2024 NFL Week 5 Best Bets
2024 NFL Week 5 Best Bets
Week 5 offers another great slate for the NFL. The early bye weeks are starting, and we get our first international game between the Jets and Vikings. Plus, Thursday Night Football marks the first of 55 consecutive days with collegiate or NFL games. It doesn’t get much better than that. Here are my favorite Week 5 NFL bets.
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Week 4: 1-4 (-3.44 units)
Year to Date: 6-9-1 (-4.04 units)
New York Jets (2-2) vs. Minnesota Vikings (4-0)*
Minnesota -2.5; O/U 40.5
Under 40.5 (-110)
* Game in London
Sam Darnold has earned praise for his play on the Vikings way to a 4-0 start. But Brian Flores and this Vikings defense has been among the league’s best through the first quarter of the season. Meanwhile, the Jets are off to a slow start, due to an offense that ranks 21st in scoring (19 PPG). This is the first time Aaron Rodgers will face a Flores defense since he became a coordinator/head coach. Both teams rank in the top-5 in defensive scoring as they head across the pond to London. I think both defenses remain strong in this one, and the Under hits.
Carolina Panthers (1-3) vs. Chicago Bears (2-2)
Chicago -4; O/U 40.5
Over 40.5 (-115)
The Over has cashed in all three of Andy Dalton’s starts with Carolina. The Panthers have averaged 29 PPG in that span. While Chicago’s defense has been the star of the team through four weeks, this is a prime opportunity for Caleb Williams and company to get the offense on the right track. Carolina has allowed a touchdown on 11 of their opponent’s 12 red zone trips this year. This has plagued them to the bottom of the league in defensive scoring (32.3 PPG), with three of their four opponents clearing their Team Total lines this season.
Arizona Cardinals (1-3) vs. San Francisco 49ers (2-2)
San Francisco -7.5; O/U 50
Arizona Cardinals +7.5 (-115)
We hit on Arizona as an underdog in Week 1. That makes Kyler Murray 17-6-2 ATS as a road underdog in his career. Teams that are an underdog by at least a touchdown are 17-3 ATS and 11-9 SU. I expect this divisional showdown to be within a touchdown, making the Cardinals the play in this one.
Green Bay Packers (2-2) vs. Los Angeles Rams (1-3)
Los Angeles +3; O/U 49
Green Bay -3 (-120)
Jordan Love returned from injury to face one of the best defenses in the league with the Vikings. Now, he travels across the country to face one of the league’s worst defenses in the Rams. Only the Panthers have allowed more points this season than the Rams (28.8 PPG). Even without Christian Watson (left high-ankle sprain), there are plenty of weapons in this Packers’ offense. Green Bay gets back on track in Week 5.
(Mon.) New Orleans Saints (2-2) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)
Kansas City -5.5; O/U 43
Under 43 (-110)
Kansas City is now without Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco. Travis Kelce has been slow, leaving rookie Xavier Worthy as the primary target for Mahomes. The Under has hit in eight of the last 11 home games for the Chiefs since Matt Nagy returned as offensive coordinator. For the Saints, their electric start on offense has halted after Week 2. The Saints outscored the Panthers and Cowboys 91-29 the first two weeks; they’ve lost the last two to the Eagles and Falcons by a combined score of 36-41. I’m expecting the primetime Unders to continue in Arrowhead in Week 5.
Outright Underdogs (.5 Units):
Week 1: 0-3 (-1.5 units)
Year to Date: 2-6 (-1.4 units)
Cleveland @ Washington +130
Weird line (WAS -3.5) considering how hot and cold these two teams are. This is a significant upgrade in talent on defense compared to what Jayden Daniels has faced (Arizona, Cincinnati, and the New York Giants). Cleveland is desperate, and I like them to cause trouble for Daniels and company.
What are some of your favorite Week 5 NFL best bets? Let me know on X! Follow me @DrewRoberts_ on X for more football content!
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