Another year, another look at how your rookie picks in the upcoming class are worth relative to next year. 2020 was LOADED and produced at least two star QBs (Burrow, Herbert), six star RBs (Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, J.K. Dobbins, Cam Akers, Antonio Gibson and James Robinson), 4 star WRs (Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Brandon Aiyuk, and Tee Higgins), and a future top 12 TE (Cole Kmet). 2021 rookies are about to find homes, and your rookie drafts are probably shortly after the NFL Draft (April 29 – May 1).
The exercise of inter-class rankings is an important one that I think more dynasty owners should try their hand at inter-class rankings. Why? I do this exercise every year to see what is the true value of my rookie picks. As your rookie drafts approach, the value of that year’s rookie picks increase, and reach their max value when you are on the clock. For the first time, I’m publishing this article pre-draft so I can just trust the talent and not fall victim to draft capital bias.
Should you take the best available player every year? Or should you trade that current year’s pick to next year? I dug out my old notebooks and found my rankings for 2020 and 2021, and for the first time, I am publishing my 2022 rankings. Take a look at my inter-class rankings from 2020, 2021, and 2022 classes.
2020 RANKINGS
QB
1. Joe Burrow
2. Tua Tagovailoa
3. Justin Herbert
4. Jordan Love
5. Jalen Hurts
Looking back, I think most analysts had Herbert lower than Tua, but Herbert, as of this writing, is the QB1 in this class. I wrote about my worries for Burrow and the offensive line in Cincinnati and unfortunately that cut his rookie season short. Tua still has a chance to be a quality NFL starter, but I’m not sure he’s a sure fire star in fantasy football. Love will have to wait for his shot, and Hurts will get his chance in 2021 as the full time starter.
RB
1. Jonathan Taylor
2. Clyde Edwards-Helaire
3. D’Andre Swift
4. J.K. Dobbins
5. Cam Akers
I let the draft capital skew my selection, as I noted in the 2020 version of this article. CEH was my RB5 but his landing spot was too juicy for me to leave him there. I should have. Taylor is a bonafide superstar, and showed some receiving chops in 2020. Swift will face competition from Jamaal Williams, but I still stand by the comp for Swift being Alvin Kamara. Dobbins had incredible efficiency numbers in 2020 and appears poised for a huge 2021. Akers came on late and looks like the feature back in Los Angeles. Whiffed on Antonio Gibson and James Robinson with these rankings. CEH would slide to seventh, everyone moves up, Gibson to fifth and Robinson to sixth if I could do this again.
WR
1. Jerry Jeudy
2. CeeDee Lamb
3. Jalen Reagor
4. Denzel Mims
5. Justin Jefferson
Jeudy quietly had a great 2020 for a rookie and now gets Courtland Sutton back to take some coverage away from the sophomore. I expect a big year from Jeudy. Lamb was the top WR in this class with a healthy Dak Prescott, he should return to form with Prescott back in 2021. Reagor was a bust, but maybe that was because of QB play? Can he get right with Jalen Hurts? Mims was a darling of mine, and maybe presumptive #2 overall pick Zach Wilson can unlock him? Should pair well next to Corey Davis. Justin Jefferson exceeded my expectations. I thought he would be capped by the offense in Minnesota, turns out he’s just damn good. Whiffs include Aiyuk and Higgins. Aiyuk’s late rise scared me, especially when he landed with George Kittle and Deebo Samuel in San Francisco. Trust the talent.
TE
1. Cole Kmet
2. Adam Trautman
3. Albert Okwuegbunam
4. Dalton Keene
5. Devin Asiasi
Kmet showed some promise to end 2020, he looks to be the only viable fantasy starter in this group. Trautman has a chance to be the Saints TE1 in 2021, with a year in the league coming from FCS Dayton, maybe he can jump into the top 15. The rest of these guys are bench fodder for fantasy purposes. Harrison Bryant was a notable omission.
2021 RANKINGS
QB
1. Trevor Lawrence
2. Justin Fields
3. Trey Lance
4. Zach Wilson
5. Mac Jones
My 2020 list omitted Wilson and Jones, and included Brock Purdue and Tanner Morgan (woof). This is for fantasy football purposes and not where I think they’ll go in the NFL Draft. Lawrence is generational. Fields and Lance have the mobility to be dangerous in fantasy football. Wilson is the likely #2 overall pick to the New York Jets, but I have questions about his one year of production against a weak schedule at BYU. Jones may be the third overall pick, but his ceiling is Kirk Cousins, which isn’t bad, but isn’t top 5 pick worthy.
RB
1. Najee Harris
2. Travis Etienne
3. Javonte Williams
4. Kenneth Gainwell
5. Michael Carter
The 2020 list had Chuba Hubbard at 2 and Max Borghi at 5. Williams and Carter make the list with an impressive 2020 season and promising production profiles overall. Harris jumps Etienne for me due to his size and fluidity running routes and catching the ball. Harris, Etienne and Williams could have similar impacts as the top of the 2020 class did. Gainwell is smaller, but is one of my favorite players to watch on tape.
WR
1. Ja’Marr Chase
2. Devonta Smith
3. Jaylen Waddle
4. Rondale Moore
5. Rashod Bateman
Terrace Marshall misses this list but is my WR6. Loaded class that will rival 2020 in rookie year production. My 2020 list included all five of these guys, just in a slightly different order. Chase profiles as a top 5 pick who can do it all. Smith, the 2020 Heisman winner, gets open all the time and is constantly making plays. Waddle scares me as a bit of Henry Ruggs type, but is more complete. Moore was my WR1 but injury concerns have dropped him in my rankings. Bateman didn’t measure as big as we thought he would, but is another playmaker who’s always open.
TE
1. Kyle Pitts
2. Brevin Jordan
3. Pat Freiermuth
4. Hunter Long
5. Kenny Yeboah
My 2020 list included Matt Bushman from BYU and Jeremy Ruckert instead of Long and Yeboah. Pitts is really in a class of his own. Jordan is a plus athlete who will excel with the ball in his hands in the NFL. Freiermuth is a red zone monster. Long is more of a traditional TE and Yeboah is a downfield threat who can stretch the seam. A much better class than 2020.
2022 RANKINGS
QB
1. Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma
2. Sam Howell, North Carolina
3. Kedon Slovis, USC
4. Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati
5. J.T. Daniels, Georgia
Loaded at the top, Rattler, Howell and Slovis are all going to compete to be the first overall pick in 2022. Rattler and Ridder possess good rushing ability, while the other three are more traditional passers. Jayden Daniels is a name to keep an eye on.
RB
1. Breece Hall, Iowa State
2. Isaiah Spiller, Texas A&M
3. Trey Sanders, Alabama
4. Eric Gray, Oklahoma
5. Tyler Goodson, Iowa
George Holani from Boise State just missed the cut here. Hall and Spiller will headline this class, both can be workhorses in the NFL. Sanders is from Bama, how can we not have him in the top five? Gray has shown elite ability in the SEC and heads to Oklahoma, while Goodson needs more publicity. Goodson is a really good back, and could skyrocket up boards.
WR
1. George Pickens, Georgia
2. David Bell, Purdue
3. Treylon Burks, Arkansas
4. Garrett Wilson, Ohio State
5. Drake London, USC
Pickens has maturity issues and recently suffered a knee injury, but is supremely talented. Bell has a legit case as WR1, stud producer for Purdue. Burks is a size/speed freak (listed at 6-3 225lbs, reportedly runs in the 4.4’s) that the NFL will drool over. Wilson has been a mega producer for OSU and can continue to climbs boards with strong 2021. London is another big bodied WR who profiles as an alpha in the NFL.
TE
1. Jalen Wydermyer, Texas A&M
2. Charlie Kolar, Iowa State
3. Jake Ferguson, Wisconsin
4. Baylor Cupp, Texas A&M
5. Jeremy Ruckert, Ohio State
This is a tough class to read, but Wydermyer makes the most sense at TE1. Kolar has been great for Iowa State and profiles as a traditional TE, same with Ferguson. Cupp was a former top recruit who’s had injuries and Wydermyer to deal with. Ruckert is solid, yet unspectacular. The 2022 class reminds me of 2020… I’d wait on a TE until 2023 (Arik Gilbert – formerly of LSU, and Michael Mayer of Notre Dame headline).
And now the inter-class rankings
2020, 2021, AND 2022 INTER-CLASS RANKINGS
QB
1. Trevor Lawrence (21)
2. Justin Herbert (20)
3. Joe Burrow (20)
4. Justin Fields (21)
5. Spencer Rattler (22)
6. Trey Lance (21)
7. Tua Tagovailoa (20)
8. Sam Howell (22)
9. Kedon Slovis (22)
10. Zach Wilson (21)
11. Jalen Hurts (20)
12. Mac Jones (21)
13. Jordan Love (20)
14. Desmond Ridder (22)
15. J.T. Daniels (22)
RB
1. Jonathan Taylor (20)
2. D’Andre Swift (20)
3. J.K. Dobbins (20)
4. Najee Harris (21)
5. Cam Akers (20)
6. Travis Etienne (21)
7. Javonte Williams (21)
8. Breece Hall (22)
9. Antonio Gibson (20)
10. Isaiah Spiller (22)
11. Kenneth Gainwell (21)
12. Trey Sanders (22)
13. Eric Gray (22)
14. Michael Carter (21)
15. Tyler Goodson (22)
WR
1. Ja’Marr Chase (21)
2. Justin Jefferson (20)
3. CeeDee Lamb (20)
4. Devonta Smith (21)
5. Jerry Jeudy (20)
6. George Pickens (22)
7. David Bell (22)
8. Jaylen Waddle (21)
9. Treylon Burks (22)
10. Brandon Aiyuk (20)
11. Rondale Moore (21)
12. Rashod Bateman (21)
13. Tee Higgins (20)
14. Garrett Wilson (22)
15. Drake London (22)
TE
1. Kyle Pitts (21)
2. Cole Kmet (20)
3. Brevin Jordan (21)
4. Pat Freiermuth (21)
5. Jalen Wydermyer (22)
6. Hunter Long (21)
7. Charlie Kolar (22)
8. Adam Trautman (20)
9. Harrison Bryant (20)
10. Jake Ferguson (22)
11. Baylor Cupp (22)
12. Kenny Yeboah (21)
13. Jeremy Ruckert (22)
14. Albert Okwuegbunam (20)
15. Dalton Keene (20)
These rankings were truncated to only include the top-five across each class. It does not include my sixth-ranked WR from any class, despite the potential for the sixth-best WR in 2020 to be better than the fifth-best in either 2021 or 2022. These composite rankings do not take into account the growth of a player. I try to use these composite rankings to see the potential of these picks. Essentially, if you were excited about Tee Higgins, you should be ecstatic about David Bell.
Hope you enjoyed this technique of mine!
