this week between Illinois and Washington. Neither team holds a loss to a bad opponent. Illinois at least has a win over a team in this group – USC. Washington is still searching for that.
Michigan has a similar case to Illinois – no bad losses and a win against a team in this group after knocking off Washington last week. They do, however, hold a head to head loss to USC. Not to mention two losses before their game against Ohio State. Michigan has to run the table to make it into the college football playoff. Next week’s game against Nebraska is a can’t lose for the Maize and Blue.
USC and Nebraska are in tough spots from here on out. USC has a win over Michigan, but still has two road games against Nebraska and Oregon. For the Cornhuskers, their win over Cincinnati is aging beautifully. But last week’s loss to Minnesota is brutal and the worst of the group. Even if they win out, there is a chance they have just one win over a ranked team at seasons end. Both USC and Nebraska’s College Football Playoff chances are on life support.
The best case scenario for the Big Ten stays the same as last week: the top three teams holding strong, while one of the teams still alive emerges as a 10-win team. The SEC would also help get a 4th Big Ten team if they cannibalize each other, and we see four or five 9-3 or 8-4 teams.
SEC
Likely Scenario: 4 teams
Best Case Scenario: 5 teams
First Round Byes & In the Playoff Teams
Texas A&M continues to win and find themselves atop the SEC. They won last week in Fayetteville to start their three game road stand over the next month. The next two games will be much more difficult, going to Baton Rouge and Columbia, Missouri. Splitting the two should secure a spot in the playoffs.
Alabama’s conference resume is the best in the country, going 4-0 against ranked opponents. The Crimson Tide get a “break” this week when they play South Carolina on the road, just one of two games against an unranked SEC team. All signs show Alabama being the best team in the SEC so far.
Georgia knocked off Ole Miss last week to hand the Rebels their first loss. Only three SEC games remain for the Bulldogs, and the toughest task appears to be Texas. Georgia will close their regular season against an in-state rival Georgia Tech that could have playoff seeding implications. For Ole Miss, this week appears to be your last test at Oklahoma. Win this one and you should make the playoff, barring some loss to mirror last year’s loss to Kentucky. However, their two toughest tests come in the next two weeks: at and at Oklahoma. Lane Kiffin and the Rebels have two 10-win seasons in the last four years. That could be enough to get them in their first College Football Playoff.
Vanderbilt was favored for the first time over LSU since World War II, and the Commodores pulled it out. There are still three ranked matchups on the schedule, but Vanderbilt looks every bit the part of a playoff team. Can they continue this run to make their debut in the 2025 College Football Playoff?
Still Alive Teams
I thought last weeks game against South Carolina was a potential letdown spot for Oklahoma, but the Sooners prevailed. As the rankings are now, it is their last game against an unranked opponent. With only one ranked win over Michigan, Oklahoma has plenty of opportunities to build their resume – or fade out of the playoff picture.
Three of the next four games for Missouri come against ranked opponents. Like the next two teams on this list, the Tigers do not have any quality wins. Just “quality” losses. Missouri will have to rattle off some wins to get some quality to their resume.
The last three teams are one loss from elimination. Tennessee lost to Alabama, and now holds two losses in conference play. Oklahoma and Vanderbilt both loom large down the stretch for the Volunteers, but offer up some quality wins. LSU and Texas seem like the same team – two great defenses, but the offense has held the team back from reaching their preseason hype. Texas at least holds a neutral site win over Oklahoma, but neither team can afford another misstep. Both still have three ranked matchups on the schedule and must run the table. Based on their play and lack of quality of wins, three losses by either team rules them out.
The SEC is still a mess. The ACC could steal some bids and ruin the hopes and dreams of 10-2 SEC teams, depending on how the schedule falls.
Group of Six
American (5)
South Florida has won their first three games in the American by at least 27 points, and 30 PPG on average. They have a huge game this week, although it lost some luster after Memphis had a huge upset loss to UAB. Memphis’s quarterback, Brendon Lewis, went down with an injury in the loss and was ruled day-to-day earlier this week.
Tulane survived a scare against Army, a rematch of last year’s American Championship game. North Texas dominated UTSA after a loss to South Florida. They still have a game against undefeated Navy in a few weeks, but the rest of their schedule is against bottom American teams. Navy locked up bowl eligibility last week. After this weeks game against Florida Atlantic, the Midshipmen play three of the top four teams in the American, along with Notre Dame. It is a tall task to close the season for Navy.
Mountain West (3)
UNLV suffered their first loss last week, and now a new team enters the fold – Boise State. I originally ruled out Boise State because they have two losses already, including one to a top tier Group of Six team in South Florida. But a big win against UNLV last week has Boise State in the mix again.
San Diego State dominated Nevada last week to remain unbeaten in Mountain West play. This weeks game against Fresno State should be a close one based on the spread. Not to mention another opportunity against Boise State in the middle of November. A win over the Bulldogs and Broncos should secure the Aztecs a spot in the Mountain West Championship game.
Sun Belt (1)
James Madison continues to shine, drumming Old Dominion by 36. JMU was receiving votes in this week’s AP Poll, and ranked 8th in Group of Six schools. If James Madison continues to win and dominate the Sun Belt, they will be in line for the top Group of Six spot for the 2025 College Football Playoff.
Who do you see making the 2025 College Football Playoff? Let me know on X!
Follow @drewroberts_ and let’s discuss any football topic you’d like
