2025 College Football Playoff Landscape – Post Week 13
2025 College Football Playoff Landscape
Post Week 13
While week 13 was quiet across the college football landscape, there was still some shakeup in the college football playoff rankings. Surely this will get shaken up one more time as we enter rivalry week. Some teams are vying for their spot in the playoffs. Some are playing for bowl eligibility. A handful of teams must sit back and rely on the play of others. Let’s take a look at each conference and see who is still alive for the 2025 College Football Playoff field after week 13.
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2025 College Football Playoff Rule Changes
In last year’s playoff format, the top four ranked conference championship game winners received the 1-4 seeds. The next highest conference championship game winner was guaranteed a spot into the field, but was not guaranteed a home field game.
The biggest change this year relates to those conference championship game winners: they will no longer receive a bye. Meaning, we can see any combination of conferences receive those four exclusive byes.
First College Football Playoff Ranking
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ACC
Likely Scenario: 1 team
Best Case Scenario: 2 teams
In the Playoff Teams
As the weeks go on, the noise for Miami to jump Notre Dame is getting louder and louder. The betting odds suggest that is unlikely; DraftKings currently has Notre Dame at -1400 (93.33% probability) and Miami +220 (31.25%). Still, the Hurricanes have an outside chance of stealing an at-large bid. They must win this week at Pittsburgh.
Still Alive Teams
With a three-way tie atop the ACC, let’s go over the tie-breaker scenario. Currently, Virginia, SMU, and Pittsburgh all stand at 6-1 in ACC play heading into week 14. The tiebreaker for ACC goes to win-loss record against common opponents. Virginia and SMU hold the tiebreaker, as they both went 2-0 against Louisville and Stanford, while Pittsburgh is 1-1 with a loss to Louisville. So it’s simple for Virginia and SMU: win and you go to Charlotte. Virginia takes on Virginia Tech at home. SMU has Cal on the road. Pittsburgh hosts Miami.
Georgia Tech lost a must-win game against Pitt last week. There is an outside chance of the Yellow Jackets making the ACC Championship game. Tech would need Cal to beat SMU, Pitt to beat Miami, and Virginia Tech to beat Virginia in order to play Pittsburgh in the ACC Championship game. Even a win over Georgia will likely not be enough for an at-large bid.
The ACC is likely a one-bid league, barring insane upsets that would propel Miami to be right beside Notre Dame. If that happens, Miami likely gets in due to a head to head win in week 1. But if that happens, both the Irish and Miami will likely get in.
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#9 Notre Dame (9-2)
Notre Dame led Syracuse 21-0 before the offense took a snap. Now they play Stanford late Saturday night for a chance to go to the playoff. Marcus Freeman is 17-3 against ACC opponents since taking over as Notre Dame’s head coach in 2022.
The gap between Notre Dame and Miami is getting closer. And while the Irish have played better the second half of the season than the Hurricanes, the head to head matchup will likely come in to play.
Big 12
Likely Scenario: 1 team
Best Case Scenario: 2 team
In the Playoff Teams
Texas Tech won convincingly over Central Florida last week. Now they play a West Virginia team that has nothing to play for with bowl eligibility wiped away. Except to play spoiler and kick Tech out of the Big 12 Championship.
Still Alive Teams
BYU had one of the better wins in a quiet week 13, going into Cincinnati and beating the Bearcats. Now they host Central Florida for a chance to avenge the lone loss on the year to Texas Tech. The question is: if BYU jumps into the top-10, can they stay there even if they lose to Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship?
Utah is the biggest BYU and West Virginia fan this week. If both win, Utah gets a rematch at BYU for the Big 12 Championship. Otherwise, Utah is likely on the outside of the playoffs. They were jumped this week by Miami and now need to pass three teams to get an at-large. The Big 12 Championship is the best case scenario for the Utes.
A rematch is nearly written in stone for Texas Tech and BYU. Utah has a slight chance if Tech slips up. But the best case scenario for the Big 12 is BYU upsetting an 11-1 Tech team in the championship game to make the Big 12 a two-bid league.
Big Ten
Likely Scenario: 3 teams
Best Case Scenario: 4 teams
First Round Byes & In the Playoff Teams
Ohio State and Indiana have locked up two spots in the Big Ten. There is a high likelihood both receive a bye. Both have a road game against their rival to close the regular season. Indiana’s is much easier than the Buckeyes, and the Hoosiers go to West Lafayette to take on Purdue, while Ohio State travels to Ann Arbor to take on Michigan.
Oregon took care of business against USC. Now, the Ducks have a couple of quality wins – at Iowa and against USC. This Saturday’s game against Washington is still a tricky spot. I believe they would be in, even if they lose. But a win secures the Ducks a top-8 seed, and someone will have to travel to Eugene in the first round. Lanning is 41-7 against FBS opponents since taking over as Oregon’s head coach, and 21-2 at home.
Still Alive Teams
Michigan had a scare against Northwestern, but convincingly took care of business at Maryland. Now is the biggest game on the Wolverines calendar: Ohio State. Michigan jumped Texas this week, a significant move considering Texas plays another top-3 team in Texas A&M. A win likely propels them into the playoff picture, as it would be a top-2 win on the year, with the only other one in contention being Alabama’s win at Georgia.
USC had to win out for any chance of getting in the playoffs. While they have no bad losses, the resume is not there to have the Trojans in at 9-3. They will likely be playing another ranked team in a bowl game this winter.
Michigan is the Big Ten’s last hope of being a four-bid league. I still expect three of the top-6 seeds to be the Big Ten.
SEC
Likely Scenario: 5 teams
Best Case Scenario: 6 teams
First Round Byes & In the Playoff Teams
Most of the SEC was either on a bye or playing out of conference – even FCS opponents.
Texas A&M played FCS Samford in a game that was not close. Now, they travel to Austin for their first game against a team with a winning conference record. While the Aggies are safely in the 12-team playoff field, a win locks them into the SEC Championship, but more importantly: a likely first round bye. A loss and win by either Alabama or Ole Miss knocks them from the SEC Championship game, and will likely leave the Aggies hosting a playoff game.
Georgia played a 1-9 Charlotte team last week, and didn’t break a sweat in the win. Georgia is currently locked in as a top-4 seed, meaning they would have a bye. However, Georgia is likely rooting for Auburn or Texas to win so the Bulldogs can go to the SEC Championship game. There is a chance Georgia would drop to the five-seed if Alabama wins the SEC Championship over Texas A&M, given the Crimson Tide beat Georgia in Athens this year.
Ole Miss was on a bye the week before the Egg Bowl, but that did not mean the Rebels were out of the news. Head coach Lane Kiffin will announce his intentions on where to coach next year the Saturday after the Egg Bowl. I’ll leave the speculation to everyone else. But it will be interesting to see how the College Football Playoff committee reacts if Kiffin should take another position and will not coach in the playoffs. All that matters until Kiffin’s announcement is one thing: win the Egg Bowl and make your first college football playoff appearance.
Oklahoma beat a battered Missouri team last week, but not in convincing fashion. Nonetheless, only the LSU Tigers stand in the way of the Sooners from their first playoff appearance under Brent Venables. The Sooners currently hold the eight seed over the Fighting Irish, the lowest seed to host a playoff game.
Alabama took down FCS Eastern Illinois last week. The Crimson Tide turn their focus to the Iron Bowl where they head to Auburn. While the Tigers are playing for bowl eligibility, Alabama likely holds the biggest swing among playoff teams. A win means the Tide will play in the SEC Championship game, with a chance to secure a first-round bye. But a loss will eliminate them from the playoffs.
Still Alive Teams
Vanderbilt heads to Knoxville to take on the Vols after they routed Kentucky on senior day. The Commodores will need some help ahead of them. A win over Tennessee likely will not propel Vandy into the top-10.
Week 14 is loaded for the SEC. Texas A&M and Georgia are locked into the 12-team field. And while Ole Miss, Oklahoma, and Alabama are currently in, there is little room for errors for those three. If Vanderbilt makes it into the field, it likely means one of the above have fallen.
Group of Six
Tulane remains the highest Group of Six team, as they handled business against Temple last week. The Green Wave are currently +115 to make the college football playoff, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. The current favorite is the team they will likely play in the American Championship – North Texas (-145). News did break Tuesday evening that North Texas’s head coach, Eric Morris, is accepting the vacant Oklahoma State head coaching position, but will coach the remainder of the season for North Texas.
James Madison (+900), South Florida (+1500) and Navy (+4000) are all extremely unlikely to make the playoff.
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