Each year since 2018, I’ve created fantasy football projections for the entire league. It started as a fun exercise to see how I thought the league would shake out while also improving my Excel skills. It starts with predicting the entire 256 game NFL schedule. I predict the score of each game, and those scores flow through to my team table. Each team has its own allotted points, yards, plays, and TDs that I distribute to their players.
What I’ve found is this process unearths some diamonds in the rough. Last year, I was able to see that Lamar Jackson’s improved playing time would lead to massive rushing numbers. Jackson finished at QB6 in my projections. Add in otherworldly passing numbers, and we were able to witness a remarkable fantasy season.
Another success of projecting out a full season was Marvin Jones. He will forever be underrated, but when stating out the Detroit Lions, you’ll find that every year Jones is in line for an amazing workload. You’ll easily be able to see this by using projections.
This year I found ten players that I’m much higher on than consensus early in 2020. The format you’ll see is my position ranking, the player’s name, and the consensus ranking in parentheses.
10 Players My 2020 Fantasy Football Projections Are Higher On Than Consensus
10) QB17 Gardner Minshew (QB25)
If you combine Nick Foles and Gardner Minshew’s attempts last year, they threw it 587 times. I currently have Minshew projected for 563 attempts with similar efficiency metrics and decreased rushing efficiency. Yet still, he projects out as the 17th best QB for 2020. If the offense performs as efficiently as they did in 2019 (5.4 yards per play), Minshew’s production has an even higher ceiling.
9) TE13 Gerald Everett (TE32)
After using 11 personnel on 85% of plays YTD Sean McVay switched things up vs SEA.
Used 11 on only 58% of snaps & 12 on 36% of snaps (up from 5% YTD).
Problem was predictability:
100% pass on 38 snaps in 11
71% run on 24 snaps in 12
• the 7 passes from 12 were all play action— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) October 9, 2019
Sean McVay has made it a point to diversify their personnel packages by mixing in more than 11 personnel. With multiple TE on the field more often, this will lead to more production, especially now that Brandin Cooks is gone. Before his injury, Gerald Everett had a 14.5% target share in 2019, and that’s with a healthy Tyler Higbee in the lineup. Projecting a similar share in 2020, Gerald Everett provides a massive upside as a late-round TE target.
8) QB8 Ben Roethlisberger (QB15)
Take a look at the Steelers in 2019, and you’ll realize how hard it is to be good on offense with a backup QB. With Roethlisberger returning to the lineup, I expect the Steelers to jump in efficiency and Roethlisberger to sling it around the yard. That will lead to serious fantasy points for the entire offense.
7) QB7 Carson Wentz (QB12)
Wentz’s consensus ranking reflects more on his injury risk than his talent. However, projecting Wentz out for a full, 16 game schedule with a full year of Miles Sanders starts, a full season of Alshon Jeffery, and an additional weapon in the offense in Jalen Reagor shows enormous upside. If the health is there for the Eagles, this offense will provide incredible dividends in 2020.
6) WR33 Preston Williams (WR53)
If you extrapolate Williams’ 2019 first half across 16 games, Williams would’ve finished as the WR34. Averaging nearly eight targets per game, Preston Williams should provide some nice, late upside in fantasy drafts in 2020. I expect his ADP to rise as the preseason moves along so get the value now while you can.
5) RB23 Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB33)
What is really shocking about this projection is this includes a carry split similar to 2019. I don’t expect Ke’Shawn Vaughn to take over the “bellcow” role until later in 2020, but even with a near-even split in carries, Vaughn’s expected 3rd down work should boost his value. Rookie RB always performs considerably well compared to other rookies, and Vaughn should be no exception.
4) RB19 Cam Akers (RB30)
Everyone likes to look at Todd Gurley as washed up and minimal gas left in the tank. Even with two bad knees, Gurley managed over 1,000 yards from scrimmage and 14 total TD. Some analysts believe there will be more of a split between Akers and Darrell Henderson, but the draft capital spent on Akers says otherwise.
With massive holes on the OL and some defensive departures like Corey Littleton and Dante Fowler, the Rams decided to spend their very first draft pick on Cam Akers. That draft capital combined with Akers’ talent leads me to believe Akers will lead the backfield in touches. With McVay calling plays, the Rams’ offense is always one to invest in.
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3) WR15 Jarvis Landry (WR29)
Even with the Austin Hooper addition, I believe that Landry will continue his short field work in the passing game. I’m projecting an increase in performance from Baker Mayfield in year three, and this will lead to great production across the board. Landry slightly out-targeted Odell Beckham Jr. in 2019, and I don’t expect there to be a massive difference in 2020. Landry will forever be underrated and profiled as a “six-yard per catch” slot receiver, but in 2019 he posted a career-high in yards per catch. Landry should not be slept on in 2020 Drafts.
2) WR10 DK Metcalf (WR26)
It is rarer to find a productive rookie WR than it is to pick out a rookie RB breakout. In 2019, Metcalf posted a line of 58-900-7 in a passing attack that threw the ball less than 500 times. With some key departures on defense like Jadeveon Clowney and Mychal Kendricks, I expect the Seahawks to increase in passing attempts by about 6%. With this slight uptick in targets to go around, I expect Metcalf to not only lead the Seahawks in targets but to also continue his dominance.
1) RB6 Miles Sanders (RB13)
Sanders is quite the divisive player in fantasy circles heading into 2020. Some believe that the days of a committee are over in Philadelphia while others believe that Sanders will be stuck in a committee forever.
In the last seven games of the year, Sanders commanded a 65% carry share and a 12% target share. Even with additional weapons returning in the passing game, Sanders’ third-down prowess can’t be ignored. Even with a slight downturn in carry share, I expect Miles Sanders and the entire Philadelphia offense to explode in 2020.
