10 Players To Target After Round 10
2023 Fantasy Football: Late Round Targets
While you’re spending most of your fantasy football draft prep time figuring out who you’re going to be taking in the early rounds, I’ve done the work to help make the late rounds a piece of cake.
Here are 10 players you should target in the late rounds (after round 10) of 2023 fantasy football drafts.
More: Zero RB: The Winning Draft Strategy For 2023 Fantasy Football
Jayden Reed, WR, Packers
ADP: Round 15
Second round rookie Jayden Reed was listed as the WR3 on the initial Packers depth chart, but it’s only a matter of time before he’s playing ahead of Romeo Doubs. Reed is a versatile weapon who can line up anywhere on the field and even take some rush attempts or add value as a returner. He was a big-time punt returner in college, taking three back to the house. That also translates to after the catch, where he’s excellent at gaining additional yardage.
The Packers have a wide open receiver depth chart behind last year’s rookie breakout Christian Watson. That gives Reed a clear path to significant opportunity as a rookie, especially with a new quarterback who doesn’t have built-in chemistry with any of the existing receivers on the roster. Reed will play from the slot in 11-personnel with a chance to overtake Doubs in two-wide receiver sets. It’s not crazy to think he could lead the Packers in targets as a rookie, either. Reed is more of a volume guy while Christian Watson specializes in splash plays. Quarterback Jordan Love will appreciate Reed’s ability to get open quick and make plays after the catch. He will also present Love with an easy outlet to get the ball to when in trouble, on plays where he can’t sit and wait for Watson’s downfield routes to develop.
My comp for Reed coming out of Michigan state was Emmanuel Sanders. His body type, versatility, quickness, ability to create separation anywhere on the field, all align with what Sanders was during the prime of his career. Sanders had some big seasons in his younger years, I expect Reed will as well. He’s easily attainable in drafts with an ADP in round 15.
Jaylen Warren, RB, Steelers
ADP: Round 12
Jaylen Warren is one of fantasy football’s top handcuff running backs. As an undrafted rookie in 2022, Warren proved to be a more than capable backup to Najee Harris. Some even believed he should have been starting ahead of the former first-rounder. That never happened, but Harris did see his opportunity share drop from 86% as a rookie down to 70%, while Warren’s role grew throughout the season.
Warren even gave his fantasy managers some stand-alone value with six top-36 performances. While doing so, he out-performed Harris in a bunch of efficiency metrics. For example, Warren’s 3.82 yards created per touch was No. 5 while Harris’ 2.13 was outside the top-40. Warren also displayed good receiving skills by catching 28 passes and a 7.6 yards per reception average. With the added receiving upside plus a significant opportunity share, Warren would be a weekly RB2 if anything were to happen to Harris.
Marvin Mims, WR, Broncos
ADP: Round 13
Marvin Mims was one of the most exciting wide receiver prospects in the 2023 class. Apparently Sean Payton agreed as he traded up to make Mims his first pick as Broncos head coach. Mims adds an explosive element that the Denver offense was missing last season. He’s a playmaker with 4.38 speed and a career yards per reception average of nearly 20 yards while in college. He led his team in receiving in all three of his seasons, finishing 2022 with 1,083 yards and six touchdowns. He also made an impact as a kick returner.
While he didn’t run a wide array of routes at Oklahoma, Mims proved to be a smooth operator and has the looks of a guy who can develop his route tree further at the next level. He creates consistent separation and can win on all three levels. After the catch, Mims has the speed and quickness to be a true threat to gain additional yardage. In fact, his 8.5 YAC per reception in 2022 was second-most among Power Five wide receivers from the 2023 class.
With projected No. 3 wide receiver Tim Patrick out for the season and KJ Hamler released, Mims is locked into a starting role in three-wide receiver sets. Mims profiles as more of a splash play guy as opposed to a high-volume target, much like he was at Oklahoma. He’s a perfect compliment to the big outside x-receiver Courtland Sutton, and the smooth possession Jerry Jeudy.
Roschon Johnson, RB, Bears
ADP: Round 13
The Bears drafted Roshcon Johnson in the fourth round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Johnson spent most of his college career in the shadow of Bijan Robinson, but he flashed an exceptional skill set when given opportunity. At Texas, Johnson showed excellent vision, patience, and instincts as a runner. He averaged 6.0 yards per carry over his last two seasons for a combined 1,123 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns.
He’s a big back at 6-0, 219 lbs who runs with a dangerous mix of power and finesse. Johnson has the athleticism to be a lead back in the NFL. Where he really gets the edge in the Bears backfield, though, is with his receiving skills. Johnson proved to be a natural receiver when given the opportunity. He caught 25 passes over his last two seasons while behind Bijan, and he had 23 receptions as a true freshman. In a backfield where he’s competing with two running backs who are clearly not pass catchers, this gives Johnson a real edge for early playing time. He is also a strong pass-blocking running back and he’s shown that during training camp practices already, That will surely help his case for a three-down role.
If Johnson can capture significant time on passing downs, that will really open up his ceiling from a fantasy football standpoint. And who’s to say Johnson doesn’t overtake Herbert all together? Herbert has only shown us flashes in small samples and he has a sixth round pick drafted by the previous regime. It’s not crazy to think Johnson finishes out the season atop the depth chart.
Related: Deciphering The Bears Backfield
Ty Chandler, RB, Vikings
ADP: Round 17
Ty Chandler is the only true all-purpose running back on the Vikings roster. It’s true—Alexander Mattison and DeWayne McBride are between-the-tackles grinders who don’t offer much in the passing game, and Kene Nwangwu is a small satellite back who’s real value comes on special teams. Ty Chandler, on the other hand, is 205 lbs with a 73-catch college resume. He also has 4.38 speed and ran for over 1,000 yards in his final season at North Carolina.
Chandler got the start in the Vikings preseason opener. He had a three-down role and looked good. He was evading tacklers, catching passes, and even showed up in pass protection. According to Warren Sharp on Twitter, Chandler faced a loaded box on 91% of his Week 1 carries which resulted in being contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage 55% of the time. Yet, he still managed 3.0 yards after contact per rush attempt. It’s an extremely small sample, but it goes to show Chandler is impressing.
It looks like Chandler is going to be the No. 2 behind Mattison to begin the season, while also operating as the team’s third-down and two-minute back. That could be enough to provide some stand-alone value in fantasy football. It also opens the door for a greater role if anything happens to Mattison or if Mattison can’t cut it as the workhorse back. Chandler’s only competition in the absence of Mattison would be seventh round rookie grinder back DeWayne McBride and special teamer Kene Nwangwu. Considering the pass volume, willingness of Kirk Cousins to check-down, and scoring upside, a chance at the lead running back job in the Vikings offense would propel Chandler to RB2-level production for fantasy football.
Michael Wilson, WR, Cardinals
ADP: Round 18
Michael Wilson is the ultimate deep sleeper wide receiver in 2023. Not many fantasy drafters even have him on their radar. Yet, he’s likely to play a significant role in the Cardinals offense. He’s competing with journeyman Zach Pascal for the starting outside wide receiver job opposite Marquise Brown while Rondale Moore mans the slot. All reports indicate Wilson has had a great camp and is likely to beat out Pascal. In preseason Week 1, Wilson played eight of nine snaps with the starters and caught two passes, including a third down conversion.
In a wide receiver room full of smaller dudes, Wilson stands out at 6-2, 213 lbs. He uses his size, physical strength, and body control to create separation. He has the athleticism to add value after the catch as well.
In a Cardinals offense that is going to have to pass the ball while trailing in the second-half of games, Wilson could wind up with some decent volume as a rookie. Remember, DeAndre Hopkins is gone and tight end Zach Ertz is still recovering from last season’s ACL injury so the team is desperate for a pass-catcher with some size. A Kyler Murray return sooner rather than later would help Wilson that much more.
Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Eagles
ADP: Round 13
Kenneth Gainwell showed us enough last season to think he can play a big part of the Eagles backfield in 2023 despite the other additions they made at the position. Gainwell’s usage was cranked up in the playoffs when he had back-to-back games with double-digit carries which included 121 total yards against the Giants. He then out-snapped Miles Sanders 50% to 36% in the super bowl. Gainwell ended the postseason with 33 attempts and 181 rushing yards (5.5 YPC). Let’s not forget, Gainwell was a workhorse at Memphis while playing alongside Tony Pollard and Antonio Gibson. In 2019, Gainwell ran for over 1,400 yards while commanding over 60 targets.
Gainwell has been good when given opportunity. Unfortunately, the volume to this point in his career hasn’t been enough to be relevant in fantasy football. He’s averaged over four yards per carry in each season and ranked No.7 in fantasy points per touch in 2022. He has managed to finish No.7 and No.5 in fantasy points per opportunity thus far in his career.
If Rashaad Penny and D’Andre Swift battle more injuries—neither has been the epitome of health in their careers—Gainwell could really be something in fantasy football. It’s also not crazy to think the coaches prefer Gainwell over Penny and Swift altogether. Afterall, he’s been running with the first team in practice throughout training camp and the team rested him in Week 1 of the preseason. They also don’t have as much invested in the other running backs as the general fantasy public seems to think. The Eagles didn’t give up much for Swift in the trade from Detroit and they signed Penny to a one-year deal worth just $1.3 million. The running back market is down, but that is low-end backup money.
Related: Deciphering The Eagles Backfield
Zamir White, RB, Raiders
ADP: Round 15
Zamir White was an impressive prospect coming out of Georgia. He led the Bulldogs in rushing in each of his final two seasons despite sharing a backfield with James Cook. The former five-star recruit tested with excellent size-adjusted speed and burst at the NFL Combine. The Raiders drafted him in the fourth round but used him sparingly as a rookie. Instead, he sat behind Josh Jacobs during his breakout campaign in which he touched the ball nearly 400 times. It’s hard to imagine Jacobs being able to hold up for another season with that level of workload.
If Jacobs is forced to miss any time, it would be Zamir White taking the majority of the early down work. He wouldn’t be the bellcow that Jacobs has been, but White would project to about 15 carries per game while Ameer Abdullah and Brandon Bolden handled the passing game. His usage reflected that in preseason Week 1 when he played 20-of-23 snaps with the starters. With that group, he ran the ball nine times for 35 yards and a touchdown. White’s carries were half of the Raiders’ offensive plays in the first quarter (PFF).
White is a good athlete at 6-0, 214 lbs. He has a downhill running style with good vision and explosion. If forced into a starting role, he would be a viable RB2/RB3 in fantasy football.
Tyler Conklin, TE, Jets
ADP: Round 16
Tyler Conklin has finished 8th and 12th among tight ends in targets over the last two seasons. Those resulted in seasons of 58 catches for 552 yards and three touchdowns on 87 targets in 2022 and 61 catches for 593 yards and three touchdowns on 87 targets in 2021. Last season, he was No. 7 among tight ends in air yards, No. 8 in targets, and No. 3 in routes run. He was also top-12 in yards after the catch.
Now he gets Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. The two have already made the training camp highlight reel as the two seem to have already built some chemistry. Conklin gives off some Robert Tonyan vibes. Tonyan scored as a top-6 tight end in 2020 when he scored 11 touchdowns. There’s a real chance that Conklin can also crack double-digit touchdowns as Rodgers’ favorite red zone target in what should be a much improved Jets offense.
Betting: 2023 AFC Futures
Damien Harris, RB, Bills
ADP: Round 11
Damien Harris left New England this offseason and signed a one-year, $1.8 million contract with the Bills. He is expected to compete with Latavius Murray for early-down work and red zone touches while playing compliment to James Cook.
Harris joins a Bills offense that is set up perfectly for him to succeed. Buffalo was a top-5 scoring unit in both 2021 and 2022 with little reason to believe they won’t be highly ranked again in 2023. As a touchdown scoring specialist, that plays right into Harris’ hands. Before you start screaming about quarterback Josh Allen’s tendency to vulture touchdowns at the goal line, hear me out. Yes, this is a concern and it will cap Harris’ touchdown ceiling to a degree.
However, the Bills have said numerous times this offseason that they want to start pulling back on Allen’s designed runs and protect his body a bit better for the long run. Allen has taken a number of hard hits over the years and it’s starting to take its toll. That means, there could be more opportunities for a 216 lb running back with 20 rushing touchdowns in three years like Harris to see more goal line and short yardage opportunities.
Even outside of the red zone, Harris could lead the Bills in carries. For starters, he is seven years younger than Murray (33) so that should be little contest there. And James Cook has never been known to be an efficient runner between the tackles even going back to his Georgia days. In fact, Cook maxed out at 113 carries in college and was limited to just 91 as a rookie. He benefited from light boxes in 2022 and won’t get that same luxury in 2023 if his role expands beyond the third down and change-of-pace one he saw a year ago.
That brings us right back to Harris who is nearly 20 lbs heavier and ready to take on the additional running back carries that are expected to come from the Bills offense this season. That’s because, not only do the Bills want Allen to run less, it’s rumored they want him to attempt fewer passes as well. The theory is, putting a little bit less on his plate could help he and the offense sustain their high performance all the way through the end of the season rather than falling off like they have in years past. Some evidence of this is the team moving away from the undersized Devin Singletary and bringing in two big backs who can handle a more traditional running back workload.
Rumors and theories aside, things are lined up nicely for Damien Harris to have a bounce-back season in Buffalo. With an ADP in the double-digit rounds, it won’t cost you much to find out.
Who are your favorite late-round sleepers for 2023 fantasy football? Jump in our Discord and join the discussion!
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