2024 College Football Week 7 Best Bets
2024 College Football Week 7 Best Bets
The Week 6 college football weekend looked like a complete dud. But it was the craziest weekend to date. Five of the top 11 teams lost, and others had scares. Now, we get a heavy hitting weekend with five straight days of college football. Ohio State/Oregon, Ole Miss/LSU, and the Red River Rivalry highlight a special weekend for college football. Here are my favorite Week 7 college football bets.
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Week 6: 3-1 (+1.9 Units)
Year to Date: 13-15-1 (-3.36 Units)
(Friday) UNLV (4-1) vs. Utah State (1-4)
Utah State +19; O/U 64.5
UNLV -19 (-110)
UNLV lost a tough one last Friday night, bumping them out of the AP top-25 poll. But UNLV still has a path to the College Football Playoff if they finish the year without a blemish. Barry Odom is a perfect 8-0 ATS on the road since being named the head coach in 2023, and 3-0 ATS when favored by double-digits. Utah State has allowed 48.3 PPG in their four FBS games (1-3 ATS), and currently rank 131st of 134 FBS teams in defensive scoring. This could be a potential look-ahead spot with a road trip to Corvallis to take on Oregon State next week, but I think UNLV bounces back to avenge last week’s loss to Syracuse.
#21 Missouri (4-1) vs. Massachusetts (1-5)
Massachusetts +27.5; O/U 53.5
1st Half Over 28.5 (-105)
Over 53.5 (-110)
Missouri is coming off the most embarrassing loss of the weekend, losing by 31 at Texas A&M as a CFP hopeful. While Auburn is on deck and the offense has not looked great this season, this game at UMass is an opportunity for Missouri’s offense to get back on track. Since 2018, the Over is 8-2 when Massachusetts plays a Power Four opponent. The Power Four teams average 30.3 PPG in the first half and 51.1 PPG for the game. That factors in a pitiful win by Texas A&M, 20-3. Excluding that game, Power Four opponents average 32.6 PPG in the first half and 54.6 PPG for the game. Missouri has the potential to clear this total on their own. This is my favorite play on the Week 7 schedule.
Cal (3-2) vs. #22 Pittsburgh (5-0)
Pittsburgh -3; O/U 59.5
Pittsburgh -3 (-115)
This is the third time in six weeks the Cal Golden Bears are traveling across country. While they split at Auburn and Florida State, they didn’t come off a devastating loss the week prior like they did to #8 Miami last week, blowing a 25-point lead. Pat Narduzzi and the Panthers have covered seven of their last nine at home going back to 2023. Eli Holstein is legit and faces a Cal defense that allows 7.7 YPA in their two ACC games. Pitt keeps their undefeated season alive and covers against Cal on Saturday.
#4 Penn State (5-0) vs. USC (3-2)
USC +4; O/U 50.5
Penn State -4 (-115)
Since the start of 2021, James Franklin and Penn State are 10-1 ATS as a road favorite. They are also 20-5-1 ATS against unranked opponents. Lincoln Riley has only been a home dog once, last year against then ranked #5 Washington. As a 3.5-point dog, USC lost 52-42. This is by far the biggest test to date for USC since joining the Big Ten. Nick Singleton is expected to be back this week after a surprise inactive last week. USC has allowed big runs of 53, 41, 63, and 40 yards in their three Big Ten games this year. USC linebacker Eric Gentry has been a focal point of the defense, and has been dealing with concussions and likely out in this one. I like Penn State to cover in the Coliseum.
Outright Underdogs (.5 Units):
Week 5: 0-3 (-1.5 Unit)
Year to Date: 4-11 (-2 Units)
Northern Illinois @ Bowling Green +114
Northern Illinois is 18-15 SU as an underdog, including 12-9 on the road. This improves to 5-3 since the start of 2022. There is only one meeting between Thomas Hammock and Scot Loeffler; Northern Illinois won 34-26 in DeKalb, Illinois. Northern Illinois for the upset
Cincinnati @ Central Florida +124
Scott Satterfield is 13-8 ATS and 15-6 SU off a bye. At UCF, Gus Malzahn is 1-5 ATS the week before playing a ranked opponent; the Knights travel to #11 Iowa State next week and are just a 3-point favorite this week. UCF’s player’s minds could be elsewhere with Hurricane Milton arriving this week. I’m on Cincinnati to pull the slight upset.
West Virginia vs. #11 Iowa State +120
Neil Brown is 6-8 SU as a home dog since arriving in Morgantown, including 3-2 in his last five as a home dog in Big 12 play. West Virginia won the last meeting against the Cyclones in Morgantown. Iowa State is on upset alert Saturday night.
Colorado vs. #18 Kansas State +145
Deion Sanders and Colorado are often overhyped. But one area they have thrived since Prime arrived in Boulder is in the underdog role. While they have yet to win as a home dog (0-3), they have covered in each of those three. Kansas State is just 5-7 SU & ATS off a bye under Chris Klieman. The Big 12 sees multiple upsets this week, capped off with Colorado pulling the upset in Boulder.
What are your favorite Week 7 college football bets? Let me know on X! Follow me @DrewRoberts_ for more college football and NFL content
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