2024 College Football Week 12 Best Bets
2024 College Football Week 12 Best Bets
As we head into the heart of November, the College Playoff picture is starting to take shape. Week after week, we are getting closer to finalizing the 12-team field. And while this week isn’t as spicy as others, that’s where the best upsets arise. Only two ranked matchups in the SEC for this week, but plenty of teams are playing to extend their season with a bowl berth. Here are my favorite Week 12 college football bets.
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Week 11: 2-2 (-.23 Units)
Year to Date: 26-25-1 (-1.37 Units)
Utah (4-5) vs. #17 Colorado (7-2)
Colorado -11.5; O/U 46.5
Colorado -11.5 (-110)
Utah suffered a devastating loss last week, allowing an 11-play, 65 yard drive to their in-state rival as BYU hit a game-winning field goal. That’s now five straight losses for the Utes, including 1-4 ATS. Now they turn back to Isaac Wilson, their third-string quarterback. Colorado is rolling and with their eyes on the College Football Playoff, I think this one can get ugly in Boulder. I’m on Colorado to move to 8-2 in convincing fashion.
#20 Clemson (7-2) vs. Pittsburgh (7-2)
Pittsburgh +10; O/U 53.5
Under 53.5 (-108)
The Under is 10-5 in Clemson’s conference games since 2023 and 5-2 in road conference games. The average point total in those road conference games is 41.9 PPG. Eli Holstein’s play has fallen off the last month. In his first five games, he threw for 15 touchdowns and three interceptions. In his last four, Holstein has recorded just two touchdowns and three interceptions. He’s completing just 56.1% of his attempts in that span for 5.35 YPA. Not a great time to welcome Clemson to town. I think this is a low scoring ACC game.
Boston College (5-4) vs. #14 SMU (8-1)
SMU -19.5; O/U 54
Over 54 (-108)
Since suffering their lone loss of the year, the Over has cashed in five of SMU’s last six with a game total averaging 67.5 PPG. In that span, SMU is averaging 38.4 PPG in their five ACC contests. Kevin Jennings has this offense humming down the stretch as the Mustangs hope to sneak their way into the College Football Playoff. For Boston College, they are turning to Grayson James at quarterback to replace Thomas Castellanos. James helped the Eagles comeback in the second half to beat Syracuse last week. I like the Over in this ACC matchup.
#1 Oregon (10-0) vs. Wisconsin (5-4)
Wisconsin +14; O/U 52
Oregon 1st Half -7.5 (-110)
In Oregon’s seven Big Ten games, the Ducks have outscored opponents 176-54 in the first half. Excluding their toughest game against Ohio State, that improves to 154-33. In the three road Big Ten games, the Ducks are +57 points in the first half. Wisconsin has come back down to Earth after a three game win streak, losing the last two to Penn State and Iowa. I’m expecting Oregon to continue their hot starts in Big Ten play.
Wake Forest (4-5) vs. North Carolina (5-4)
North Carolina -11; O/U 64
Wake Forest +11 (-110)
North Carolina, for whatever reason, can’t put away teams as a big favorite. Since the start of 2023, North Carolina has six games against FBS opponents where they were a double-digit favorite. They are 0-6 ATS, losing three outright, and winning two in double-overtime. The only other game came against Charlotte this year. Against ACC opponents in this scenario, they are 1-2 SU with losses to Virginia and at Georgia Tech, and a double-overtime win over Duke. I think Wake can keep this within the number.
Outright Underdogs (.5 Units):
Week 11: 1-3 (-.68 Unit)
Year to Date: 11-23 (-3.26 Units)
(Fri.) Houston @ Arizona +105
Houston went from two shutout losses in conference play to winning three of their last four. That lone loss came on the road at Kansas, who is one of the hottest teams in the Big 12. Arizona has lost five straight, with only two coming within one score. Make it six, as Houston pulls the upset.
Arkansas vs. #3 Texas +360
Let’s go big game hunting in one of the more quiet weeks of the college football season! It’s Week 11 and this is just the third time Texas is playing in a true road environment. The only other occurrence in SEC play came two weeks ago, where Texas won by a field goal against Vanderbilt. We’re due for a big upset, and this would be one of the biggest of the week.
Air Force vs. Oregon State +140
Oregon State is beat up and they turn to Ben Gulbranson for his third straight start; the Beavers have scored a combined 20 points in the last two with Gulbranson under center. Air Force showed life last week with an upset win against Fresno State, and I think they are live to repeat in Week 11.
Wake Forest @ North Carolina +320
I touched on it above taking the points with Wake. They are very much alive to take this outright in Chapel Hill.
What are your favorite Week 11 college football bets? Let me know on X! Follow me @DrewRoberts_ for more college football and NFL content
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