2024 NFL Week 12 Best Bets
2024 NFL Week 12 Best Bets
One of the two bye heavy weeks of the year, as six teams are off this week. Nonetheless, there is a jam packed NFL Sunday on the books before a 16-game Week 13. A handful of divisional games are on the docket that will shake the playoff picture with just over a month left in the regular season. Here are my favorite Week 12 NFL bets.
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Week 11: 2-2 (-.20 units)
Year to Date: 21-21-1 (-2.36 units)
Detroit Lions (9-1) vs. Indianapolis Colts (5-6)
Indianapolis +7.5; O/U 50.5
Indianapolis +7.5 (-115)
The Lions are coming off a dominant win (52-6) over Jaguars in the absence of Trevor Lawrence. Unfortunately, the Lions lost linebacker Alex Anzalone in the process; he’ll likely be out the rest of the regular season. Anthony Richardson is 5-1 ATS this year when playing a full game (6-1 ATS in starts). Each of those games was decided by a touchdown or less. I’ll fade the Lions after their monster win last week.
New England Patriots (3-8) vs. Miami Dolphins (4-6)
Miami -7.5; O/U 46.5
Miami -7.5 (-105)
Tua Tagovailoa is a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS against the Patriots, with an average margin of victory of 9 PPG. In the four home games, that margin is 11.5 PPG. In three games away from Gilette, Drake Maye and the Patriots average just 17.3 PPG. Miami has covered their last three with Tagovailoa returning from concussion protocol. I like the Dolphins to continue their winning streak over the Patriots under the Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel combo.
Baltimore Ravens (7-4) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (7-3)
Los Angeles 2.5; O/U 51
Over 51 (-108)
Lamar Jackson is 6-2 on Monday night, throwing for 20 touchdowns without throwing an interception. And while the Ravens had a stinker last week against their arch rival Pittsburgh, that game tends to fall under; 11 of the last 13 have now fallen under 40 points for the game total. The Over is now 9-2 in Baltimore games this year, and 5-1 in road games. Baltimore’s defense is the weakness of this team, and the Chargers protect the ball. The Chargers have committed just five turnovers this season, scoring at least 26 in their last four. This will likely be one of the better primetime games of the season. I’m on the over in the Week 12 finale.
Outright Underdogs (.5 Units):
Week 11: 2-1 (+1.1 units)
Year to Date: 8-12 (-.22 units)
San Francisco @ Green Bay +205
Kyle Shanahan is 4-2 vs. Matt LaFleur. That includes a game where Jimmy Garoppolo had eight pass attempts. The 49ers will be without Brock Purdy and Nick Bosa, but they are 4-3 in their last seven as a road underdog. This is a desperate team, and I think they are live for an upset in Lambeau.
What are some of your favorite Week 12 NFL best bets? Let me know on X! Follow me @DrewRoberts_ on X for more football content!
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