2024 College Football Week 11 Best Bets
2024 College Football Week 11 Best Bets
Week 10 was highlighted by plenty of upsets affecting the College Football Playoff. Four teams ranked inside the top-20 fell to unranked opponents. That’s not counting undefeated Penn State and Pittsburgh falling to ranked opponents. And we may be in store for another crazy weekend in Week 11. There are 50 games between FBS schools this week; 24 of those matchups feature a home underdog. Eight of those home underdogs face a ranked opponent. This is a prime weekend for major upsets. Here are my favorite Week 11 college football bets.
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Week 10: 5-0 (+5.00 Units)
Year to Date: 24-23-1 (-1.14 Units)
(Fri.) Iowa (6-3) vs. UCLA (3-5)
UCLA +5; O/U 45
Over 45 (-108)
Iowa game totals in Big Ten play this year are 5-1 to the Over and averaging 48.5 PPG. Iowa is averaging 30 PPG in conference play, including three games clearing 40. The only game the Over did not cash was against Ohio State, where we saw the Hawkeyes’ continue to struggle against ranked opponents. I expect the Over to clear the total in this classic Big Ten matchup between the Hawkeyes and Bruins.
#3 Georgia (7-1) vs. #16 Ole Miss (7-2)
Ole Miss +2.5; O/U 54.5
Georgia -2.5 (-115)
Under 54.5 (-112)
I was shocked at this line when it came out; I truly thought it would be closer to a touchdown. But my best guess is this line shifted after Georgia struggled against Florida and Ole Miss blew out Arkansas in Fayetteville.
We hit on Georgia last week when they played Florida; Georgia is now 0-11-1 ATS against unranked opponents since the start of 2023 and 1-13-1 ATS in their last 15 against unranked opponents. But they are 15-6 ATS against ranked opponents since the start of 2021, and 6-3 ATS since the start of last year. And two of the three failures to cover since 2023 came against Alabama. Of their 21 games against ranked opponents since 2021, Georgia has won 18 of those contests (all three losses to Alabama) and 15 by double digits. In those 21 games, Georgia’s defense allows just 16.2 PPG. In the 18 against teams not named Alabama, that plummets to 12.8 PPG. The Under is 12-6 in those non-Alabama games. Georgia gets up for games they have to, and this is one of those games. Georgia wins in a route with the Under hitting.
Washington (5-4) vs. #6 Penn State (7-1)
Penn State -13.5; O/U 46
Penn State -13.5 (-108)
Another one we hit on last week was James Franklin failing to win ‘the big one’ against Ohio State and Michigan. Since 2021, in games following losses to Michigan and Ohio State, Penn State averages 34.8 PPG and an average margin of victory of 22.3 PPG. They are 5-1 ATS in those games, and only one game was decided by less than two scores. This is Washington’s fourth trip traveling east; they are 0-3 SU and ATS in those Big Ten games. I like Penn State to bounce back on Saturday night in Happy Valley.
Outright Underdogs (.5 Units):
Week 9: 3-1 (+1.5 Unit)
Year to Date: 10-20 (-2.58 Units)
(Fri.) UCLA vs. Iowa +164
UCLA has covered in five of their last six, including four of the last five in conference play. They have momentum after winning the last two as an underdog on the road. Now they catch points at home? I like the Bruins on Friday night.
North Texas vs. #25 Army +150
Bryson Daily’s absence last week against Air Force was a last second announcement. Now Army travels to Denton to take on a North Texas team that averages 43.9 PPG against FBS opponents. I’ll take the Mean Green for the upset.
#14 LSU vs. #11 Alabama +120
Brian Kelly is 13-0 in night games at LSU and 17-1 at home. Alabama this year has lost their two road games in SEC play with Kalen DeBoer. Geaux Tigers.
Utah vs. #9 BYU +150
Four of Utah’s last five have been decided by one possession. They are 1-4 in that stretch. Quarterback play has been a concern for the Utes this season in the absence of Cam Rising. But Kyle Whittingham is 4-1 against Kalani Sitake. Those may be different times, but I’ll take Utah to win the Holy War.
What are your favorite Week 11 college football bets? Let me know on X! Follow me @DrewRoberts_ for more college football and NFL content
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