2024 College Football Conference Championship Best Bets
2024 College Football Conference Championship Best Bets
We are a matter of days away from the reveal of the first ever 12-team College Football Playoff. Shortly thereafter, we will start hearing announcements of bowl matchups. But before we hit Sunday, we have nine conference championship games to get through. And this could be the best slate in quite some time; every spread this year is within one-score. Here are my favorite Conference Championship bets.
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Week 14: 2-3 (-1.32 Units)
Year to Date: 35-31-1 (+1.03 Units)
(Friday) AAC Championship: Tulane (9-3) vs. #24 Army (10-1)
Army +4.5; O/U 45.5
Tulane -4.5 (-112)
Under 45.5 (-108)
West Point, New York (Army home game)
There are rumors Jon Sumrall could jump to a Power Four school, such as North Carolina. But there’s no reason to expect him to not coach in the AAC Championship, despite no chance of either team being the 5th conference champion to advance to the College Football Playoff.
Sumrall has played against a military academy three times in his coaching career, going back to his start at Troy in 2022. Sumrall’s teams have allowed just nine total points in the three games and outscored opponents in 64-9. The game against Navy this year – a 35-0 win – is the highest game total. They defend the triple option well and have done well against the better teams on their schedule; Tulane is 5-2 ATS against bowl eligible teams. After a 5-0 ATS start against FBS opponents, Army closed going 1-3-1 ATS and 1-2-1 ATS against bowl eligible teams. The first five games for the Black Knights were all against non-bowl eligible teams. I think Tulane gets it done at West Point and contains the Army offense.
ACC Championship: #17 Clemson (9-3) vs. #8 SMU (11-1)
SMU -2; O/U 55.5
Over 55.5 (-110)
Charlotte, North Carolina
This is the 10th appearance for Clemson in the ACC title game, all under Dabo Swinney. The Tigers average 41.6 PPG in the championship game, with the floor being 34. Clemson averaged 36.8 PPG this year against conference foes. SMU was a perfect 8-0 in ACC play this year, averaging 45.9 PPG. The Mustangs topped 30 in every game this year in conference play except one against Duke, where SMU scored 28 as the game went to overtime. SMU committed six turnovers in that one and failed to force a turnover. I think this could be a high scoring affair in Charlotte, with the winner getting a bye in the College Football Playoff.
Big Ten Championship: #3 Penn State (11-1) vs. Oregon (12-0)
Oregon -3.5; O/U 49.5
Over 49.5 (-110)
Oregon Team Total Over 27.5 (+100)
Indianapolis, Indiana
This is difficult spot to pick the spread, as trends go against both coaches in this spot. James Franklin is 1-16 against top-5 opponents SU, and 0-11 SU when his team is also ranked. Three of the 11 have ended within seven points. Dan Lanning is 1-3 ATS in neutral site games. So I’ll avoid the spread in this one.
But one play I like is the Over. Dan Lanning took over the Oregon job in 2022 and has played 14 ranked opponents. The Ducks have scored over 30 points in 12 of those games, including their last nine. This number has been hit in two of the three against top-5 opponents; the only failure came in Dan Lanning’s first game in 2022, a neutral site beatdown courtesy of the eventual national champion Georgia Bulldogs. Tez Johnson returned last week for the Ducks to make the offensive weapons for Dillon Gabriel whole. I think Oregon carries their weight in this one as the Over hits.
Outright Underdogs (.5 Units):
Week 14: 0-4 (-2.0 Units)
Year to Date: 13-34 (-7.36 Units)
#5 Georgia vs. #2 Texas +120
This is a rematch of a convincing 30-15 win for Georgia in October, a game that combined for seven total turnovers. Georgia has faced a much more difficult schedule than Texas; the only opponent that was ranked in the latest CFP that Texas played was Georgia, while the Bulldogs have played five. This is also practically a home game for the Dogs, as it’s down the road in Atlanta. Georgia has been an underdog just twice in the last three seasons; they won outright. Texas’ LT Kelvin Banks is listed as questionable, which doesn’t bode well against a still solid Georgia defensive line. I’m on the Dogs to win outright.
#17 Clemson vs. #8 SMU +114
Dabo Swinney is 8-1 in the ACC Championship, winning the last eight. While Clemson lost last week at home to in-state rival South Carolina, Clemson knew their fate was sealed: if they had help, they were going to the conference championship game. If not, they would play simply play in a bowl game. I think the Tigers have a coaching and talent advantage in this one, in what is essentially a home game. Clemson plays spoiler and gets a bye in the College Football Playoff.
What are your favorite Conference Championship bets? Let me know on X! Follow me @DrewRoberts_ for more college football and NFL content
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