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2023 Free Agent Running Backs
The 2023 free agent class of running backs is as loaded as we’ve seen in a long time. Who will be back? Who will sign elsewhere? And perhaps most importantly (for us), how will this impact our dynasty teams?
Saquon Barkley
Age: 26
Market Value (Spotrac): 11.9M
Potential Successor(s): N/A
Synopsis
After a couple injury-riddled seasons, Saquon Barkley returned to form in 2022, setting himself up for a big pay day. With the Giants in the midst of a rebuild, there’s a chance the former No.2 overall pick is not re-signed. The team may opt to spend those resources on shoring up other areas of the team instead. With that said, Barkley is a candidate for the franchise tag which would allow them to bring him back on a one-year deal without having to commit long-term to a guy who has already dealt with numerous injuries at one of the most physical positions in the sport.
In the chance that he departs, there is no viable successor on the current roster. The team would need to turn to free agency and/or the draft to find a replacement. Both routes present a lot of quality options in 2023.
Josh Jacobs
Age: 25
Market Value (Spotrac): 12.1M
Potential Successor(s): Zamir White
Synopsis
Josh Jacobs had by-far his best season in 2022. However, there’s no guarantee that he’s back in Las Vegas next season. Remember, the Raiders opted not to pick up his fifth-year option, making 2022 the final year of his rookie deal. The Raiders were a disaster in Josh McDaniels’ first year at the helm so they have plenty of other areas where they need to spend money improving in the offseason rather than giving their running back a huge deal. It’s certainly possible Vegas diverts from its original plan and opts to extend Jacobs or, more likely, use the franchise tag to squeeze one more year out of him.
But, it’s still on the table that they could stick with the original plan and let another team write that big check. If that happens, 2022 fourth-rounder Zamir White is a viable replacement. Remember, White was an impressive prospect coming out of Georgia. The former five-star recruit tested with excellent size-adjusted speed and burst at the NFL Combine. He led the Bulldogs in rushing in each of his final two seasons despite sharing a backfield with Bills rookie James Cook. He may not get the full bellcow role that has propelled Jacobs to league-winner status, instead ceding passing-downs work to a specialist, but White is well worth hanging onto in dynasty and is probably dirt cheap in trade.
Tony Pollard
Age: 26
Market Value (Spotrac): 8.2M
Potential Successor(s): Malik Davis
Synopsis
We finally got Tony Pollard season. Pollard exploded in the second half of 2022 and was the clear better back when compared to Ezekiel Elliott. Pollard’s breakout came just in time for a new contract. With Spotrac.com giving Pollard a market value estimate of $8.2M and Elliott on the books for a $16.7M cap hit in 2023, it’s likely we see some changes in the Dallas backfield beginning in 2023. The only way Pollard is back is if the team moves on from Zeke—they could save $4.8M against the cap by releasing him—or they do a major restructuring of Elliott’s contract. Otherwise, Pollard will reach the open market and be free to sign with any team.
Pollard’s skill set would be a great fit in Miami where they run a lot of outside zone that running backs with speed like Pollard’s really thrive.
If Pollard departs, 2022 undrafted rookie Malik Davis could get first crack at the RB2 job in Dallas. He doesn’t match Pollard’s speed and athleticism but does have 94th-percentile burst (PlayerProfiler.com) and has looked good in minimal opportunities this season.
Miles Sanders
Age: 26
Market Value (Spotrac): 7.2M
Potential Successor(s): Kenneth Gainwell
Synopsis
Like the others before him, 2022 has been Miles Sanders’ best season. He’s been healthy, reached 1,000 rushing yards for the first time, and has taken advantage of an elite Eagles offense. However, out of the backs we’ve discussed so far, Sanders feels the most likely to land with a new team in 2023. If that’s the case, it’s hard to find many situations that would secure him in the workhorse role that he enjoyed in 2022.
If he does not return to Philly, that will open the door for Kenny Gainwell to take on a bigger role. Gainwell didn’t wind up with the role we hoped for him in his second season but he has the skill set to lead a backfield committee. At 5-8, 201lbs, he’s big enough to be more than just a satellite back. Remember, he ran for over 1,400 yards in 2019 at Memphis while commanding over 60 targets. He’s been efficient in his limited chances in the NFL, averaging over four yards per carry in each season and ranking No.7 in fantasy points per touch in 2022. Still, he would probably be paired with a bigger back from free agency (maybe a Damien Harris type) or a day 3 draft pick.
David Montgomery
Age: 26
Market Value (Spotrac): 9.7M
Potential Successor(s): Khalil Herbert
Synopsis
The 2022 season was David Montgomery’s worst since his 2019 rookie campaign. He failed to reach 1,000 yards for the third time in four years while catching the fewest passes since that inaugural season. He will turn 26 years old before the first kickoff of 2023, when he will likely be playing for a new team. It’s hard to imagine the Bears will pay the estimated market value (Spotrac) of nearly $10M/year to a league-average plodder, especially when they have a Khalil Herbert waiting in the wings.
If Herbert inherits the starting gig, we can count on him as an RB2 in fantasy football for the next couple seasons. Herbert has been efficient in his limited opportunities since entering the league as a sixth-round pick in 2021. On over 100 carries this season, Herbert averaged six yards per carry and ranked top-5 in true yards per carry, yards per touch, and evaded tackles per touch (PlayerProfiler.com). He also ranked No.7 in yards created per touch and broke off a run of 15 or more yards on 5.6% of his carries which ranked inside the top-20.
Kareem Hunt
Age: 27
Market Value (Spotrac): 6.9M
Potential Successor(s): Jerome Ford
Synopsis
We have heard the rumors of Kareem Hunt getting traded for years. It never happened. Now he’s heading towards free agency where he will almost certainly sign with a new team. But at 27-years old, his days as a team’s RB1 may be over. The 2022 season was by far his worst as a pro. His production and efficiency metrics were down across the board and he basically fell off the radar for fantasy football. Hunt will likely continue to be a committee back, albeit with someone other than Cleveland. His skill set in the passing game will keep him relevant during fantasy draft season.
A potential successor as the RB2 to Nick Chubb is 2022 fifth round pick Jerome Ford. However, he is far from a one-for-one replacement for Hunt. Ford has excellent size-adjusted speed but he disappointed at the combine in both the explosion and agility drills. He is also not the natural receiver that Hunt is, with just one season of double-digit receptions at Cincinnati. Ford has just three carries in the NFL—for three yards.
Rashaad Penny
Age: 27
Market Value (Spotrac): N/A
Potential Successor(s): N/A
Synopsis
Rashaad Penny’s career has been riddled with injuries. But, over the last two seasons when he’s been healthy, Penny has been one of the more productive backs in the league. He was a league-winner in fantasy in 2021 with how dominant he was over the last month. He started off slow in 2022 before ripping off 157 total yards and two touchdowns in Week 4. The very next week, though, he fractured his tibia and was done for the season. Unfortunately, that injury likely cost him millions of dollars in this upcoming free agency cycle. He almost certainly won’t be back in Seattle as the Seahawks have moved on to rookie second-rounder Kenneth Walker. And with his injury history, plus the other options available in free agency and the draft, he is not going to find an opportunity to slide in as a team’s top running back.
Penny will likely have to sign a one-year prove-it deal with the hopes that he will get enough opportunities to earn himself a more substantial deal in 2024.
Jamaal Williams
Age: 28
Market Value (Spotrac): 4.1M
Potential Successor(s): N/A
Synopsis
Jamaal Williams was the thorn in the side of all D’Andre Swift fantasy managers this season. He also played the role of the league’s top touchdown scorer. Williams will be 28-years old when free agency commences. The Lions view him as one of their veteran leaders and they clearly love him as a red zone weapon so there’s a real good chance he stays in Detroit. That would be bad news for Swift managers, but the best chance for Williams to maximize his own production.
Raheem Mostert
Age: 31
Market Value (Spotrac): N/A
Potential Successor(s): Jeff Wilson
Synopsis
After a career littered with injuries, Raheem Mostert stayed mostly healthy for the duration of the 2022 season. He shared the backfield with fellow 49er alum Jeff Wilson as they both approached the 1,000 yard mark. Mostert proved he still has the speed and explosion to operate in the Shanahan-style rushing attack at a high level. That could prompt the team to bring him back on another one-year deal at age 31. Remaining in Miami would be the best outcome for anyone rostering Mostert in dynasty leagues.
D’Onta Foreman
Age: 27
Market Value (Spotrac): 3M
Potential Successor(s): Chuba Hubbard
Synopsis
D’Onta Foreman arose from the dead in 2021 in relief of an injured Derrick Henry. That got him a free agent deal with the Panthers who pushed him up the depth chart when they sent Christian McCaffrey to San Francisco. Foreman again took full advantage of his opportunity, ripping off several 100-yard performances while sharing a backfield with Chuba Hubbard. With many other holes to prioritize on the roster in 2023, the team would be smart to continue to ride the Foreman-Hubbard tandem for another year.
However, if Foreman signs elsewhere, the team could turn to Hubbard to lead the backfield. It would be more likely, though, that they would replace him with a veteran or through the draft, creating another committee with Hubbard and the new addition.
Samaje Perine
Age: 27
Market Value (Spotrac): 1.2M
Potential Successor(s): Chris Evans
Synopsis
Samaje Perine proved to be one of the more valuable backup running backs in football, totaling 332 yards and four touchdowns over a three game stretch in the absence of Joe Mixon. His versatility as a pass-catcher will make him a hot commodity on the open market for teams looking to add some depth at the position.
If he departs Cincinnati, it may or may not be Chris Evans getting first crack at the RB2 job. Evans had his chance to seize the backup role in training camp in an open competition between he and Perine. He failed to impress and has been barely heard from since. Evans is an explosive runner with the size and receiving skills to take a full workload so he would be a valuable handcuff if he becomes the No.2.
Devin Singletary
Age: 25
Market Value (Spotrac): 5.8M
Potential Successor(s): James Cook
Synopsis
Devin Singletary has had another season of just solid production. He’s not special in any aspect but he does enough to be able to take advantage of the explosive Bills offense. He’s small, he’s slow, and not particularly skilled in the passing game. This will likely be his last time leading a backfield.
The Bills drafted James Cook in the second round and have ramped up his role over the course of the season. Cook is an explosive, big-play threat who has the receiving chops to be a three-down threat. Cook’s dynasty value will continue to rise over the next 10 months.
Damien Harris
Age: 26
Market Value (Spotrac): 7M
Potential Successor(s): Kevin Harris
Synopsis
The warning signs were there all summer long, telling us not to draft Damien Harris in redraft and to get out in dynasty. Between losing his job to Rhamondre Stevenson and numerous stints on the injury report, Harris’ dynasty value has plummeted. The same could be said about his value on the open market. It would be a shock to see him back in New England. He’s unlikely to find a starting gig anywhere else, either. Instead, we can anticipate a committee role or even a true backup job on a one-year deal in 2023. His best case scenario would be to pair with a Kenny Gainwell in Philadelphia or a James Cook in Buffalo. We could also see him reunite with Josh McDaniels if Josh Jacobs leaves Vegas and have a chance to compete with Zamir White.
The next man up in New England would be Kevin Harris. We’ve seen Pierre Strong involved a bit this year as well, but Kevin Harris is more the plodder type like Damien Harris. We liked Kevin Harris coming out of South Carolina last year where he had an extremely productive sophomore season before a back injury set him back. But that sophomore season showed us he can be a workhorse running back that dominates in between the tackles and in short-yardage situations. He’s big and powerful and has enough juice to break off a few chunk plays here and there.
Jerick McKinnon
Age: 31
Market Value (Spotrac): N/A
Potential Successor(s): N/A
Synopsis
Jerick McKinnon has really come on in his age-30 season. He’s a great fit in the Chiefs offense paired with the bigger, bruising Isiah Pacheco. It would be wise of the Chiefs to run it back with McKinnon for one more year in 2023.
Jeff Wilson
Age: 27
Market Value (Spotrac): 2.9M
Potential Successor(s): N/A
Synopsis
Jeff Wilson played well in both San Francisco and Miami this season. Like Mostert, his best case scenario would be re-signing in Miami where he can play in a scheme that suits him well and in a good offense that will help maximize his fantasy production. Otherwise, he’s staring at a backup job on a one-year deal.
Alexander Mattison
Age: 24
Market Value (Spotrac): 1.2M
Potential Successor(s): Ty Chandler
Synopsis
Somehow Alexander Mattison is still only 24-years old. It feels like he’s been one of fantasy football’s top handcuff running backs for about a decade. He didn’t get many opportunities this year and was quite inefficient in those. With trade rumors earlier in the season and in preseason, and the drafting of Ty Chandler in 2022, it’s likely we see Mattison sign elsewhere.
As for Chandler, he missed most of the season with a fractured thumb. During his time at North Carolina, Chandler showed he has natural hands with the athleticism and versatility to develop into a weapon. He will likely never carry the load in a way that would make him the elite handcuff that Mattison once was, but he’ll have an opportunity to become a change-of-pace ball carrier and big-play receiver alongside Dalvin Cook.
James Robinson (RFA)
Age: 24
Market Value (Spotrac): 3.8M
Potential Successor(s): N/A
Synopsis
Unlike the others, James Robinson is a restricted free agent, meaning he will be free to negotiate and sign with any team, but the Jets can make an offer (called a tenders) that comes with the right of first refusal and/or draft-pick compensation. Given the fact that he has been pretty bad when he’s played and has been a healthy-scratch on numerous occasions, it would not be a surprise to see the Jets pass on making an offer.
Could he re-emerge elsewhere as a fantasy relevant running back? It’s possible. But his days as a must-start RB1/RB2 are likely over.
