Top-5 Dynasty WRs Of 2020: AJ Brown and DJ Moore Make The Leap
As the calendar flips to 2020, it’s time to re-evaluate each player’s dynasty outlook and their short and long term value. After doing this exercise at the close of the 2019 season, it became evident that there was a need for some shuffling at the top of the dynasty WRs landscape. It was time to ask if familiar faces like DeAndre Hopkins still belonged and if recent dynasty breakouts like DJ Moore and AJ Brown were ready for the next tier. Factors that went into these determinations included age, production, college profiles, athleticism, and situation. Here are my new top-five dynasty WRs.
1. Michael Thomas, Saints
Michael Thomas is the consensus WR1 across most dynasty rankings services so it’s no surprise that he tops this list. He is coming off an incredible season in which he set the NFL record with 149 receptions and led the league in receiving yards (1,725). It was his third-straight season with over 140 targets and 100 receptions. Thomas led all wide receivers in target rate and was top-three in yards per route, catch rate, and yards after the catch. Thomas separated himself from the pack in 2019, thanks to his impeccable consistency. He had double-digit targets in 12 games and topped 100 receiving yards 10 times. Thomas finished outside the top-24 wide receivers in PPR scoring just twice in 16 games and was among the top-five nine times.
In the past, the argument against Thomas as a top dynasty asset was the uncertainty at the quarterback position considering Drew Brees is 41 years old. The 26-year-old wideout proved those doubters wrong when Brees missed five games in 2019. Thomas averaged nine receptions for 107 yards with three touchdowns in those five contests. Whether Brees is back for 2020 or not, Thomas’ fantasy value should not be impacted.
2. Chris Godwin, Buccaneers
Chris Godwin was my top breakout candidate for the 2019 season. He was on my roster on just about every one of my redraft teams and I have had him everywhere in dynasty since he entered the league in 2017. He didn’t only breakout in 2019, he exceeded all expectations, finishing as the WR2 despite missing the final two games with a hamstring injury. Godwin ended the season with 86 receptions on 120 targets for 1,333 yards and nine touchdowns and was voted to his first Pro Bowl. His 19.72 fantasy points per game were the most by a wide receiver in franchise history. He did that while competing for targets with fellow Pro Bowler Mike Evans, who had 1,157 of his own yards and eight scores.
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It was no surprise to see Godwin have the season he did. He always had the profile of a star pass-catcher but was just lacking in opportunity. In his first two seasons, Godwin had to compete for snaps with established veterans like Evans, DeSean Jackson, and Adam Humphries. But when he did get his chances, Godwin displayed the talent we always knew he had. At Penn State, Godwin had a Breakout Age of 19.5 (77th-percentile) and a College Dominator Rating of 34.9 percent (67th-percentile). He proved to be a big-play threat by averaging 16.6 (77th-percentile) yards per reception in his final college season. He displayed elite athleticism with his performance at the NFL Combine, providing a further window into his future dominance. The point is, Godwin’s 2019 was no fluke. We saw this coming and dynasty owners should not hesitate to go all-in on the 23-year-old.
While there are quarterback concerns in Tampa Bay, it should not be enough to keep Godwin out of the elite WR1 conversation in 2020 and beyond. He will be just 24-years-old when the season begins with a bright future ahead of him.
3. D.J. Moore, Panthers
Like Godwin, D.J. Moore’s breakout came as no surprise. He was a 97th-percentile dominator at Maryland with an age 18 breakout and elite athleticism. He showed flashes as a rookie, with three top-20 fantasy performances over the second half of the season, including a 157-yard performance against Detroit.
Moore made the year-one to year-two leap we were expecting. He went from WR49 in fantasy points per game in 2018 to WR14 in 2019. He did it despite some of the worst quarterback play in the league. Moore was top-10 among wide receivers in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. He had a 24.3-percent target rate even with both Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel topping 100 targets. Moore displayed his yards-after-the-catch ability that we loved so much coming out of Maryland, with 392 (No.8) of his 1,175 receiving yards coming after the reception.
He made history by becoming the 17th player to reach 1,100 receiving yards in a single season before his 23rd birthday. Prior to Moore, only four other wide receivers ever had a season of at least 87 receptions and 1,175 receiving yards in their age 21-22 season: JuJu Smith-Schuster (2018), Odell Beckham Jr. (2014), Josh Gordon (2013), and Larry Fitzgerald (2005).
Let’s not forget he did this with inefficient quarterback play. Looking towards 2020 and beyond, the quarterback situation will undoubtedly improve, whether it’s Cam Newton or someone else. The team already made coaching changes, bringing in former Baylor head man Matt Rhule and innovative offensive coordinator Joe Brady, fresh off a national championship victory with LSU. Oh, and Moore will only be 23 years old during the entire 2020 campaign.
4. Juju Smith-Schuster, Steelers
After two impressive seasons to start his career, Juju Smith-Schuster was a consensus top-three dynasty wide receiver—even holding the top spot on many analysts’ rankings. Entering 2019, Smith-Schuster finally held the WR1 spot in the Pittsburgh offense with Antonio Brown shipped out of town. The hype was high for the young stud who was still only 22 years old entering the season. But a rash of injuries and the loss of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger early in the year led to a disappointing campaign. After averaging more than 16 fantasy points per game over his first two seasons, Smith-Schuster was WR60 (9.4 fantasy points per game) on a per-game basis in 2019.
Falling so short of expectations dropped Smith-Schuster in most people’s rankings and caused many to wonder what it means. Some attribute his step backwards to the loss of Brown, arguing Juju doesn’t have the means to be the alpha in the Steelers offense. But that is lazy analysis. In three games without Brown in 2017-2018, Smith-Schuster averaged 21.2 fantasy points per game with 20 receptions and three touchdowns. The real issue was the loss of Roethlisberger and Juju’s own battle with a knee sprain, toe sprain, and concussion which landed him on a combined eight final injury reports and forced him to miss four games.
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Why is it so easy to just write off 2019 as a lost season and not a red flag? Because Juju was so good at such a young age. Everything pointed towards an elite dynasty asset. He tallied 2,867 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns in the NFL before his 23rd birthday. He was top-five among wide receivers in targets, receptions, and receiving yards in his age 21-22 season. Prior to that, he was a dominant producer with an age 18 breakout at USC.
With both Roethlisberger and Smith-Schuster back to full health in 2020, there’s no reason to shy away from Juju. He remains a top-five dynasty wide receiver and can be had at a discounted rate from any owner panicked over what happened in 2019. I fully expect he will pick right back up where he left off in 2018.
5. A.J. Brown, Titans
A.J. Brown was a top wide receiver prospect in the 2019 draft class, only to slip in rankings due to a perceived poor landing spot. But Brown proved that talent is greater than situation and vaulted to the top of the class with an impressive rookie campaign. He turned his 84 targets into 1,051 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. He was top-three in yards per reception (20.2), yards per target (12.5), and yards per route (3.46). Brown led all wide receivers in production premium, which measures a player’s efficiency against league averages, and was sixth in yards after the catch.
He had five top-10 fantasy weeks and finished among the top-21 in five of the last six weeks of the season. Brown finished second in fantasy points per route and fantasy points per target. Quarterbacks Marcus Mariota and Ryan Tannehill combined for the third-best quarterback rating when targeting their rookie breakout star.
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I loved Brown coming out of Mississippi so his rookie performance was not a surprise. He had to contend with two other quality NFL draft prospects (D.K. Metcalf and DaMarkus Lodge) for targets over his career at Ole Miss, but still produced a 32.6-percent dominator rating. Brown combined for 2,572 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns on 160 receptions over 23 games during his sophomore and junior campaigns and finished his three-year career with the most receiving yards in school history. He smashed the Combine, showing off his elite athleticism while measuring in at 6-0, 226-pounds.
Brown checks all the boxes and is well worth this ascension into elite dynasty wide receiver territory. It is likely the Titans bring back Tannehill, with whom Brown connected so well with, for 2020 and beyond. Brown is already an established alpha WR1 so even if the Titans draft another wideout there is no reason to shy away from Brown as a top asset. Most dynasty rankings services don’t have Brown in their top-five and he had a January ADP of WR11 according to DLF, so the window to buy is still open.
Who Missed The Cut?
6. Tyreek Hill, Chiefs: Off the field concerns cap his value at WR6.
7. Davante Adams, Packers: One to two more years of peak age production left.
8. DeAndre Hopkins, Texans: With a decline in efficiency in 2019 and his 28th birthday just months away, Hopkins’ days as a top-five dynasty WR are over.
