2024 Managing Rookie Expectations: Tight Ends
Managing Expectations For 2024 Rookie Tight Ends
Year after year, the NFL welcomes a new pool of talented rookies. This year’s rookie class is regarded as one of the most talented groups in recent memory.
But how do tight ends fair in their rookie seasons? How should we be managing expectations for the 2024 rookie tight ends? Let’s look at how rookies have performed in their first NFL season – and how they back it up in their sophomore season.
More: 2024 Managing Rookie Expectations: Wide Receivers
Rookie Finishes
To keep the ‘Managing Rookie Expectations‘ series consistent, we go back the last seven years. In that span, 102 tight ends were selected in the NFL Draft. Based on total points in half-point per reception scoring formats, here is how rookies finished in their first season:
Prior to 2023, only two tight ends – Kyle Pitts (TE5; 8.8 PPG) and Evan Engram (TE4; 9.4 PPG) – finished as a top-12 tight end as a rookie. Then Sam LaPorta had the best season by a rookie tight end in this seven year span. He’s the only tight end to average over 10 points per game in half-PPR format (11.6). His 184.9 points is more than 40 points better than the next closest rookie, Evan Engram. And he finished as the TE1 in fantasy football despite being a late round pick in redraft leagues, or even going undrafted.
Outside of those three, just nine others have finished as a TE2. Meaning: most rookie tight ends are not reliable fantasy football options. But for those who have, let’s look if there are any trends based on their draft capital.
1st Round Selections
Of the 102 tight ends selected over the last six years, here is the breakdown of which round they were selected:
Two of the eight first round rookie tight ends finished top-12 at the position. However, three of the five who were outside the top-12 as rookies – David Njoku (TE9; 7.2 PPG), O.J. Howard (TE11; 10.4 PPG) and T.J. Hockenson (TE4; 9.2 PPG) – were top-12 in their second season. Noah Fant just missed TE1 status, finishing TE13 his second season, while Hayden Hurst was TE37.
So, if you are banking on early success for rookie tight ends, make sure the team used first round capital. But what if that first season wasn’t a hit?
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Rookie TE2s
In the last six seasons, we have seen just nine (8.8%) tight ends finish as a TE2 in their rookie season. While this is not ideal, each improved on that finish in their second season.
Five of the eight finished as a TE1 the following season. Cade Otton had low expectations as the fourth option in Tampa Bay. Noah Fant (TE13) missed two games in 2020, while finishing just seven points outside of a TE9 finish. Chris Herndon played in just two games his second season.
Excluding Herndon’s shortened 2019 season, rookie TE2’s points per game average jumped from 5.8 to 8.1 in their sophomore campaigns. Dalton Kincaid is the lone TE2 rookie from last season and is currently being drafted as a mid tier TE1 in redraft leagues.
Conclusion
Despite LaPorta’s spectacular rookie season, tight ends tend to take time to transition from the college ranks to the NFL. But based on those who have made an impact, you should bank on first round picks. Enter Brock Bowers, who is regarded as one of the top tight end prospects in recent memory.
Ben Sinnott is another tight end to monitor in this 2024 rookie tight end class. He was the lone tight end selected in the second round and could find himself in an early role in Washington. Whoever you target among these rookie tight ends, just remember to be patient when managing expectations with the 2024 rookie tight ends.
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