Betting

2023 AFC Futures

August 18, 2023

2023 AFC Futures

We are in the heart of the NFL preseason. Hard Knocks is underway as we get a look inside the new New York Jets with Aaron Rodgers and a new regime of receivers. As we enter the second round of preseason games, there is no better time to look ahead for some 2023 AFC Futures. Win totals, division champions, and who represents the AFC in the Super Bowl are some of the many options at your favorite sportsbooks. So before September 7th rolls around, make sure you lock in some of my favorite 2023 AFC futures.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of

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AFC West Champions: Kansas City Chiefs (-165)

Kansas City Chiefs: Over 11.5 Wins (-140)

Since Patrick Mahomes became the starter in 2018, the AFC West runs through Kansas City. They have won the last seven division titles, with five coming since Mahomes was named the starter. Each year has resulted in at least 12 wins, despite losing key offensive weapons in Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill at different points.

We now have a decade of Andy Reid with the Chiefs.

The over has hit in nine of those ten years. Don’t let preseason hype with Kellen Moore joining the Chargers or Sean Payton taking over the Broncos cloud your judgment. This division runs through Kansas City, and will for the foreseeable future.

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Las Vegas Raiders: Under 6.5 Wins (-130)

Over the last seven seasons, 32 teams have finished with four wins or less. At least four teams have won four or fewer games since 2005. In the last two years when the league expanded to a 17-game regular season, nine teams failed to win four games (five in 2021; four in 2022). I’m using the four game mark because, as of this writing, the lowest win total you can find is the Cardinals at 4.5 projected wins. The next lowest is a seven-way tie with 6.5 wins, including the Raiders.

The Raiders lose long time starter Derek Carr after an offseason trade to the Saints. His replacement? Jimmy Garoppolo, who’s arrival to Las Vegas was delayed due to concerns with his physical. And while Garoppolo has a great record as a starter (38-17), there is a significant drop off from Kyle Shanahan to Josh McDaniels. In his 45 games as a head coach, 24 of those matchups came in one-possession games (8-16). You could make the argument this is the worst head coach in the league, and paired with a new quarterback, could make for a long season in Las Vegas.

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AFC North Champions: Baltimore Ravens (+235)

Since the Texans became a franchise in 2002 and divisions realigned, the AFC North has not seen a three-peat champion. There have been three peat champions by each team except the Browns, but never a three-peat champion. And I believe that continues into 2023.

Joe Burrow is dealing with a calf sprain and will miss the rest of the preseason. The hope for Cincinnati is he won’t miss any time in the regular season. Their offense is also awaiting any Joe Mixon ramifications.

Pittsburgh did not make many splashes in the offseason, but now rely on a quarterback who accounted for ten total touchdowns in 12 starts. There will be a positive regression for the second year quarterback in Matt Canada’s offense, but is it enough to take the crown in a tough AFC North?

Cleveland? They have not won the AFC North since the expansion in 2002. In fact, they have only finished second in the division twice: 2002 and 2007. The remaining years have been third or last. Once Deshaun Watson returned in Week 13, their offense scored just eight total touchdowns the last six weeks. This is another case of positive regression, but the Browns have declined each year with Kevin Stefanski.

And that leaves Baltimore. This offense should have a new look, as they moved on from Greg Roman and welcomed Todd Monken from winning back-to-back national championships down in Georgia. Their offense welcomes back J.K. Dobbins and Rashod Bateman from injury, while adding veteran Odell Beckham Jr. and rookie Zay Flowers. This should go along nicely with a defense that has finished top-3 in scoring in four of the last five seasons. The question lies with Lamar Jackson; he’s 45-16 as a starter, but has missed ten total games in the last two seasons. If he can remain healthy and click with Monken in their first year together, the Ravens could have the best shot at dethroning the Chiefs atop the AFC.