NFL Draft Winners and Losers: AFC East Edition
Sir Isaac Newton’s First Law of Motion states “For every reaction, there is an equal and opposite reaction.” While physics and football aren’t often mentioned in the same conversation, the NFL Draft provides a perfect opportunity to examine how player values are affected by this law. For every rookie that landed in a dream spot, others are affected by that selection. Maybe it’s a new regime drafting a player that better fits their system. Maybe it’s a new top receiver coming in to disrupt target shares. Regardless, the NFL Draft causes a ripple effect throughout an entire team, and throughout the NFL. Below are some winners and losers for each NFL team, starting in the AFC East.
New England Patriots Winner: Jarrett Stidham, QB
The clearest winner in what will be a murky Patriot offseason is Jarrett Stidham. Throughout the draft, New England had opportunities to bring in a new QB for the future (even if Bill Belichick states otherwise). However, they failed to draft a QB throughout the entirety of the seven-round event. They signed two undrafted QBs, but neither should be relevant to Stidham’s hold on the job. As such, Stidham has to be a clear winner. He presents a “Buy and a Sell” opportunity. If an owner in your league is truly excited by Stidham, it’s a good opportunity to flip him for a profit. Meanwhile, he’s worth a cursory look to see if that Stidham owner in your league still isn’t convinced. Regardless, his stock is clearly on the rise.
New England Patriots Loser: New England WRs
While Stidham is a clear winner, it devastates all New England receiving options whose owners were praying for a high-draft capital QB. Julian Edelman drops several tiers without Tom Brady. Turning 34 next week, owners may need to sell low before his value is all but non-existent. Owners should give a cursory look at moving him off their team. While N’Keal Harry has upside still, Harry has lost value through the instability of the QB position. When Harry was the WR1 of last year’s rookie drafts, it was with the expectation that he could immediately produce and had Tom Brady at QB for the next few years. As neither of these happened, his stock took yet another hit, and the NFL Draft failed to assuage those concerns.
Buffalo Bills Winner: Josh Allen, QB
For Allen, the biggest win of the offseason came when Bills traded their first, fifth, and sixth-round picks in a deal for Stefon Diggs. With less draft capital from most teams, the Bills still used multiple picks to address concerns with the offense.
The Bills drafted RB Zack Moss in the third round, WR Gabriel Davis in the 4th, and WR Isaiah Hodgins in the sixth. With the addition of these new weapons, Allen seems poised to repeat, if not exceed, his QB 6 finish last year.
Buffalo Bills Loser: Devin Singletary, RB
Owners of Devin Singletary can tell you how frustrating last year was. Singletary looked the part of a quality NFL running back. Still, the Buffalo Bills decided to give Frank Gore 179 touches. When the Bills decided against bringing Gore back this year, Singletary owners rejoiced. Finally, the young RB would get the chance to vastly outpace the 180 touches Singletary managed last year. However, the Bills threw a wrench in those plans, drafting RB Zack Moss in the third round to fill that vacancy, and to siphon carries away from Singletary. While he may lead the backfield, he is no longer the clear-cut workhorse, and may not take the leap owners were hoping for in 2020.
New York Jets Winner: Sam Darnold, QB
Sam Darnold has had an interesting off-season. His value took a hit when the Jets decided to not re-sign Robby Anderson, one of Darnold’s favored targets. This was coming off a season where Darnold improved in yards, touchdowns, pass accuracy, interceptions, and quarterback rating, despite missing part of the year with mononucleosis. As such, the Jets needed to replace Anderson’s presence in the draft.
While many expected the Jets to take CeeDee Lamb or Jerry Jeudy, the Jets made a decision to further ensure that their QB of the future can remain standing next year. In addition to taking Mekhi Benton (OT) in the first round, the Jets further invested in Darnold’s success by adding Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor in the second. These additions will give Darnold a chance to continue improving as a QB, and to take the next step at the position. Now is the time to buy Darnold before he makes the jump into the top 15 at the position.
New York Jets Loser: Le’Veon Bell, RB
There aren’t many clear losers from the Jets as a result of the NFL draft. However, I’ve gone with Le’Veon Bell. After taking 2018 off from football, Bell returned with a thud, turning 245 rushing attempts into just 789 yards, an abysmal 3.2 yards per attempt. Bell’s patient running style failed to mesh with the Jets offense, and Adam Gase frequently voices his displeasure of Bell’s signing. Gase publically stated his desire to lessen Bell’s workload, and doubled-down on that desire by drafting La’Mical Perine in the fourth round. Bell owners should be concerned about workload and these conflicts with coaching, as well as Gase’s desire to utilize a committee approach. If Bell sees a downward tick in carries and fails to improve his YPC, it could spell trouble for anyone still holding onto the hope that Bell returns to his 2017 form.
Miami Dolphins Winner: Miami Dolphins WRs
The Dolphins made a large investment in their future during the NFL Draft. At the 5th pick, they drafted Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama, who is coming off of a devastating hip injury. With the concerns of Tua being ready for the season, there is a real possibility the Dolphins decide to red-shirt the prospect throughout the 2020 season. If they choose to protect their future, owners of Devante Parker and Preston Williams can feel somewhat comfortable with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm.
Last year, with Fitzpatrick at QB for most of the year, Parker finished as the WR 7 in .5 per leagues. Before he suffered an ACL tear, Williams was on his way to a potential 1,000-yard season as a rookie and was WR39 in the first nine weeks of the NFL Season. As such, with both short and long term secured, both Dolphins WRs are potential buys throughout the offseason. I am actively making moves for Williams, and Parker can be had in places where owners are concerned about his late bloom.
Miami Dolphins Loser: Jordan Howard, RB
Everything was set for Jordan Howard. He signed with the Dolphins as the clear lead running back in a backfield that was truly abysmal the previous year. With so many holes throughout the team, few expected the Dolphins to spend high capital on an RB. While the Dolphins didn’t draft an RB, the team decided to utilize a fifth-round draft pick to acquire Matt Breida from the San Francisco 49ers.
The oft-injured Breida has been stellar while on the field, averaging 5.0 yards per carry over his career. Additionally, Breida has an advantage over Howard in the receiving game. As such, Howard went from a clear lead back to a murky committee on what will likely be a below-average offense. While you can likely buy Howard for scraps (the 2.09 according to Dynasty101’s trade calculator), he may not be worth that risk with Breida’s arrival.
