2021 Auction Draft Values
How to dominate your auction draft
I love auction drafting. If there is one thing I want to be known for in the fantasy football space, it’s auction drafting. I began doing auction drafts 15 years ago and I am now an official auction draft snob. Don’t get me wrong, I’ll still do snake drafts, but they don’t have the same juice as auction drafts. Earlier, I wrote a piece for yards per fantasy university on auction drafting. In that piece, I explained auction drafting, offered tips, strategies, and put forth a game plan you can use to dominate your auction. Check it out here; Auction Draft
Average Auction Value (AAV) is the same concept as Average Draft Position (ADP). Various websites began listing auction values for players over a decade ago and AAV can be used as a guide as you prepare for your drafts. I am here to say that AAV is wildly sporadic. Auction drafting is fun because it is so unknown. There are so many variables when it comes to drafting. Sure the top 30 players will have similar AAV’s but really, the greatness of auction drafts is that beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Auction drafts can derail quickly as fantasy managers aim to get their guy. If there is a Packer fan in the group they may be irrational when it comes to Aaron Rodgers last year in Green Bay. This can drive up his value.
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So if a guide says Aaron Rodgers is $20 based on a budget of $200, your Packer pal may be willing to go to $30 come draft day. This is a reason I love auction drafting. There is a game within a game. I never got into the poker scene 15 years ago but I did get into auction drafting and they are very similar. You are not only drafting with your team, you are playing against your competition. You can use your money, your knowledge of your teammates to literally dominate your opponents. This is leverage.
Finding Value in Auction Drafts
When auction drafting there are deals to be had. I will suggest that you have a list of five players that you can’t leave your draft without. After that, play the value, not the player. What’s fascinating in auction drafts is there is often a highly American ideal of top-heavy players(the 1%), lots of $1 players at the end, and very little middle class. The middle tier is how you win your auction drafts. More than likely, you will spend a good portion of your funds on top players. You may not like spending an extra dollar more than you projected for Dalvin Cook, but you are willing to go a little higher to get your guy. That is fine.
What I suggest is you get your guys, then you wait. Wait as other teams build out their rosters. Be attentive because another joy of auction drafting is that any player can be called at any time. But focus on the middle tier of players. These are players with an ADP of 90-120 overall. I will give a list of three players that are continuously being drafted at the value in the multiple auction drafts I have done the past six months.
Punching the Clock
I’ve done the work so you don’t have to. I play with players that know their stuff and they are setting a market that can now be analyzed. This isn’t projected value, this is what is happening and will more than likely happen in your draft. The following are three wide receivers that will help you win your draft.
Wait to call out their names. Often fantasy managers believe they can catch the group sleeping at the wheel. They will call out guys that should go for under $5 too early and a player like Leonard Fournette may end up costing $7 when he would have gone for $3 much later in the draft. I don’t recommend calling out sleeper players you like too early. It has rarely worked well for me and it usually ends up costing me more than I wanted or more than I should have spent. So, be patient, wait and then call out the following players while you still have $15-$20 in the bank.
Marvin Jones (AAV, $3)
Marv Jones is a screaming deal. I get that everyone is fascinated with DJ Chark and Laviska Shenault. They are two talented young players that will make splash plays on NFL Gameday. Marvin Jones is the Honda Civic that gets you where you want to go. The truth is that no one knows how Urban Meyers offense will shake out in the NFL. He likes to run speed option, get the ball out quick, spread the field. I can see a lot of four-receiver sets with Collin Johnson on the field. Don’t forget about Travis Etienne soaking up targets either.
Out of the chaos, older receivers like Marvin Jones can thrive. Marvin Jones has been a steady contributor in the NFL. He was WR18 last year in Detroit on115 targets. Targets are earned While other players are paying $15-$18 in auction for unknown target shares of Chark and Shenault, I’ll gladly wait and take the guy that will be Trevor Lawrence’s safety blanket for $3.
Michael Gallup (AAV, $5)
Another outstanding value in auction drafts is Michael Gallup. I love the Dallas offense this year. We predicted they could have three 1,000 yard receivers last year and I still believe that could happen in 2021. Gallup had an outstanding 2019. He was WR22 with 113 targets, 66 grabs, 1,107 yards, and 6 tuds. Even in a down year in 2020, Gallup was still WR38 on 105 targets. Most of his year was with Andy Dalton under center. With a once-again healthy Dak Prescott, Gallup is ready to roll.
Seen as the deep threat in the Dallas offense, reports out of Cowboy camp is that Gallup is moving all over the offense. Entering a contract year, Gallup will be hungry to produce and show teams he can be an alpha for their squad next year.
There are many mouths to feed in Dallas but Mike McCarthy’s offense lives in three wide sets and Dallas is going to throw. A lot! The presence of emerging 2nd-year star CeeDee Lamb, and Amari Cooper will help Gallup become a third option playing against the opponent’s third cornerback. He will feast and he is cheap. Volume plus value equal fantasy goodness and Michael Gallup can be had for $5 in most auction drafts. If CeeDee and Cooper’s costs (around $20-$25 respectively) are too high for your taste, wait until the end of your draft and get a cheap option that can be a dangerous third receiver for your fantasy team.
Tyler Boyd (AAV, $5)
Similar to Marvin Jones and Michael Gallup, Tyler Boyd is the perceived third option on a team that should be top five in throwing the ball. The Bengals head coach Zac Taylor, loves to throw the ball. The Bengals threw 63% in neutral game scripts last year. Their defense is still bad and their talent is in their receiver core. All the hype is going to Ja’Mar Chase but his cost is becoming much too expensive for my taste. There have only been three rookies that were WR1’s in the last seven years and with a three-headed monster of Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd, I don’t believe Chase is going to be the superstar people are drafting him to be in 2021.
It isn’t the best use of resources to spend $22(AAV) for a rookie receiver be. Tee Higgins is my preferred receiver in Chili City but his cost is hovering around $18-$20. I prefer to wait on the Cinci pass catchers and scoop up Tyler Boyd, who may lead that unit is targeted. I know that may be a “hot-take” but Burrow loves Boyd. Burrow also loves throwing to the slot. Boyd is a unique slot receiver. He isn’t quick and twitchy but rather he uses his big body to post up smaller slot cornerbacks. Tyler Boyd is an excellent player, that much like Michael Gallup is in a contract year and will be playing for another team next year.
I am buying Boyd everywhere in auction drafts and getting him at WR4 or WR5 costs. He could be a low-end WR2. That is how you win. Don’t chase the name, chase the value. Boyd will have over 100 targets and should be right around 70 catches, 1,000 yards, and 6-7 touchdowns. Boyd can be had for $5 or less in auction drafts these days and although I love the young stud receives in Cinci, I’m taking Boyd at value all day.
Value Meal
These players may not be sexy, but they are the type of players that will help you make the playoffs and win your leagues. League winners tend to be players that bring tremendous value on draft day and produce above AAV. Marv Jones, Gallup, and Boyd are three players that can bring you glory. Wait, be patient and scoop them cheap giving more room to allocate your budget on building a strong RB, TE, and QB group. The Bid Daddy (That’s me!) wishes you luck. Mind your money, and scoop these valuable assets late in your draft.
