2024 College Football Week 1 Best Bets
2024 College Football Week 1 Best Bets
Week 0 served as a tasty appetizer for the 2024 college football season. After just four games a week ago, we are just days away from five-straight days of college football. There is no better time of the year than football season. Here are my favorite Week 1 college football bets.
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(Friday) Temple vs. #16 Oklahoma
Oklahoma -43; O/U 59
Oklahoma -43 (-110)
A theme I’ll hit on early this season is big programs beating up on smaller FBS teams. Since Brent Venables was named the head coach, Oklahoma is 5-1 ATS in non-conference, non bowl games. His counterpart, Stan Drayton, has been at Temple for two years. In that span, the Owls have four games against Power Four programs (Duke, Miami, Rutgers – twice); they average 7 PPG in those contests and are 1-3 ATS.
Temple was drained on both side of the ball via the transfer portal. They lost the conference leader in passing yards in E.J. Warner (Rice). They return just one starter on an offensive line that propelled the offense to 4.1 YPC (excluding sacks) and just nine rushing touchdowns. Lead tackler Jordan Magee graduated; he recorded 80 tackles (14 TFL; both led the team) and tied for a team lead 3.5 sacks.
I touched on my concerns surrounding Oklahoma’s offense in my 2024 College Football Futures. But this opener puts them against a Temple defense that returns just three starters, all on the defensive line. Jackson Arnold should have perform well in his debut as the full time starter. Given Temple’s depleted offensive line going against a formidable SEC defense in Oklahoma, this could be a long trip to Norman for the Owls. I like Oklahoma to roll in their 2024 opener.
Ohio vs. Syracuse
Syracuse -17.5; O/U 46
Syracuse -17.5 (-110)
Ohio Team Total Under 12.5 (+110)
Tim Albin took over the Ohio job after the 2020 season. In his three years as head coach, Ohio has played five games (Syracuse, Northwestern, Penn State, Iowa State (twice)) against Power Four schools. Ohio has not eclipsed 10 points in any of those games (9 PPG). They are 1-4 SU and ATS in that span, allowing 32 PPG (38.3 PPG if you exclude their lone win against Iowa State last year, 10-7).
Ohio returns two offensive lineman from their 10-3 campaign a year ago, along with two members of the secondary. That’s it; Ohio is replacing their top seven pass-catchers, top three tacklers, and their defensive coordinator who left during spring practice. Running back Rickey Hunt Jr. did play in the Myrtle Beach Bowl while maintaining his redshirt status; he scored five touchdowns in the game.
For the Orange, they return eight offensive starters and add Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord to replace Garrett Shrader. Five starters return on the defensive side to pair with new defensive coordinator Elijah Robinson. While there are a lot of moving pieces in Syracuse, there is talent within the program. And Albin has done a solid coaching job at Ohio in his first three years, but this team is a shell of itself from a year ago. I like the Orange to take care of the Bobcats as they ring in the start of the Fran Brown era.
#7 Notre Dame vs. #20 Texas A&M
Texas A&M -3; O/U 46.5
Texas A&M -3 (-108)
One of the three marquee games of Week 1 takes place in College Station as Notre Dame takes on Texas A&M. Both teams hit the transfer portal for big time additions, but the biggest additions to both teams comes from Durham, North Carolina. New Texas A&M coach Mike Elko comes from Duke, where he coached now Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard.
Elko knows the flaws in Leonard’s game and what rattles him. Even when Notre Dame had Sam Hartman last year, Elko coached a less talented Duke team to a close 21-14 loss against the Fighting Irish. Now he knows the opposing quarterback arguably better than his new head coach. Leonard’s return from a season-ending ankle injury comes at one of the tougher places to play in the country. Leonard’s numbers on the road are 55% completion rate, 6.4 YPA, 3.0% touchdown rate and 1.3% interception rate. For comparison, Leonard when playing at home completes 68.2% of his attempts, 8.1 YPA, 5.2% touchdown rate and 2.1% interception rate.
Both teams finished in the top-10 in terms of defensive yards allowed per game. Notre Dame finished 8th in defensive scoring (16.6 PPG). The Irish defense paired with Elko able to strategize against his former quarterback makes me believe this will be a low scoring game. I’m on the Aggies in Week 1.
Wyoming vs. Arizona State
Arizona State -6.5; O/U 47.5
Wyoming +6.5 (-110)
Wyoming returns 13 starters (6 off., 7 def.) from a team that went 8-4 in the 2023 regular season. Quarterback Evan Svoboda is a junior with limited experience, starting in just one game against Texas last year. However, he did lead the game winning drive against Toledo in the Arizona Bowl last year. The seven starters on defense return from a team that helped the Cowboys finish 2nd in the Mountain West in scoring (22.9 PPG) and 3rd in YPG (360.3 YPG).
Arizona State turns to Michigan State transfer Sam Leavitt after losing Jaden Rashada (Georgia) this spring. Leavitt has just 23 pass attempts in his redshirt freshman season in East Lansing. Arizona State’s lead returning receiver is their running back Cam Skattebo, who tallied over 1,000 total yards and 10 total touchdowns. No other returning receiver had over 20 receptions or 250 yards. Arizona State’s defense will rely heavily on the transfer portal; they return just three starters on a team that finished 8th in the Pac-12 in both YPG (396.8) and scoring (31.8).
Arizona State, on a Saturday night of a three-day weekend, will likely not bolster much of a home field advantage. Both quarterbacks have limited experience, along with their skilled position players. The Sun Devils will have plenty of transfer help on the defensive side of the ball, but can that translate early on? I like Wyoming to kick off the Jay Sawvel era with a close one in Tempe.
Outright Underdogs (.5 Units):
Wyoming +195 @ Arizona State
Since the shortened pandemic season, Arizona State is 1-5 SU in their last six out of conference games against FBS schools. This includes a shutout loss to Fresno State a year ago. I like the Cowboys to pull the upset in Week 1.
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