2023 Running Back Value: RB1 Without the Premium
The most coveted position in fantasy football belongs to the running backs. With the exception of leagues where you have the option of starting multiple quarterbacks, they’ll be the first off the board and fill the most depth on your bench in hopes of hitting some running back value.
So, what if you decide to look elsewhere with your first or even second pick? Maybe you want to take Justin Jefferson or Cooper Kupp in the middle of round one. Or, you decide to use an early pick on one of the elite tight ends? The opportunity cost of an elite receiver or tight end is missing out on a narrow position pool. And we’ve all heard of the dreaded running back dead zone in rounds three thru four. Going this route will require hitting on some running back value in the later rounds who have RB1 upside.
More: Rookies You Need To Draft In 2023 Fantasy Football
Trends of A RB1
Over the last seven years we have a sample size of 84 running backs. Over that span, two indicators we’ll look at are total touchdowns and receptions.
63 of the 84 RB1s have scored double-digit touchdowns (75%). Of last year’s top-12 running backs, only Aaron Jones (RB9) and Rhamondre Stevenson (RB10) failed to hit double-digit touchdowns; Jones had seven, while Stevenson had six. 45 of the 84 had at least 50 receptions (53.6%), but 75 running backs had either 10 total touchdowns or 50 receptions (88.9%). While the percentage with over 50 receptions seems low, of the 39 who failed to hit 50 receptions, there are only nine top-5 finishes:
Aaron Jones in 2019: 2nd; 19 TDs and 49 receptions
James Robinson in 2020: 4th; 10 TDs and 49 receptions
Aaron Jones 2020: 5th; 11 TDs and 47 receptions
Dalvin Cook in 2020: 2nd; 17 TDs and 44 receptions
Joe Mixon in 2021: 3rd; 16 TDs and 42 receptions
Jonathan Taylor in 2021: 1st; 20 TDs and 40 receptions
Derrick Henry in 2022: 4th; 13 TDs and 33 receptions
Ezekiel Elliot in 2016: 2nd; 16 TDs and 32 receptions
Derrick Henry in 2020: 3rd; 21 TDs and 19 receptions
Eight of the last nine instances have come since 2019, while six of the backs hauled in at least 40 receptions.
Here is a breakdown of touches, receptions, and total touchdowns based on a running back’s finish.
Another metric to look at is the age of the running backs:
66 of the 84 were 26 or younger in the season (78.6%). This percentage fell after four 27-year olds finished in the top-12 in 2022 – Austin Ekeler, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, and Jamaal Williams. For context, only five 27-year old’s finished as a RB1 from 2017 thru 2021. Only three players over 30 finished as a RB1 in this seven year window: LeGarrette Blount (2016), Mark Ingram II (2019) and Cordarrelle Patterson (2021). Those three each finished as RB8 as 30-year old’s.
So, the player pool we’re looking at falls with those running backs involved in the pass game while on their first contract.
Pre-Draft RB1s
As we approach the end of July, ADP will adjust over the next six weeks. Here is the current ADP, courtesy of FantasyPros, of the top-12 RBs in half-PPR scoring as of July 25th:
RB1: Christian McCaffrey (2nd overall, 27 years old)
RB2: Austin Ekeler (4th overall, 28 years old)
RB3: Saquon Barkley (8th overall, 26 years old)
RB4: Bijan Robinson (9th overall, 21 years old)
RB5: Nick Chubb (10th overall, 27 years old)
RB6: Derrick Henry (15th overall, 29 years old)
RB7: Tony Pollard (16th overall, 26 years old)
RB8: Jonathan Taylor (18th overall, 24 years old)
RB9: Josh Jacobs (22nd overall, 25 years old)
RB10: Najee Harris (25th overall, 25 years old)
RB11: Rhamondre Stevenson (27th overall, 25 years old)
RB12: Travis Etienne Jr. (30th overall, 24 years old)
Excluding these 12 backs, let’s see where we can find 2023 running back value in later rounds.
Joe Mixon (RB14, 34th overall, 27 years old)
In most years, hearing you can get a bellcow running back towards the end of the third round would have fantasy football managers doing cartwheels. Now you can, as Mixon finds himself near the end of round three according to FantasyPros’ ADP.
In his four previous seasons with Zac Taylor as his head coach, Mixon has averaged at least 19 touches per game, including three receptions per contest. He features zero competition for touches as the roster currently stands. His backups – Trayveon Wlliams, Chris Evans, and rookie Chase Brown – have never accounted for over 40 touches in a season. Chase Brown is the highest investment Cincinnati has made at the running back position since Mixon arrived, spending a 5th round pick on him in this year’s draft.
Mixon is on the higher end of the age spectrum mentioned above. However, he also offers double digit touchdown and 50-plus reception upside. Mixon is a current bargain at 34th overall and offers significant 2023 running back value.
Cam Akers (RB21, 55th overall, 24 years old)
Fantasy managers will likely have nightmares of drafting Cam Akers last year. Defending Super Bowl champion Rams laid an egg in the opener against the Bills, all while Akers played 12 snaps, rushing three times for zero yards.
However, what fantasy managers might not recall is how hot Akers was down the stretch. When the calendar turned to December, Akers averaged 17.3 attempts per game in the last six games. His 104 touches accounted for 64.2% of the Rams’ rushing volume down the stretch. Now, his competition is 5th round sophomore Kyren Williams and 6th round rookie Zach Evans.
For Akers to vault into the top-12, he’ll likely have to produce by scoring rushing touchdowns. Akers has just 27 receptions in 29 career games, and his seven rushing scores last year was the most by an individual since Todd Gurley’s 12 in 2019. If the Rams want to return to even an average offense, they will need someone other than Stafford and Kupp to produce. Akers will have to be a force on the ground, and I believe he could get the workload to make that happen.
James Conner (RB23, 58th overall, 28 years old)
I give you age data only to tell you that, yes, a 28 year old James Conner could finish as a RB1 in 2023.
James Conner was heavily used in 2022. Fast forward an offseason, and their offense will look significantly different. No more DeAndre Hopkins. Kyler Murray’s status is unclear at this time. And they did not add any significant skill players in the draft or free agency.
Conner has missed time each year as a professional. Despite this, he has still eclipsed 1,000 yards in his two years in Arizona and has accounted for at least eight touchdowns each season. Conner’s usage and knack for finding the end zone could make him a 2023 running back value.
More: Players To Avoid At ADP In 2023 Fantasy Football Drafts
Javonte Williams (RB24, 62nd overall, 23 years old)
Remember when Javonte Williams was being drafted 22nd overall entering his second season? Now, after tearing his ACL in early October, he’s going early in round six.
As a rookie, Williams averaged 11.9 attempts per game and accounted for 43 receptions. This improved after Denver’s Week 11 bye in 2021; Williams averaged 14.3 carries per game and accounted for 19 of his 43 receptions in his last seven games. The Broncos’ offense was a disaster a year ago under Nathaniel Hackett, but the addition of Sean Payton could help Williams significantly. In his last four seasons with the Saints, Payton’s offense ranked in the top-5 in rush attempts three times. This resulted in two appearances in the top-10 in rushing yards and two seasons leading the league in rushing touchdowns. In those two seasons, lead back accounted for 14 and 16 rushing scores, while the team scored 26 and 30 touchdowns, respectively, on the ground.
Samaje Perine could be a thorn in the side of Williams. However, this should not fear fantasy football managers away from Williams. When Kamara finished as the RB4 in 2018, Mark Ingram accounted for 159 touches and seven touchdowns. Kamara was RB1 in 2020; Latavius Murray accounted for 169 touches and five scores. At 27 years old, Perine had his second most productive season a year ago in Cincinnati: 133 total touches, 681 total yards, and six touchdowns. This is the only other season outside of Perine’s rookie year where he cleared 100 total touches. My point: Williams can be a RB1 even if Perine is involved. I believe Williams offers one of the best draft day 2023 running back value.
Dark Horse: Zach Charbonnet (RB38, 103rd overall, 22 years old)
We hit on Rhamondre Stevenson a year ago as a dark horse RB1. His ADP at the time was 104th overall, almost spot on to Charbonnet’s this year. And while Charbonnet’s path to a RB1 finish is more complicated than Stevenson’s from a year ago, I believe he is the best dark horse 2023 running back value.
Related: Deciphering The Seahawks Backfield: Still The Kenneth Walker Show?
Seattle used a 2nd round pick in back to back seasons to invest in a running back. Kenneth Walker flourished when Rashaad Penny went on season ending IR in Week 5. Walker was the RB8 from Weeks 6 thru 17 after Penny went down. Walker missed three weeks of practice due to a groin injury suffered in late July. And since then, Charbonnet has impressed in the preseason.
We also know Charbonnet for being a productive pass catcher in college.
Walker recorded 20 receptions in the fantasy football season when Penny was sidelined (11 games). Charbonnet could take over passing duties in Seattle’s offense.
One concern for both Walker and Charbonnet relates to offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. Since Waldron joined the staff in 2020, the Seahawks have been below league average in rush attempts. The two years before, Seattle ranked second and third, respectively, in rush attempts.
There are still some hurdles for Charbonnet to reach RB1 status. But given his passing upside and recent history of round two running back production as rookies, Charbonnet could provide 2023 running value in the mid rounds of your fantasy draft.
Agree? Disagree? Let’s discuss on Twitter! Follow me @DrewRoberts_and let me know who your favorite is or someone I missed.
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