What We Can Learn From The 2020 Rookie RBs
2020 was a weird year. The 2020 NFL season was even weirder. But its behind us now as most, if not all, leagues have wrapped up. Before we turn our attention to the 2021 season we need to look back at the 2020 rookie RBs and see what they taught us.
Jonathan Taylor – Disappointment over Regret
If you could plot a curve of Jonathan Taylor’s fantasy stock over the season, it would be more up and down than Jalen Guyton’s usage. Some weeks, he was the next Herschel Walker. The next, he’s the next Trent Richardson. I never turned my back on him, but I also was never high enough on him.
An elite athlete running behind one of the best offensive lines in the league and catching balls from one of the most RB-friendly quarterbacks in the league should not have had an ADP of RB19, even if he was a rookie. Leaving Wisconsin, an O-Line factory, to the Colts, arguably the Wisconsin of the NFL, all Taylor had to do was use his sub-4.4 speed to exploit any and every hole available.
Fantasy Football Twitter is a ruthless place where people’s vision, IQ and sanity are questioned when they miss a rather large hole created by Quenton Nelson. If someone’s physical ability and production profile are paired with a team built to help them succeed, then you’re better off being disappointed with their performance some weeks than regret picking them up at all. I was in the latter group due to the fact that I was afraid of taking a rookie so early. Damn it.
James Robinson – Take a chance early on the waiver wire
If anyone had James Robinson before the season started, then could you also tell me the lottery numbers for tomorrow night? Like seriously, an undrafted rookie that runs a similar 40-time to Travis Kelce just dominates the Jaguars backfield and finishes the year as the RB7 whilst missing two games. He only needed 15 more points to be RB4 on the year, nearly three points lower than his average.
There was chatter coming out from the Jags’ camp that Robinson is their guy and has really impressed coaches. While all this was being ignored by the majority in favour of arguing over whether it’s Chris Thompson season or not, a few smart people picked up Robinson on the cheap. And with that, they secured an elite running-back that was consistently putting up RB1 numbers from day one.
Being quick to pick up someone can make all the difference, especially in a year like 2020 where seemingly every superstar went down for an extended period of time.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire and AJ Dillon – Workload really matters
Yes, he went to the reigning Super Bowl champions who have one of the most electric offenses in the league. Yes, Patrick Mahomes wanted him on his team. And yes, he’s a great player. But was Clyde Edwards-Helaire going to be good enough to force Andy Reid to hand the ball off to him more often or was he going to just take a backseat to Hill and Kelce.
The Chiefs had the third-highest number of passing attempts in the league along with the tenth-lowest number of rushing attempts. When you have arguably the best quarterback and tight-end in the league along with the most dynamic receiver and an evil genius of a head coach, it’s hard to see where Edwards-Helaire fits in. He finished the season as RB22 with some huge games, but also some slow games where he barely got a look.
While he’s great in football terms, joining a team stacked with superstars is not ideal as workload is key, especially for running-backs. A reliance on a running-back is ideal, which is what we see with Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey and the other elite backs. Your RB1 or even RB2 should be someone that is a focal point of the offense. At times this year I considered benching CEH because I truly didn’t believe that he would break 12 or 13 points.
It was a similar story for AJ Dillon this year. Playing with Aaron Jones was not a recipe for a break out season. Whilst Chase Edmonds pushed Kenyan Drake for his spot with some great play, Dillon barely beat out Jamal Williams for the back-up spot despite being remarkably efficient and dynamic with the ball in his hands.
De’Andre Swift, Antonio Gibson and JK Dobbins – Patience is key
Not every rookie running-back dominates from day one. Sometimes patience is needed as they adjust to the NFL while sitting behind men who could be their parents. Swift sat behind Adrian Peterson while he relived his glory days and Gibson watched Peyton Barber become a DFS stud in Week One with two touchdowns. You don’t win your league in your first few weeks. It’s over a dozen weeks.
While your friends panic and drop a stud for an undrafted slot receiver playing for the Jets, you should exercise patience and capitalize on other’s impatience. Dobbins didn’t get more than ten touches until his fifth week whereas Swift exploded in his sixth week. Gibson didn’t have a big week until Week 7 when he went for 128 yards on the ground to go with a rushing touchdown. Despite this, they all finished as RB2’s in Standard scoring leagues with Gibson pushing to be a RB1 at RB13 in PPR scoring leagues.
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