2025 College Football Playoff Landscape – Post Week 11
2025 College Football Playoff Landscape
Post Week 11
Last week saw the first reveal of the college football playoff committee’s rankings. Some teams found themselves in better positions than others, while some conferences found themselves in precarious positions. The Group of Six had no ranked teams, but found the Memphis Tigers as the leader in the clubhouse. That was short lived, as Memphis lost last week. Along with ranked teams falling, how did the college football landscape shift with only three weeks remaining in the regular season? Let’s take a look at each conference and see who is still alive for the 2025 College Football Playoff field after week 11.
2025 College Football Playoff Landscape – Post Week 10
2025 College Football Playoff Landscape – Post Week 9
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2025 College Football Playoff Rule Changes
In last year’s playoff format, the top four ranked conference championship game winners received the 1-4 seeds. The next highest conference championship game winner was guaranteed a spot into the field, but was not guaranteed a home field game.
The biggest change this year relates to those conference championship game winners: they will no longer receive a bye. Meaning, we can see any combination of conferences receive those four exclusive byes.
Another change we will see in November’s first playoff ranking reveal is how much the committee values the new schedule strength metric. Last year saw plenty of discussion on whether an 11-1 Indiana Hoosiers team should receive an at-large berth, despite playing a favorable Big Ten schedule and no Power Four non-conference opponents. Or should a 9-3 Alabama, South Carolina, or Ole Miss team get in from playing a more difficult schedule, despite taking more losses to inferior opponents.
First College Football Playoff Ranking
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ACC
Likely Scenario: 1 team
Best Case Scenario: 1 teams
In the Playoff Teams
After a week that saw the top two teams in the ACC fall, Miami finds themselves as the highest ranked ACC team. However, I question the ranking of the Hurricanes in the long term due to their unlikeliness of making the ACC Championship. SMU and Louisville both hold tiebreaker advantage over Miami, and SMU holds a one game lead. While they may be the highest ranked team, based on the current rankings, the Hurricanes would have to find themselves in the top-10 to find an at-large bid.
Still Alive Teams
Georgia Tech benefits from Virginia’s loss, soaring all the way up the top of the ACC standings. Two games stand between the Yellow Jackets and a trip to Charlotte – at Boston College and senior day against Pittsburgh. While a win over Georgia on a neutral field could help Tech make an at-large berth, their best bet is to win the ACC Championship.
Virginia’s loss last week to Wake Forest was a speed bump on their path to the ACC Championship. Luckily for Virginia, they find themselves as one of five teams with just one ACC loss. Two teams – Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh – play each other. SMU still has challenging games against Louisville and Cal. Their game at Duke this week is an elimination game in terms of an ACC bid.
Louisville suffered their second ACC loss to Cal. It’s an uphill climb for Louisville to make the ACC Championship. And while many will point out Louisville beat Miami and Pitt head-to-head, it has not been enough in the committee’s eyes. They will need significant help, along with finishing 3-0 the remainder of the season.
Pittsburgh is coming off a bye for a non-conference matchup against Notre Dame. Pittsburgh’s last three games all come against ranked teams, with the final two coming against Georgia Tech and Miami. The Panthers have plenty of opportunities to rise in the ACC – or even make an argument for an at-large bid if they run the table.
The shuffling atop the ACC ruins any chances for the conference to have multiple bids. The second highest ranked ACC team would need to climb at least six spots in the next three weeks. It seems unlikely, especially given the results the last few weeks.
More: Fantasy Notebook: Target & Snap Share Data from Week 10 (2025)
#10 Notre Dame (7-2)
Notre Dame handled business against Navy last week. All eyes are on Pitt this week as it is their last ranked matchup of the regular season. The Irish cannot afford another slipup the remainder of the way. The Irish are one spot away from hosting a playoff game.
Big 12
Likely Scenario: 1 team
Best Case Scenario: 2 team
In the Playoff Teams
Texas Tech won the lone top-10 matchup last week, and they jumped Ole Miss in the process. Their last two games come against Central Florida and West Virginia; they combine for a 3-10 record in the Big 12. Winning the last two should be enough to secure the Red Raiders their first playoff berth.
Still Alive Teams
As expected, the loser of the Texas Tech-BYU game fell out of the playoffs – for now. Luckily for BYU, the two immediate teams ahead of the Cougars face a top-10 matchup this week. If they should lose, BYU likely will jump them. Still, the Cougars must handle business the remainder of the season to land in the Big 12 Championship for a rematch to avenge their lone loss on the season.
Utah is likely bummed to find themselves behind BYU, despite losing to the Cougars head to head. I’m not sure if Utah has enough to leapfrog BYU, along with two SEC teams in Texas and Oklahoma. They will need some help to reach the 12-team field.
Cincinnati’s path is simple: they must knock off BYU next week and beat Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship to reach the College Football Playoff. Failure to do so will have the Bearcats playing in a bowl game this postseason.
Texas Tech once again seems to be the safest team in the Big 12. I believe there is still a chance for the Big 12 to secure two bids in this year’s playoff appearance, depending on how things shake out in the SEC.
Big Ten
Likely Scenario: 3 teams
Best Case Scenario: 4 teams
First Round Byes & In the Playoff Teams
Ohio State handled business against Purdue, while Indiana and Oregon survived road scares. All three remain comfortably in the playoffs, although Oregon’s remaining schedule is much more daunting.
Still Alive Teams
The teams still alive to make the Big Ten a four bid league will dwindle over the coming weeks. All have two losses and cannot afford another.
USC handled business against Northwestern last Friday. Now, they have a tall task against a feisty Iowa team that has given Indiana and Oregon fits already this year. Wins over the Hawkeyes and Oregon in their next two could propel USC firmly in the playoff at-large discussion.
Michigan is coming off a bye. Their next two come on the road to two of the bottom half teams in the Big Ten – Northwestern and Maryland. They must win those before a must-win game at home against Ohio State. If Michigan runs the table, the Wolverines are like USC and will be in the discussion of an at-large bid – along with the potential to be in the Big Ten Championship game, if things break right.
Iowa is kicking themselves with another close loss to a highly ranked team. If either the Indiana or Oregon game go their way, they are very much in the playoff conversation. Now, they try to play spoiler against USC on the road.
Washington had a favorable schedule to come down the stretch in conference play, but blew it against Wisconsin in unfavorable conditions. Injuries did not help the Huskies, either. Now, Washington will find themselves waiting until early December to figure out where they will go bowling this winter.
The Big Ten still sits pretty with three teams. There is a possibility the Big Ten can sneak a fourth team in the field, but it will take some help along with either USC or Michigan running the table and securing some eye-popping wins.
SEC
Likely Scenario: 4 teams
Best Case Scenario: 6 teams
First Round Byes & In the Playoff Teams
Texas A&M handled business against Missouri’s backup quarterback on the road. Many thought this would help the Aggies jump Indiana to the two-seed, but they remain steady at third overall. Their next two come at home against South Carolina and FCS Samford, before a road finale against Texas. That regular season finale will have plenty of eyes tuned in to see how the last few playoff spots shake out.
Alabama beat LSU the week after firing Brian Kelly. Now, the Crimson Tide turn their attention to the Oklahoma Sooners in their last home game against a FBS team. This is one of the three biggest games in the SEC in terms of playoff implications. The Crimson Tide are in the field, but winning out in the regular season likely lands them a bye in the playoffs.
Georgia’s last SEC game is this week, where they take on the newest team in the 12-team field: the Texas Longhorns. The Bulldogs cannot afford a slipup, as they have a neutral site game against Georgia Tech in the regular season finale.
Ole Miss played their final nonconference game of the year against Citadel last week. Now, they have two games against Florida and the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State. They should finish the season 11-1, but a loss down the stretch with their schedule could see the Rebels drop out of the playoff picture.
Still Alive Teams
Oklahoma finds themselves as the first team out of the playoffs this week. But the Sooners have an opportunity to be in the top-10 next week: beat the Alabama Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa this Saturday. Doing so likely jumps the Sooners into hosting their first round playoff game. If not, I don’t believe a win over Michigan and at Tennessee is enough to put them in the field.
Vanderbilt survived in overtime against Auburn last week – a phrase most college football fans are not used to hearing. Ranked 14th, the Commodores need some help to get into the field. They must run the table and beat Kentucky and Tennessee in Neyland, along with help in the SEC and other conferences.
Missouri could not salvage their season with backup Matt Zollers. The third loss – and in the fashion the Aggies won – eliminates any hope for the Tigers to make the playoffs.
We knew the SEC had the most playoff teams in the field. But we did not know how the remaining teams would shake out. Turns out, the next two teams outside the playoffs are from the Southeastern Conference. Five teams is very much on the table for the SEC.
Group of Six
South Florida now finds themselves as the betting favorite to represent the Group of Six in the College Football Playoff. Their tallest task remaining comes this week against Navy, with both teams having just one loss in conference play. Behind South Florida in terms of betting favorites would be…North Texas. The Mean Green’s lone loss this year came to South Florida by 27 points at home. Their remaining schedule does not have a team with a winning record in conference in their last three.
James Madison has the third best odds to represent the Group of Six. The Dukes continue to dominate the Sun Belt, wining their last four by at least ten points. They must win the table to have a chance to be the Group of Six representative. Their last two are their more difficult games – against Washington State and at Coastal Carolina. The regular season finale likely will determine who comes out of the Sun Belt – East.
Tulane upset Memphis last week to really shake up the American standings. Like North Texas, Tulane does not face a team above 500 in conference play in their next three. Winning out will put them in the thick of what could be a four-team tie atop the American. Memphis and Navy are now considered long-shots to represent the Group of Six.
For the second week in a row, the Mountain West took a tumble. This time, I’m not sure there is enough time to recover. For that reason, I would no longer focus on Boise State, UNLV, or San Diego State as a possible Group of Six representative.
Who do you see making the 2025 College Football Playoff? Let me know on X!
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