2024 NFL Week 16 Best Bets
2024 NFL Week 16 Best Bets
As the holiday season approaches, so does the conclusion of the 2024 NFL regular season. Nearly half of the games come against divisional opponents. And with just three weeks left in the regular season, each matchup turns more crucial for both the playoffs and draft position. Here are my favorite Week 16 NFL bets.
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Week 15: 2-3 (-1.52 units)
Year to Date: 28-30-1 (-5.52 units)
(Sat.) Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4) vs. Baltimore Ravens (9-5)
Baltimore -6.5; O/U 45
Pittsburgh +6.5 (-112)
Under 45 (-110)
A divisional rematch of the Week 11 matchup in Pittsburgh, one that saw the Steelers win 18-16 without recording a touchdown. This matchup hit on multiple trends in this rivalry; the game total failed to break 40 for the 11th time in the last 13 meetings. This last matchup was the first in the last six that even topped 30.
11 of the last 13 meetings have been decided by seven points or less (eight of 13 within six points), and the Steelers are 5-1 in Baltimore since 2018. I’m on the Steelers and the Under in this AFC North rivalry.
Tennessee Titans (3-11) vs. Indianapolis Colts (6-8)
Indianapolis -3.5; O/U 42.5
Indianapolis -3.5 (-108)
The Colts are 3-5 ATS this year against teams in the playoff picture, but 5-1 ATS against teams outside the playoffs. Tennessee is a league worst 2-12 ATS, going 1-5 ATS when an underdog by one possession. While still grim, the Colts have an outside possibility of sneaking their way into the playoffs, while the Titans are fighting for a high draft pick. I like the Colts in this AFC South matchup.
Cleveland Browns (3-11) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (6-8)
Cincinnati -8.5; O/U 46.5
Under 46.5 (-108)
We have three games with Joe Burrow going against a Jim Schwartz defense. Those three contests saw the Bengals score a total of 47 points, with none of the three game totals clearing this number. The Browns are trotting out Dorian Thompson-Robinson, their third stringer. In his three starts as a rookie, Cleveland scored 3, 13, and 12 points, respectively. As bad as the Bengals defense has been this year (27.6 PPG; 31st in scoring defense), I don’t expect DTR to turn the switch that quick. I’m on the Under in the second AFC North matchup of the weekend.
Minnesota Vikings (12-2) vs. Seattle Seahawks (8-6)
Seattle +3; O/U 42.5
Minnesota -3 (-112)
The NFC North – outside of the Bears – has handled business outside of divisional play. The Lions, Vikings, and Packers are a combined 26-4 this year against teams outside the NFC North, including 21-9 ATS. Meanwhile, Geno Smith was banged up during the Sunday night contest against the Packers, but expects to play. Smith and the Seahawks are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home contests. I’m on the Vikings to cover this one as they play for the NFC North and the coveted 1 seed.
Outright Underdogs (.5 Units):
Week 14: 0-1 (-.5 units)
Year to Date: 10-16 (-.95 units)
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore +230
TJ Watt is a go for the Steelers, and the Steelers are 8-1 in the last nine. This includes winning the last four in Baltimore. The Steelers cause havoc for Lamar Jackson, and I think they can do it again this week.
What are some of your favorite Week 16 NFL best bets? Let me know on X! Follow me @DrewRoberts_ on X for more football content!
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