2024 College Football Week 4 Best Bets
2024 College Football Week 4 Best Bets
Many thought the Week 3 college football slate would be boring, but it was anything but. #1 Georgia had a scare in Lexington. Alabama proved dominance in Madison. And all of the AP Top-25 teams took care of business against unranked opponents. Now, Week 4 gets into the heart of the college football season. Four ranked matchups in conference play across the SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12, plus many other great matchups. Here are my favorite Week 4 college football bets.
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Week 3: 3-2 (+.8 Units)
Year to Date: 5-10 (-5.86 Units)
(Friday) #24 Illinois (3-0) vs. #22 Nebraska (3-0)
Nebraska -9; O/U 43.5
Under 43.5 (-112)
Both teams enter this ranked matchup with the Under a combined 6-0. In Nebraska’s nine Big Ten games under Matt Rhule, the average game total is 33 PPG. In their five home Big Ten contests, the Cornhusker defense allows 18.8 PPG. That bakes in a blowout home loss to last year’s National Champion Michigan Wolverines, 45-7.
Illinois’s defense has traveled well under Bret Bielema. The Illini allow just 18.7 PPG in their 13 road contests with Bielema. The Under is 5-1 against ranked opponents and 15-4-2 as an underdog under Bielema. In one of the four ranked matchups of the week, I expect this one to be low scoring. I’m on the Under in Lincoln.
Kent State (0-3) vs. #10 Penn State (2-0)
Penn State -49; O/U 55
Over 55 (-115)
Penn State could hit this on their own. Penn State is coming off a bye, which came at a nice time after a closer contest than expected against Bowling Green, 34-27. Kent State has played four Power Four programs with Kenni Burns since the start of 2023. Kent State has allowed 52.5 PPG in those four games with the Over being 3-1. In the three hits, the opponent cleared that number on their own. The Over is 7-2 in Kent State’s nine road games since the start of 2023. This defense isn’t stopping Drew Allar and the duo of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Penn State lights up the scoreboard in this one.
Georgia Tech (3-1) vs. #19 Louisville (2-0)
Louisville -10.5; O/U 57.5
Georgia Tech +10.5 (-110)
Louisville is in a weird spot where we are not entirely sure how good they are. Their two games have come against FCS Austin Peay and a winless Jacksonville State. Now Georgia Tech comes to town the week before Louisville heads to South Bend to take on #17 Notre Dame. In true ACC road games since Brent Key arrived in the middle of 2022, Georgia Tech averages 26.4 PPG. The Yellow Jackets are 6-3 SU and ATS in those games, and are 6-2 SU and ATS as a road underdog. Brent Key is also 5-0 against ranked ACC opponents. Even if that trend suffers it’s first defeat, I like Georgia Tech to keep this one close.
Arkansas (2-1) vs. Auburn (2-1)
Auburn -3; O/U 58
Over 58 (-110)
Sam Pittman became the Arkansas head coach in 2020. In road SEC games, the Razorbacks have allowed 38.3 PPG across 16 games. The Arkansas offense averages 28.8 PPG in those contests. When Arkansas is a road underdog, the Over is 11-3-1. Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green is averaging 350 total yards in their first three games with seven total touchdowns. Running back Ja’Quinden Jackson has three straight games with 100+ yards on the ground and a score.
Auburn is turning to redshirt freshman Hank Brown for his second career start, after benching former Michigan State transfer Payton Thorne. Auburn saw their best offensive performance come in Fayetteville last year, where they defeated Arkansas 48-10 on 517 total yards of offense. I like these teams to clear the Over in Week 4.
#6 Tennessee (3-0) vs. #15 Oklahoma (3-0)
Oklahoma +7; O/U 57.5
Under 57.5 (-110)
I wrote about my concerns with Oklahoma in the 2024 College Football Futures article. They have the defense to compete in the SEC, but the offense has work to do. That has proved to be the case through three games. Jackson Arnold has been sacked nine times in games against Temple, Houston, and Tulane. Tennessee managed three sacks against NC State a few weeks ago. The ground game has not helped Jackson Arnold, either. On 71 attempts (23.7/gm), the running back room is averaging just 4.3 YPC and two scores. Oklahoma’s offensive possession result in 3-and-out on 41% of their possessions, 122nd nationally.
We saw Nico Iamaleava light up an Iowa defense in Tennessee’s bowl game last year, but this is his first true road test. Iamaleava threw two interceptions against North Carolina State a few weeks ago. He will have to keep those in check against the Sooners defense; Oklahoma turns opponents over at the 8th highest rate in the country. In Oklahoma’s two home games against ranked opponents under Venables, they allowed 27.5 PPG. The defense is the strength of this team, and I’m expecting the Sooners’ defense to keep them in this one. Tennessee wins, but I like the Under in Oklahoma’s SEC debut.
Outright Underdogs (.5 Units):
Week 3: 2-0 (+2.23 Units)
Year to Date: 3-3 (+1.3 Units)
Coastal Carolina vs. Virginia +140
Since Tony Elliott became UVA’s head coach in 2022, they are 4-5 SU against non-conference opponents, but just 1-5 against FBS teams. The only win came against Old Dominion in 2022, where they needed a game-winning field goal as time expired. Tim Beck is 6-2 in the non-con and 2-1 when the Chanticleers are home dogs. I believe they make it 3-1 and knock off the Cavaliers in Week 4.
Georgia Tech @ #19 Louisville +330
Georgia Tech is 5-0 SU against ranked ACC teams and 10-7 in conference play. With Notre Dame on the horizon for the Cardinals, Georgia Tech is live to pull the upset.
What are your favorite Week 4 college football bets? Let me know on X! Follow me @DrewRoberts_ for more college football and NFL content
RANKINGS | Weekly | DYNASTY |
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