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2023 College Football Futures

August 5, 2023

2023 College Football Futures

We are just over three weeks away from the start of the 2023 college football season. A week 0 slate consists of just seven games, highlighted by Notre Dame vs. Navy in Ireland and reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams and USC kicking off their season. Until then, we can soak up these last few weeks by researching the season ahead. These are my favorite 2023 college football futures for the upcoming season. Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on August 2nd.

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Michigan over 10.5 Wins (-120)

It’s been announced Jim Harbaugh has been suspended for the first games of the 2023 season. Michigan fans should be worried; Harbaugh will miss four home games against East Carolina, UNLV, Bowling Green, and Rutgers. If – and this is a major if – Michigan can survive that daunting opener, it likely will boil down to two games: at Penn State and home against Ohio State.

Michigan’s offensive starters will be very senior heavy; their offense projects to have nine starting seniors. J.J. McCarthy will be the deciding factor of how far Michigan will go; the passing attack was the weakness of the Wolverines, ranking 82nd in passing yards and just 22 passing touchdowns for McCarthy. They return the top rushing duo in the country in Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards, who totaled just under 2,500 rushing yards and 25 touchdowns between the two.

The Wolverines’ defense has been top-5 in each of the last two seasons thanks to defensive coordinator Jesse Minter. Four Michigan players were either drafted or signed in this NFL Draft, but the Wolverines have the players to reload. If this defense reloads and McCarthy takes the next step in his second year as a starter, Michigan should find themselves playing in the College Football Playoff for a third straight season.

Arkansas State Under 4.5 Wins (+100)

Former Central Michigan, Cincinnati, and Tennessee head coach Butch Jones enters year three with the Red Wolves. He’s just 5-19 in his short tenure at Arkansas State. The Red Wolves return just two starters on the offensive line in Mehki Butler and Makilan Thomas. J.T. Shrout transfers from Colorado, but has just 272 attempts under his belt. He’s completed just 46.7% of his attempts with 12 touchdowns to 11 interceptions.

Arkansas State welcomes back four of their five leading tacklers, but this defense allowed over 31 points and 400 yards per game last year. Their non-conference schedule opens at Oklahoma, Memphis and Stony Brook at home, and at UMass. I would expect 2-2 from that stretch with wins over Stony Brook and UMass. That leaves an eight-game Sun Belt schedule, where the Red Wolves have won just one game in each of the last two seasons. Butch Jones has done well recruiting, finishing in the top-3 in conference for each of the last two years. But until they produce on the field, I’ll fade the Red Wolves in a tough Sun Belt Conference.

Kentucky Over 7 Wins (-110)

Kentucky’s Achilles heel last season was their offense; they ranked outside the top-100 in scoring, passing and total offense. Now, they return four starting offensive lineman and three quality receivers. But their biggest additions are Devin Leary, replacing second-round pick Will Levis, and offensive coordinator Liam Coen. Leary was the second highest quarterback transfer according to On3. Coen returns to Kentucky after spending a year with the Los Angeles Rams.

Mark Stoops’ defense has finished in the top-25 in four of the last five seasons. They return five starters and welcome cornerback J.Q. Hardaway, a transfer from Cincinnati, to the secondary. Hardaway was ranked as a top-20 cornerback transfer by On3.

Kentucky’s schedule is also favorable; the Wildcats start the 2023 with three home games against non-conference foes: Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, and Akron. Vanderbilt is their first road contest in Week 4, followed by a home game against Florida. There is a high probability Kentucky starts the year 5-0 before a trip down to Athens. That means you need two wins to push and three to win with the following schedule: Missouri, Tennessee and Alabama at home, and Mississippi State, South Carolina, and Louisville on the road. 8-4, 9-3 is definitely on the table for the Wildcats, making them one of my favorite 2023 college football futures.

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Texas Under 9.5 Wins (+120)

Texas has all the pieces, thus garnering a ton of hype entering 2023. Steve Sarkisian returns aspiring first round pick in Quinn Ewers and talented receiver Xavier Worthy. 16 of potential 24 starters are returning from last year’s team. However, there are reasons for concern for the Longhorns.

Steve Sarkisian has never had a 10-win season, which includes postseason games. And the last time Texas had a 10-win season? 2009, when they made the National Championship game with Colt McCoy. Texas loses 87% of their rushing production with Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson and 79% of their rushing touchdowns. Jonathan Brooks was good as a freshman and they have the top ranked freshman running back in CJ Baxter Jr., but this will not be the equivalent of Robinson and Johnson from a year ago. Texas will have to buck trends going against them if they want to see their first 10-win season since 2009. This is one of my favorite 2023 college football futures.