2024 NFL Week 14 Best Bets
2024 NFL Week 14 Best Bets
A week after a full 16-game slate, Week 14 offers the second bye-mageddon. Six teams are off this week, matching Week 12 as the most teams on bye for the season. No matter, as this is the last week of byes and we still have a great slate with nearly half the games between divisional foes. Here are my favorite Week 14 NFL bets.
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Week 13: 2-3 (-1.4 units)
Year to Date: 25-25-1 (-2.91 units)
New York Jets (3-9) vs. Miami Dolphins (5-7)
Miami -5.5; O/U 45
Miami -5.5 (-112)
Since Mike McDaniel joined the Dolphins in 2022, the Dolphins are 6-2 ATS at home against divisional opponents. Both of the failures to cover came against the Bills. The Jets are 3-9-1 ATS on the road since the start of last year. Aaron Rodgers has played poorly on the road this year, completing under 60% of his attempts while throwing eight touchdowns to six interceptions. His 3.86% touchdown rate and 2.91% interception rate in these games is far worse than his career average. I’m on the Dolphins to keep things rolling since Tua’s return.
Atlanta Falcons (6-6) vs. Minnesota Vikings (10-2)
Minnesota -5.5; O/U 45.5
Under 45.5 (-110)
Atlanta’s offense has sputtered the last three games, in particular to a decline in quarterback play. The Falcons have scored just 40 points in the last three, while Kirk Cousins is averaging 6.96 YPA, throwing six interceptions and zero touchdowns. Brian Flores has been one of the best coordinators this year, and his Vikings’ defense is the best at stopping the run, allowing just 81.3 YPG and five total touchdowns on the ground. I think the Vikings defense is the star of the show and slows down Cousins’ return to Minnesota. I’m on the Under in this one.
Buffalo Bills (10-2) vs. Los Angeles Rams (6-6)
Los Angeles +3.5; O/U 49.5
Buffalo -3.5 (-108)
Josh Allen and the Bills are looking for a clean sweep of the NFC West; the Bills have already won two of three by 20+. The Bills are 11-2 against the NFC since the start of 2022 with a point differential of +168 (12.9 PPG). This has been the best division for Josh Allen (7-1) to play against, as he’s completing 75.5% of his attempts while throwing 22 touchdowns (8.3% touchdown rate) and just six interceptions (2.3% interception rate). I like the Bills to continue on their winning ways and make it eight straight victories, while covering for the seventh time in that time.
Outright Underdogs (.5 Units):
Week 11: 1-1 (+.15 units)
Year to Date: 9-14 (-.57 units)
Chicago @ San Francisco +154
Matt Eberflus was fired after baffling time management decisions on Thanksgiving. When teams make a significant move like firing a coach or making a change at quarterback – like the Panthers with Bryce Young/Andy Dalton or the Browns with Jameis Winston – there tends to be a bump in play. I’m expecting that for the Bears, who have lost three straight by a margin of a field goal or less. Bears pull the upset after traveling out west.
Seattle @ Arizona +124
Geno Smith is 5-0 as Seattle’s quarterback against Arizona, with four wins coming by 10 points. Jonathan Gannon is just 2-7 in divisional games for the Cardinals. I’m on Seattle to make it six straight against Arizona.
What are some of your favorite Week 14 NFL best bets? Let me know on X! Follow me @DrewRoberts_ on X for more football content!
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