2024 NFL Week 6 Best Bets
2024 NFL Week 6 Best Bets
We are now into the second quarter of the NFL season. With the second week of byes and international games here, we are in store for another full Sunday of football. Here are my favorite Week 6 NFL bets.
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Week 4: 5-0 (+5 units)
Year to Date: 11-9-1 (+.96 units)
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4) vs. Chicago Bears (3-2)*
Chicago -2.5; O/U 44.5
Under 44.5 (-112)
* Game in London
The Jaguars finally got off the mat last week and won their first game over the Colts. But this Bears defense will give them more fits than the Colts. Since Gus Bradley took over as the Colts’ DC 2022, the Jaguars average 31.2 PPG against the Colts; they average 21.2 PPG across the other 34 games. The Under has hit in the last five games the Jaguars have traveled to London, with the game total averaging 37 PPG. We are also getting a rookie quarterback making his 6th career start against a team that is used to the travel that comes with the annual London games. I’m on the Under in the last (American) game at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in 2024.
Washington Commanders (4-1) vs. Baltimore Ravens (3-2)
Baltimore -7; O/U 52
Washington +7 (-115)
Teams that are an underdog by more than a touchdown are now 19-3 ATS this season. But forget that trend: Washington is currently the best offense in the league, averaging 31 PPG and Jayden Daniels is running away with OROY after five weeks. This Ravens defense is not the same without Mike Macdonald, allowing opposing quarterbacks to average 8.1 YPA (29th) and completing 66.8% of their attempts. Washington has the offense to keep up – or outrun – the Ravens. Commanders keep it within the number.
Arizona Cardinals (2-3) vs. Green Bay Packers (3-2)
Green Bay -5.5; O/U 49.5
Arizona +5.5 (-112)
We hit on the Cardinals last week, and that makes Kyler Murray 18-6-1 ATS as a road underdog and 5-1 ATS on the road since returning from injury last season. The Packers rank 23rd in pass defense this year (231.6 YPG; 7.3 YPA). While they force interceptions – 9, 2nd most in the league and highest interception rate at 5.1% – Kyler has an interception rate of just 1.6% since returning from injury. I like the Cardinals to keep this close and potentially pull the upset.
Tampa Bay (3-2) vs. New Orleans (2-3)
New Orleans +3.5; O/U 41.5
Under 41.5 (-112)
The high powered New Orleans offense was fun while it lasted. The Saints scored 91 points in their first two games this year, only to score 49 in their last three. Since that offensive firepower slowed down, the Under is 2-1 in Saints’ games. And the only instance of an Over hitting came when the Falcons scored two defensive touchdowns; these three games averaged just 34 PPG of offensive scores. Now Derek Carr is out, leaving either Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler at quarterback against a blitz-heavy Bucs defense. I like this divisional round game to fall Under.
Detroit (3-1) vs. Dallas (3-2)
Dallas +3; O/U 52
Detroit -3 (-112)
Dallas has failed to cover their last four home games. As an away favorite, Detroit is 6-2 ATS since the start of 2022. Detroit runs the most 12-personnel in the league, a spot where Dallas struggles. Against 12-personnel, Dallas ranks 23rd in run plays and last in play action. Dak Prescott and the passing game will have to try and keep up against a Lions defense that will get after the quarterback. I’m on the Lions to win in Jerry’s World.
Outright Underdogs (.5 Units):
Week 1: 0-1 (-.5 units)
Year to Date: 2-7 (-1.9 units)
Jacksonville vs. Chicago +102 (London)
Trevor Lawrence is 3-1 in London and now faces a rookie quarterback in his 6th career start. I like Jacksonville to win this low scoring game.
New York Jets vs. Buffalo +114
There has to be a charge after you fire your head coach and remove play calling duties from your offensive coordinator. Jets pull the upset to finish the week in the Meadowlands.
What are some of your favorite Week 6 NFL best bets? Let me know on X! Follow me @DrewRoberts_ on X for more football content!
RANKINGS | Weekly | DYNASTY |
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