How Russell Wilson Can Be The QB1 In 2020
“Let Russ cook.”
This sentiment has echoed throughout the Seahawks fandom relentlessly over the years. It seemed as if Pete Carroll viewed Russell Wilson as only a vessel, used to hand the ball off to the running back. Carroll and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer show a blind loyalty to “establishing the run”, a cause that has proven futile time and time again. This stubborn commitment to 90’s football has somehow limited “Mr. Unlimited”.
Is Russell Wilson The QB1 In Our 2020 Rankings? Find Out Here!
Wilson is possibly the best fantasy QB of this decade, yet he only has one season as the QB1 to show for it. So what gives? Why should this season be any different?
The Best Passer in the NFL
It’s no secret that Wilson is an elite passer of the football. But, over the course of the 2019 season, Russell Wilson established himself as the best passer in the NFL. Better than Lamar, Brees, Rodgers, or even Mahomes.
Using Completion Percentage Over Expected (or CPOE), a metric that measures a quarterback’s throwing accuracy by comparing his completion percentage to the probability that each individual pass will be completed, Russell Wilson was the most accurate QB in the league with a CPOE of 7.13 (7.13 percentage points over the expected completion percentage).
Top 10 quarterback CPOE for the 2019 season
Wilson’s connection with Tyler Lockett also cannot be understated. Since Lockett was drafted, the connection between the two has been extremely strong, allowing Wilson to be among the league leaders in deep ball completion percentages year after year. When targeting Lockett, Wilson’s CPOE was an astounding 15.5, higher than any other QB-Receiver duo in the league. Unfortunately for the seahawks offense, Lockett looked to be battling injury during the second half of the season and wasn’t himself.
Enter D.K Metcalf
Over the second half of the season when Lockett was hampered by injury, D.K Metcalf stepped his game up immensely, as Wilson’s CPOE when targeting Metcalf since week 8 was 9.8, which is good for 7th among wide receivers in that timeframe. This Calvin Johnson carbon copy picked up right where Lockett left off, terrorizing the league with his quick first step and gargantuan size. Cornerbacks were no match for him, as he put up 5 weeks with 6+ receptions and 70+ yards over the back half of the season. With Lockett fully healthy and Metcalf continuing his elite production, there is no reason that Russell Wilson shouldn’t be able to repeat, if not improve upon, last year’s results.
CPOE for QB-Receiver duos over the second half of the season
Of course having a good CPOE doesn’t always correlate with elite fantasy production in the passing game. Nobody’s ever going to confuse Derek Carr with Patrick Mahomes. However, quarterbacks with a higher CPOE will always be more likely to produce the big plays and big games that will win you a week and hopefully a championship.
Improved Offensive Pieces
This offseason, the Seahawks have made an effort to bolster the offense around Wilson by making solid, under-the-radar acquisitions. Such additions include former first round linemen Chance Warmack and Cedric Ogbuehi, as well as receiving threats Phillip Dorsett and Greg Olsen. Dorsett is a standard issue deep threat, perfect for the Seattle deep passing attack. Olsen, however, is a much more intriguing addition. The former Cam Newton security blanket is both a serviceable blocker and receiving threat. Olsen allows the seahawks to utilize more 12 personnel and two tight end formations in general. The two tight end sets may provide extra blocking for a historically subpar offensive line, giving Russ a bit more time to launch a deep ball to his weapon of choice. The tight ends could also provide an extra receiving option, creating a horrible mismatch for a poor opposing linebacker.
These additions, while not flashy, bolster the depth of an offense that has not yet reached its full potential. Dorsett and Olsen, along with the return of Will Dissly from injury, will provide Seattle with quality depth at pass catcher. Depth which is more important than ever, due to the complications concerning COVID-19.
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Improved Defense
You may be asking yourself, “What does defense have to do with Russell Wilson?” On the surface, that is a completely valid question. However, the fact remains that the defense’s inability to stop opposing offenses provides less time for their own offense to produce, leading to less possible fantasy points. Over the last two years, the Seahawks defense ranked 16th in plays per drive with 5.7. This year Seattle will have a full season of Quandre Diggs along with star safety Jamal Adams, and PFF’s 2nd highest graded corner Quinton Dunbar (court ruling pending). Seahawks plays per drive rate should drop to among the league’s elite due to these acquisitions.
If Seattle’s plays per drive rate dropped even half a play to around 5.2 plays, they would save around 6-7 plays a game. This is equivalent to two to three minutes of game time against an average team. Against a run-first team like San Francisco, Seattle could save upwards of four minutes. This added time would undoubtedly translate to increased production for Russell Wilson, paving a path to 2020 QB1 status.
Pete Carroll vs. The Pass
Unfortunately, even if all these predictions come true, it is still up to Carroll and Schottenheimer to utilize Russell Wilson correctly. Even the best quarterbacks can be held to underwhelming fantasy production by a scheme that doesn’t maximize their talents. Carroll has shown a strong willingness to take the ball out of Wilson’s hands in past seasons and may do so this year as well. If the Seahawks want to run the ball every first and second down and ignore Wilson, they will do that. We as fantasy players and fans of the game just have to hope that the Seahawks know they have the greatest quarterback of this decade under center.
