2024 NFL Week 11 Best Bets
2024 NFL Week 11 Best Bets
Week 11 on the NFL calendar has some great matchups. One of the best rivalries in the sport takes place in Pittsburgh. A battle of dynamic quarterbacks takes place in Buffalo and Los Angeles. Not to mention other divisional matchups and games with high stakes. Here are my favorite Week 11 NFL bets.
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Week 10: 1-2 (-1.20 units)
Year to Date: 19-19-1 (-2.16 units)
Green Bay Packers (6-3) vs. Chicago Bears (4-5)
Chicago +5.5; O/U 40.5
Green Bay -5.5 (-108)
This is the fifth meeting between Matt LaFleur and Matt Eberflus; the Packers are 4-0 with each win coming by eight or more points. The Bears are in a downward spiral, losing their last three after a trip to London where they beat the Jags. To make matters worse, the offense is sputtering with Caleb Williams. The Bears have failed to score a touchdown on their last 23 offensive drives. 23! Even with the firing of Shane Waldron, the Packers are coming off a bye and should be ready for this divisional opponent. I’m on the Packers to hand the Bears their fourth straight loss.
Baltimore Ravens (7-3) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2)
Pittsburgh +3.5; O/U 48.5
Under 48.5 (-110)
The Ravens are the best team to the Over this year, hitting in nine of ten. You’ll find Baltimore atop most offensive categories. Pittsburgh is no slouch, either. Since turning to Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh is averaging 30.3 PPG during their three-game win streak.
But this rivalry tends to be low scoring – since 2018, the total has gone over 40 in just two of 12 games. The last five have not topped 30. While both offenses look strong, both teams have proven to be great at scheming against one another. I think this matchup bucks the trend of the Over cashing in Ravens’ games. I’m on the Under.
Cincinnati Bengals (4-6) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (6-3)
Los Angeles -1.5; O/U 48
Los Angeles -1.5 (-112)
Under 48 (-112)
The Chargers have not allowed an opponent to score 20 points in a game this year. The Chargers are the best in the league in defensive scoring (13.1 PPG); the Bengals rank 26th (26.2 PPG). Last week was the first week that a Chargers game total eclipsed 40 points, and it did so in garbage time with just under a minute to go. The Chargers also limit their opponent’s possession due to minimizing turnovers; Justin Herbert has just one interception on the year, with his sole interception coming 209 attempts ago. The Chargers have also not lost a fumble this year. I’m on the Chargers and the Under in this one.
Outright Underdogs (.5 Units):
Week 10: 2-0 (+1.42 units)
Year to Date: 6-11 (-1.32 units)
Indianapolis @ New York (A) +170
The Jets should be favored over maybe a handful of teams in the NFL, but the Colts are not one of them. Anthony Richardson is back starting for the Colts, and paired with Jonathan Taylor, I think the Colts can exploit the poor Jets defense.
Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore +150
The best rivalry in the league, it’s hard to not take the underdog in this matchup. Pittsburgh has won seven of the last eight in this series, and Tomlin is 17-11 SU as a home underdog. I like the Steelers in this one.
Kansas City @ Buffalo +110
Have we not learned our lesson with Patrick Mahomes as a home underdog? Mahomes is 12-1-1 ATS in his career as an underdog. I know it’s their arch rival in the AFC, but I simply can’t fade a Chiefs team that continually finds a way to win. I’m on the Chiefs to move to 10-0.
What are some of your favorite Week 11 NFL best bets? Let me know on X! Follow me @DrewRoberts_ on X for more football content!
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