2021’s Chase Claypool will be…
In 2020, Chase Claypool was drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers and went in to a team with two established pass-catchers ahead of him as well as an established tight end and competition for that third receiver spot. Despite all that, he emerged at the end of the season as WR22 in PPR formats.
Looking back at 2020 Average Draft Position (ADP) on Fantasy Football Calculator, Claypool isn’t even listed in the top 66 wide receivers. He wasn’t being drafted, yet he finished as WR22.
His draft profile from WalterFootball listed some of Claypool’s strengths as:
- Mismatch size
- Red zone weapon
- Run after catch skills
- Tracks the ball well
- Upside
and the same site lists those very same strengths for a 2021 rookie wide receiver. A rookie wide receiver who is being drafted very late (or not at all), on a team with two established pass-catchers ahead of him, and who might just be this year’s Chase Claypool.
Enter Terrace Marshall Jr
With the 59th pick of the 2021 NFL Draft, the Carolina Panthers selected Terrace Marshall Jr, Wide Receiver from LSU.
He goes in to a Carolina team run by Matt Rhule and offensive coordinator Joe Brady. The same Carolina team that produced two 1,000 yard receivers and a third receiver with 851 yards in 15 games in 2020. That third receiver has now left the building and Marshall will have every opportunity to step in to fill his shoes.
Let’s have a look at the numbers.
2020 Pittsburgh Steelers
- Total plays 1,043 (11th in the league)
- Pass attempts 656 (63-percent rate)
2020 Carolina Panthers
- Total plays 993 (26th in the league)
- Pass attempts 550 (55-percent rate)
Ok, so Carolina didn’t throw as much last year as the Steelers did, that would hurt volume. But remember that this was year one for this coaching staff and a new coaching staff typically run a slower paced offense as they get used to the speed of the NFL. 993 plays is on the low side so statistically, we can expect this to regress towards league average (1,030).
Steelers Target Distribution (through weeks 1-16)
- WR1 23-percent (140 targets)
- WR2 20-percent (120 targets)
- WR3 16-percent (98 targets)
- TEs/RBs 29-percent (177 targets)
Panthers Target Distribution (through weeks 1-16)
- WR1 26-percent (129 targets)
- WR2 22-percent (107 targets)
- WR3 18-percent (86 targets)
- TEs/RBs 29-percent (142 targets)
The percentages are not too far off but with less team pass attempts the raw numbers are down for the Panthers. This also does not take account of the targets that McCaffrey would have likely got if he was on the field for the whole season.
See Where Terrace Marshall Lands In Our 2021 Draft Rankings!
Mike Davis and Christian McCaffrey combined for 89 targets in 2020 (weeks 1-16). Previous seasons saw McCaffrey with target volumes of 142, 124 and 113, so it would not be outrageous to assume an additional 30 targets for him if he was available for the whole season.
Projection
Note: I’m using a 16 game season so that we can compare to 2020.
Lets start to put together what this could look like for Terrace Marshall in 2021.
League average total play volume was 1,030 and the half way point between Pittsburgh’s and Carolina’s 2020 volumes is 1,018, so lets use that to be more conservative. We’ll also assume a slight uptick in pass rate from 57 to 59-percent, this gives us 600 pass attempts.
Don’t forget we’re giving McCaffrey a target bump of 30, so lets assume that the wide receiver’s target shares reduce accordingly but by the same proportions. This brings the WR3 target share to 16.5-percent (pretty close to that 16-percent that Claypool got in 2020). On 600 team pass attempts, that’s 99 targets. During the 2020 regular season, Claypool had 109 targets. We’re in the same range.
Total Points Comparison
Now lets take Claypool’s final PPR fantasy points from 2020 and adjust for some of these factors. Marshall’s projection has him at 91-percent of Claypool’s targets, so lets give him 91-percent of Claypool’s 2020 yards – that’s 794 yards.
The Steelers scored 35 passing touchdowns in 2020, to Carolina’s 16. That’s likely to regress closer to league average but lets say conservatively say we’re at half of the touchdowns, that’s 4.5 touchdowns for Marshall.
Total = 205 PPR points. That would have been WR27 in 2020.
Likely Usage
So is Marshall going to be used in the same way as Claypool was in 2020? I can’t tell you that. I can tell you that he’s unlikely to get the rushing work that Claypool did, but I removed that from the numbers already and he still comes out at WR27.
What about the Sam Darnold factor? Well one of the things about Sam Darnold has been his low depth of throw but guess what, it’s not been as low as Ben Roethlisberger’s was in 2020.
The coaches? Ok, it’s starting to get a bit tenuous now but Joe Brady and Mike Tomlin can both be traced back to Jon Gruden if you try hard enough. Does that mean they’re running the same offensive schemes? No, it doesn’t. I told you it was tenuous.
Summary
Ok, I’ve cherry-picked the things that suit the narrative, I get it. And there’s also a scenario where Marshall struggles in training camp and can’t get past David Moore on the depth chart, or just simply isn’t used in the same way as Claypool was last year. It’s not as simple as taking a rookie who has some similar traits from the previous year and adjusting his stats to suit the story.
However, remember how I said that Claypool didn’t show up on the top 66 wide receivers in 2020 ADP? Well Terrace Marshall isn’t showing up there for 2021 either. On FantasyPros current consensus ADP, he’s outside the top 70 wide receivers.
He costs nothing. And I’ve just shown you a potential outcome that puts him as a high-end WR3 without me trying too hard. Wouldn’t you rather take a shot on putting that guy on your bench rather WR68 Sammy Watkins or WR62 Emmanuel Sanders?
