2025 College Football Playoff Landscape – Post Week 7
2025 College Football Playoff Landscape
Post Week 7
Halfway through October means we are halfway through the 2025 college football season. And while we still have a few weeks until the first reveal of the 2025 College Football Playoff rankings, we are narrowing our focus on who can make the second annual 12-team field. Some major players in the preseason are already eliminated. Others were thought of as a possibility, but are now firmly in the mix. Plenty of others are exactly who we thought they were – playoff worthy. Let’s take a look at each conference and see who is still alive for the 2025 College Football Playoff field after week 7.
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2025 College Football Playoff Rule Changes
In last year’s playoff format, the top four ranked conference championship game winners received the 1-4 seeds. The next highest conference championship game winner was guaranteed a spot into the field, but was not guaranteed a home field game.
The biggest change this year relates to those conference championship game winners: they will no longer receive a bye. Meaning, we can see any combination of conferences receive those four exclusive byes.
Another change we will see in November’s first playoff ranking reveal is how much the committee values the new schedule strength metric. Last year saw plenty of discussion on whether an 11-1 Indiana Hoosiers team should receive an at-large berth, despite playing a favorable Big Ten schedule and no Power Four non-conference opponents. Or should a 9-3 Alabama, South Carolina, or Ole Miss team get in from playing a more difficult schedule, despite taking more losses to inferior opponents.
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ACC
Likely Scenario: 1 team
Best Case Scenario: 2 teams
First Round Byes & In the Playoff Teams
Miami looks every part of a top-2 team in the country this year. Two wins over current ranked teams Notre Dame and top-Group of Six South Florida, along with a pair of in-state wins over Florida and Florida State. Miami’s schedule favors the Hurricanes; their first time leaving the state of Florida comes on November 1st at SMU. There are a few tricky spots left on the Hurricane schedule, including this week’s contest against Louisville. November has been the tricky spot for Miami under Mario Christobal. The Hurricanes are 23-6 in September and October, but just 4-8 in the month of November.
Georgia Tech has arguably their biggest game to date with a trip to Durham to take on 4-2 Duke. Their wins have aged poorly, with Wake Forest the only current win over a team with a winning record. The good news for the Yellow Jackets: they should be favored in their next four after this week. A neutral site game on Thanksgiving weekend against Georgia could determine their playoff fate. Georgia Tech will likely have to go into the ACC Championship sitting at 11-1 if they want an at-large bid, with one of those losses coming at either Duke or in the finale against Georgia.
Still Alive Teams
Having already beat Louisville, Virginia sits in the next best spot in the ACC. Their last road game will come at Duke, but outside of that, the Cavaliers will avoid the other six teams alive for the College Football Playoff in the ACC. Duke, Louisville, and SMU all play two teams previously mentioned.
Ultimately after week 7, the best case scenario for the ACC is Miami runs the table and loses the ACC Championship to either Georgia Tech or Virginia. This will secure a second ACC team, while also likely keeping Miami as a top-4 seed at 12-1.
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Notre Dame (4-2)
Good news, Irish fans: you won’t have to wait like other teams to determine your fate. If you win out, you’re in the playoffs. If you lose another, you’re out.
Notre Dame lost their first two games – both coming to current unbeaten teams in the top-4. While those are not bad losses, the schedule has shaped up to provide no great wins. This week’s ranked matchup against USC is their last opportunity to secure a ranked win. Luckily, there has been enough chaos across the country the Fighting Irish are very much still in the mix, even ranked 13th at the time of this article.
Big 12
Likely Scenario: 1 team
Best Case Scenario: 2 teams
In the Playoff Teams
Texas Tech is the belle of the ball in the Big 12 – and not particularly close. The Red Raiders have scored over 34 in each contest, while allowing 17 or fewer in each game. Road trips to Arizona State this week, Kansas State in late October, and a home game against BYU in November separate the Red Raiders from what should be an undefeated regular season. At this point, anything less than 11-1 would be a surprise.
Still Alive Teams
We will know more about BYU over the next six weeks. Three of the next five come against teams still alive as Big 12 representatives. The Holy War this week between BYU and Utah will help clear the waters. The Utes already played Texas Tech and Arizona State. splitting the two games. If they can get by BYU this week and Cincinnati later in the year, we could see a rematch between Utah and Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship.
Both Cincinnati and Houston have favorable schedules down the stretch and can represent in the Big 12 Championship game. Arizona State already has a conference loss, along with a loss to Mississippi State, and still has a tough three game stretch starting with Texas Tech this week. But if the Sun Devils win the next three, expect them to be in the top-15-20 range in the polls.
Best case scenario for the Big 12 is similar to the ACC: your top team, Texas Tech, runs the table and loses in the championship game. The only difference between the two is the gap between the top team to the next tier in the Big 12 appears to be far wider than that in the ACC.
Big Ten
Likely Scenario: 3 teams
Best Case Scenario: 4 teams
First Round Byes & In the Playoff Teams
Ohio State should run the table and finish undefeated. They look every part of a team that could repeat as National Champions. The biggest question for Ryan Day’s squad, as it has been the last few years: can you beat Michigan?
Indiana made the College Football Playoff last year and were often discussed as a team that should be omitted, despite an 11-1 record. Now, the Hoosiers have two ranked wins and arguably the best one, beating Oregon in Autzen last week, in the country. This earns the Hoosiers their highest ranking in the AP Poll in program history, and currently in line for a bye in the playoff.
The overeaction to Oregon’s loss last week is puzzling. The Ducks had two big games on the schedule – at Penn State and against Indiana. Splitting both is not the end of the world. I fully expect Oregon to run the table and make the 2025 College Football Playoff.
Still Alive Teams
The Big Ten has a group of five that are alive to make this a four-bid league. USC has a tall task, with three remaining road games against ranked opponents. Michigan’s schedule lightens up if they can get by Washington this week, with four winnable games before their finale with Ohio State. Washington has Michigan this week, Illinois next, and Oregon in their finale. A tall task for the Huskies to close the second half of the season. Illinois and Nebraska have the easiest paths remaining. Illinois has a bye, then at Washington; three of the last four are at home and against bottom tier Big Ten teams. Nebraska hosts USC and has three road contests, but none against ranked opponents.
Best case scenario for the Big Ten would be the top three teams holding strong, while one of the teams still alive emerges as a 10-win team. The SEC would also help get a 4th Big Ten team if they cannibalize each other, and we see four or five 9-3 or 8-4 teams.
SEC
Likely Scenario: 5 teams
Best Case Scenario: 6 teams
First Round Byes & In the Playoff Teams
The Aggies of Texas A&M have one of the five best wins of the year, a road win in South Bend. However, that is the lone road contest to date for A&M. They still have road games at LSU, Missouri, and Texas. We will see if the Aggies can keep momentum going in the second half of the season.
Ole Miss has a home win over LSU and Group of Six contender Tulane. However, their two toughest tests come in the next two weeks: at Georgia and at Oklahoma. Lane Kiffin and the Rebels have two 10-win seasons in the last four years. That could be enough to get them in their first College Football Playoff.
Alabama’s hiccup in their opener is the only blemish on their resume. Their last three wins have come against ranked SEC teams – and they still have three more to go. If Alabama manages to hit the 10-win mark, expect them to be in contention for a top-4 seed. Similar to Alabama, Georgia has three remaining ranked SEC games. In two ranked games this year, the Bulldogs are 1-1 with both games decided by three points. LSU‘s schedule has aged the worst of this group. Their best win is at Clemson in the opener, and they lost their lone game against a team still ranked. Fear not, Tiger fans: you have four ranked games in your last six to build up your resume.
Still Alive Teams
The theme with these teams is they all lack a true signature win. Tennessee is even par with LSU at this point – their lone loss came in overtime to Georgia. No other wins stand out to this point, but they have three opportunities remaining to get ranked wins on their resume. Missouri will leave home for the first time this week with a trip down to Auburn. Their best win to date is against Kansas, but can they avoid multiple road losses with four of the last six away from Columbia? Oklahoma’s two wins over Power Four opponents have faded in value. But after a road contest to South Carolina this week, the Sooners close with five teams on this list. Signature wins are on the horizon if the Sooners can get hot late.
The surprise of the SEC the last two seasons has been the Vanderbilt Commodores. Yet to get a win that still has true significance, but they have four remaining games that can have the Commodores sniff the playoffs. Similar to Notre Dame, the Texas Longhorns must win out to have a shot at the playoffs. Going 1-2 in Power Four matchups so far won’t cut it. Three ranked wins down the stretch will help with Texas’s resume.
The SEC is a mess compared to the rest of the Power Four conferences. I could see them getting four teams, but they could also get as many as six. This will likely come from the results of the ACC and Big 12, especially if they both are only one-team bids.
Group of Six
American (5)
The South Florida Bulls have made the most noise among Group of Six schools. First, by beating last year’s Group of Six representative, Boise State, in convincing fashion in the opener. Then they win a close one in the Swamp against Florida. And while they lost to Miami, they handled business against a top American contender in North Texas last week. In two weeks, they will get another opportunity to face one of the top teams in the American, Memphis. Like South Florida, Memphis knocked off a SEC team when they beat Arkansas in September. Next week’s matchup between these two could shuffle up the Group of Six deck.
Tulane has not one, but two Power Four wins. They knocked off Northwestern in their opener, and followed that up with a win over Duke. Their only blemish is a big one, a 35-point loss to Ole Miss. Memphis is the last big matchup for Tulane as they hope to get into the American Championship game. While Navy is undefeated, no wins truly stand out. We saw them struggle last year when they stepped up in competition. They have three of the American’s best to close the year, along with a trip to Notre Dame. North Texas suffered a 27-point loss to South Florida last week. But the Mean Green still have a path, as the only game remaining against top-tier American competition is Navy. Running the table could land them in the American Championship game.
Mountain West (2)
UNLV is the lone undefeated team in the Mountain West. Four of their six wins have been one possession games. Dan Mullins has done a great job in keeping the momentum going that Barry Odom established in his two years at the school. Boise State is a tough test on deck for the Running Rebels, as one of the last three unbeaten Mountain West conference teams will fall this week.
If you were to look at San Diego State’s schedule, you would wonder what in the world happened in that loss to Washington State. Since the loss, the Aztecs have won four straight, with three coming by at least 21 points. Sean Lewis has turned this team around in his second year. A future game against Boise State will effect the shakeout of the Mountain West, but the Aztecs are very much in play for Group of Six representation.
Sun Belt (1)
In an outside chance, I’m not ready to rule out James Madison just yet from representing the Group of Six. Bob Chesney is 14-5 since replacing Curt Cignetti, with the lone loss this year coming against Louisville. Can JMU run the table in the Sun Belt to go 12-1 and force the College Football Playoff committee make a difficult decision as to who will represent the Group of Six? Only time will tell who separates themselves from the pack to qualify for the 2025 College Football Playoff.
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