2024 Managing Rookie Expectations: Quarterbacks
Managing Expectations For 2024 Rookie Quarterbacks
Year after year, the NFL welcomes a new pool of talented rookies. And every year, quarterbacks soar up NFL Draft boards. After all: it is the most crucial position in professional sports.
But how do quarterbacks fair in their rookie seasons? How should we be managing expectations for the 2024 rookie quarterbacks? Let’s look at how rookies have performed in their first NFL season – and how they back it up in their sophomore season.
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Rookie Finishes
To keep the ‘Managing Rookie Expectations‘ series consistent, we go back to 2017. In that span, 80 quarterbacks were selected in the NFL Draft. Based on total points in 4-point per passing touchdown scoring formats, here is how rookies finished in their first season:
Rookie quarterbacks have been unreliable in fantasy football leagues in that span. This is based on total points, so any quarterback who doesn’t start right away is put behind the eight-ball. The two QB1 finishes came from Justin Herbert in 2020 (QB10) and Kyler Murray in 2019 (QB7). Some quarterbacks – Joe Burrow in 2020 and Deshaun Watson in 2017 – began the year strong, but suffered season-ending injuries. Burrow averaged 17.9 PPG over his first 10 weeks, while Watson averaged 24.1 PPG over a seven-week span. The 2023 rookie class showed promise, with C.J. Stroud averaging 18.5 PPG (QB13; 15-games) and Anthony Richardson averaging 18.4 PPG (QB37; 4-games).
But for those few who have performed, we look at where they were selected in that April’s NFL Draft.
1st Round Selections
Of the 80 quarterbacks selected over the last seven years, here is the breakdown of which round they were selected:
As mentioned in the intro, it should be no surprise that the standout rookies were first round selections. Their draft stock rises due to their importance to the team. Even so, just 8.3% of first round rookies have finished as a QB1. And 62.5% were not reliable, even in Superflex or 2-Quarterback leagues.
That number gets worse when you move to Day 2 and 3 selections. Gardner Minshew, a 6th round selection in 2019, is the only non-first round pick to finish as a QB2 since 2017. Minshew averaged 16.1 PPG and scored 209.7 points in 4-point per passing touchdown leagues, finishing as the QB23 as a rookie.
So while rookie quarterbacks may not be the most reliable, how do they progress into their sophomore season?
Year 2 Quarterbacks
Based on their draft year, here is how quarterbacks faired in their second year in the NFL.
By round selected:
A much more promising performance across the board. Each draft class from 2017 thru 2022 has produced a QB1, with every year but 2019 producing multiple QB1s in their second year. From 2018 thru 2020, a second year quarterback scored the most points in fantasy football – Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Kyler Murray. Mahomes and Jackson were named MVP in their second season.
11 of the 12 second year quarterbacks that finished as a QB1 finished top-8. Only Sam Howell finished outside the mark (QB11). Patrick Mahomes and Howell did not finish as a QB3 or better as a rookie, as neither played during the fantasy football season as a rookie.
Conclusion
We get excited about the hype surrounding each rookie class, yet it’s important to remember it takes time to translate to the NFL. Rookie quarterbacks have proven, in spurts, they can help your fantasy football team. But more often than not, the veteran quarterbacks are more reliable.
Looking back at trends, it is likely only one or two of the 2024 rookie quarterbacks will contribute in their first season. Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels have clear paths to starting right away, and their current preseason average draft position (ADP) hovers between low-end QB1 and high-end QB2. J.J. McCarthy and Bo Nix have a chance to start Week 1, but likely will go undrafted in redraft leagues. Drake Maye and Michael Penix Jr. could look to be backups to start the year and are off most fantasy football manager’s radar.
But the better option would be with second year quarterback CJ Stroud or Anthony Richardson. Both quarterbacks are entering their second season in their respective system. The Colts added wide receiver Adonai Mitchell in the 2nd round of this year’s NFL Draft, while the Texans added veterans in running back Joe Mixon and wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Both quarterbacks are ranked this preseason as a mid-tier QB1, but both possess the upside as the QB1.
Will Levis is also a second-year player to monitor this season. The Titans hired former Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan as their new head coach, while also adding Tyler Boyd from Cincinnati and Calvin Ridley from Jacksonville. He will likely find himself undrafted in redraft, one quarterback leagues this fall.
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