2025 College Football Playoff Landscape – Post Week 14
2025 College Football Playoff Landscape
Post Week 14
Week 14 was full of upset potential. It was rivalry week and the last week of the regular season. Some teams had the opportunity to reach bowl eligibility, and some had the chance to ruin playoff hopes. But we left with a lot of chalk at the end of the week 14 scoreboard. It’s now conference championship week, and the landscape is unlikely to shift after this week – if the college football playoff committee is consistent with prior years. With the lack of changes expected after this week, there are a limited number of teams still alive for playoff spots. Let’s take a look at each conference and see who is still alive for the 2025 College Football Playoff field after week 14.
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2025 College Football Playoff Rule Changes
In last year’s playoff format, the top four ranked conference championship game winners received the 1-4 seeds. The next highest conference championship game winner was guaranteed a spot into the field, but was not guaranteed a home field game.
The biggest change this year relates to those conference championship game winners: they will no longer receive a bye. Meaning, we can see any combination of conferences receive those four exclusive byes.
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ACC
Worst Case Scenario: 0 teams
Likely Scenario: 1 team
Best Case Scenario: 2 teams
ACC Championship Game
Virginia takes on Duke in the ACC Championship game in Charlotte. This is a rematch of a meeting from November 15th, where Virginia won 34-17 in Durham. The Hoos outgained Duke 540-255 in that game. In the first three quarters, Virginia led 31-3 and outgained Duke 471-149.
There is a doomsday scenario for the ACC where they have no representation in the playoffs. Duke currently sits at 7-5 with a loss to current American Championship qualifier Tulane. The American champion – whether it is Tulane or North Texas – will be ranked ahead of Duke. James Madison is 11-1, and is ahead of the Blue Devils as well for the 5th conference championship representative. Given this outcome based on tiebreakers, it would not surprise me if we see changes in the ACC next year. Because the system is flawed when a 7-5 team has the same conference record and wins a tiebreaker over a 10-2 Miami team, due to two (2) common opponents.
Case for Miami
Speaking of Miami, I do believe there is an outside chance they get in the playoffs. Here is what I believe they would need:
The current seeding is Notre Dame 10, BYU 11, and Miami at 12. If BYU gets blown out again against Texas Tech, they will likely drop in the rankings after taking their second loss. This moves Miami up. Now you have a case for Notre Dame and Miami to be back-to-back. I understand it is one game in a 12-game season and it happened three months ago. But it is hard to justify scheduling these major games if head-to-head results are not factored in.
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#10 Notre Dame (10-2)
Notre Dame is in the playoff field – for now. And while it is likely they remain in the field, the layout I have above makes it a non-zero chance the Irish miss the playoffs. They should be hoping for BYU to keep it close with Texas Tech. But if BYU gets blown out, or wins the Big 12 Championship, Notre Dame is out of the playoffs.
Big 12
Likely Scenario: 1 team
Best Case Scenario: 2 team
Big 12 Championship
We get a rematch between Texas Tech and BYU. In the first meeting, Texas Tech dominated the matchup and won 29-7. The Red Raiders outgained the Cougars 368-255, and led after three quarters 19-0. Texas Tech outscored their next two opponents – UCF and West Virginia, who both went 2-7 in Big 12 play – 97-9. BYU was also impressive down the stretch, outscoring their last three opponents 111-48 after the Texas Tech loss.
Regardless of the outcome – barring significant injures – Texas Tech will be in the college football playoff. BYU needs a win to get in the field. The Big 12 is pretty cut and dry. Unfortunately for Utah, they did everything they could after picking up their second loss to BYU, as they won their last five by an average margin of 23.6 PPG. But not enough chaos occurred across the country, leaving the Utes playing in one of the better bowl games – just not in the playoffs.
Big Ten – 3 Teams
Ohio State and Indiana are in the Big Ten Championship game, with Vegas expecting the Buckeyes to win by 4-5 points. These were the only two teams to finish a perfect 12-0, and regardless of the result, I would expect both to receive a bye in the first round.
Oregon handled a tough schedule down the stretch and is now in line to host a first round playoff game. Currently sitting at the five spot, Oregon is set to host a first round playoff game. The likely opponent will be the American Champion, or James Madison.
SEC – 5 Teams
SEC Championship
The SEC Championship is set, with Georgia looking to avenge their lone loss on the season as they take on Alabama. Both teams ended the year with one conference loss and held tiebreakers over Ole Miss and Texas A&M. In the first matchup, Alabama jumped to an early lead with Georgia clawing back. The Crimson Tide led at halftime 24-14 after jumping out to an early 17-7 lead halfway through the second quarter. Alabama won the game 24-21.
Georgia is likely to get a bye, with the worst case scenario they fall to the 5th seed. I believe if Alabama wins the SEC Championship, they will receive a bye.
Playoff Teams
Ole Miss has had an eventful week and a half. Lane Kiffin is out as head coach, with Pete Golding named as his permanent replacement. Yet, the Rebels moved up a spot after winning the Egg Bowl. They are comfortably in the field and will host a playoff game, likely being either Virginia or the American Champion.
Texas A&M suffered their first loss this year at Texas last week, knocking them from the SEC Championship game. They drop to the last one-loss spot in the field, currently placed at 7th. That is good enough to host a playoff game.
Oklahoma stays at eight, the last spot to host a playoff game. They already played Alabama – the current nine seed – earlier this year, winning at Alabama 23-21.
Vanderbilt is out of playoff contention. However, there should be only positives to take away from Vanderbilt’s 2025 season. Diego Pavia should head to New York for the Heisman Trophy ceremony. And for the first time in Vanderbilt history, they recorded 10 wins. They just flipped a top quarterback prospect – five-star Jared Curtis – from Georgia, to play with Clark Lea, who just received an extension. The arrow is pointing up and to the right for the Commodores.
Group of Six
No offense to the MAC, Conference USA, or Mountain West Championship games, but they do not play a factor in the playoff race.
Tulane takes on North Texas in the American Championship game. The winner is likely to take the Group of Six spot in the playoff field. Both schools lost their head coaches, with each expected to coach their team throughout the playoffs. James Madison is the only other representative in play for a playoff spot. The Dukes won each of their eight conference games by an average of 27.4 PPG. Like Tulane and North Texas, James Madison lost their coach, Bob Chesney, to UCLA last week. And like the coaching changes at Tulane and North Texas, Chesney will coach the Dukes if they make the College Football Playoff. Two of these three teams can make the field, if and only if, Duke wins the ACC Championship to move to 8-5.
Who do you see making the 2025 College Football Playoff? Let me know on X!
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