Inter-Class Rankings: What Is The Real Value Of My 2020 Pick?

The Value of 2020 Dynasty Draft Picks

Now that we’ve previewed the 2020 class, let’s figure out where these guys stack up compared to the last two draft classes. This is a helpful exercise that I use to learn the value of my 2020 draft picks. If a 2020 prospect is ahead of someone I had in my 2018 rankings, that causes me to value that high end first round pick a little bit more.

For example, I completed this exercise prior to my rookie drafts back in May of 2019, and learned that I wasn’t in love with the 2019 draft class, outside of having a top two selection. I didn’t own either of those picks.  After determining I wasn’t able to get my guys in 2019, my focus shifted to 2020 since I have many players from that class near the top of my composite draft board. I was able to trade back and out of the first round in 2019 to acquire 2020 and 2021 first round draft capital.

The Process

A downfall of dynasty owners is to almost think on a seasonal basis for rookie drafts and select the best player available (BPA) instead of being aware of what the future holds. For example, in 2017 I saw a significant tier break after the top six players (in no order… Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffery, Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, Corey Davis and Mike Williams). If I held a draft pick in the 8-12 range, I was targeting a trade with one of the worst teams in the league. I’d do this knowing that the 2018 class had game breakers like Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb, Derrius Guice and D.J. Moore.

Based on FF Calculator ADP, trading a pick in ranges 8-12 meant I missed out on Samaje Perine, Alvin Kamara, O.J. Howard, David Njoku, and D’Onta Foreman. Kamara and the two TEs are the only pieces I’d want to spend a first rounder on. Without knowing Kamara’s sky-high potential, it would be down to taking one of the first round TEs or trading that pick for a lottery ticket shot at Barkley, Chubb, Guice or Moore.

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Projecting underclassmen who might declare is a risky game. For example, I was fairly confident that Tyler Johnson from Minnesota was going to enter the 2019 NFL Draft and I was angling to get into the mid first round to acquire him. Johnson returned to school, and thankfully I hadn’t made a move to put myself in a position to draft him. If you really love an underclassmen prospect, protect yourself by acquiring picks for his projected declaration year and the following. You can always use draft picks two years from now to move up if your target does in fact declare.

Let’s get into the exercise. I dug out my notebooks and found my final rankings for the 2018, 2019 and the 2020 draft classes. The 2018 and 2019 rankings became final after the prospect was selected in their respective NFL Drafts.

2018 rankings

QB

1. Baker Mayfield

2. Sam Darnold

3. Lamar Jackson

4. Josh Rosen

5. Josh Allen

There was never a question for me about Mayfield’s ability as a passer, but in hindsight I was a little low on Josh Allen from a fantasy perspective due to his rushing floor.

 

RB

 

1. Saquon Barkley

2. Derrius Guice

3. Nick Chubb

4. Kerryon Johnson

5. Sony Michel

This was a remarkable RB class. Still waiting on Guice to play, but I think you’d be happy with any of these guys.

 

WR

1. D.J. Moore

2. Dante Pettis

3. Courtland Sutton

4. Calvin Ridley

5. Christian Kirk

Moore and Pettis came on strong to finish 2019, and Ridley scored 10 TDs. I expect Sutton to grow in year two and Kirk to see a significant increase in volume under Kliff Kingsbury.

 

TE

1. Mark Andrews

2. Dallas Goedert

3. Mike Gesicki

4. Ian Thomas

5. Hayden Hurst

I loved what Andrews brought to the Oklahoma offense and what he did for Mayfield. Goedert has the highest ceiling of the bunch due to his athleticism, much like Gesicki.

2019 rankings

 

QB

1. Kyler Murray

2. Dwayne Haskins

3. Daniel Jones

4. Drew Lock

5. Will Grier

Murray and Haskins should see playing time early, while Jones and Lock may need to sit and develop a bit.

 

RB

1. Josh Jacobs

2. David Montgomery

3. Miles Sanders

4. Darrell Henderson

5. Damien Harris

Jacobs and Montgomery look to lead their team’s backfields in 2019, while Sanders and Harris should be in a committee. The wild card is Henderson. We will have to see how the Todd Gurley situation unfolds.

 

WR

1. N’Keal Harry

2. Deebo Samuel

3. A.J. Brown

4. D.K. Metcalf

5. J.J. Arcega-Whiteside

All five of these players were drafted in the top two rounds of the NFL draft. I am excited to see what they can do.

 

TE

1. T.J. Hockenson

2. Noah Fant

3. Irv Smith, Jr

4. Jace Sternberger

5. Josh Oliver

An elite TE class headlined by two top-20 picks. Hockenson and Fant should produce in 2019, while the other three may follow a slightly delayed path to targets.

2020 rankings

 

QB

1. Tua Tagovailoa

2. Justin Herbert

3. Jake Fromm

4. Jacob Eason

5. Jordan Love

Some heavy hitters in this class, likely three first round picks. Eason and Love can improve on their draft stock with a solid 2019.

 

RB

1. D’Andre Swift

2. Travis Etienne

3. Jonathan Taylor

4. Eno Benjamin

5. Cam Akers

Swift, Etienne, and Taylor will all battle for RB1. Benjamin could be a great fantasy asset with his receiving ability.

WR

1. Jerry Jeudy

2. Laviska Shenault Jr

3. Tyler Johnson

4. Tee Higgins

5. Jalen Reagor

Some great talent here. Jeudy is a transcendent talent, and a likely top 15 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft

TE

1. Albert Okwuegbunam

2. Jared Pinkney

3. Mitchell Wilcox

4. Grant Calcaterra

5. Jacob Breeland

Not as star studded as 2019, but Okwuegbunam and Pinkney offer late first round potential in the 2020 NFL Draft.

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Now for the grand finale… the composite top-15 for each position.

2018, 2019, and 2020 Interclass Rankings

QB

1. Baker Mayfield (18)

2. Kyler Murray (19)

3. Tua Tagovailoa (20)

4. Justin Herbert (20)

5. Sam Darnold (18)

6. Dwayne Haskins (19)

7. Lamar Jackson (18)

   

8. Daniel Jones (19)

9. Jake Fromm (20)

10. Josh Rosen (18)

11. Josh Allen (18)

12. Jacob Eason (20)

13. Drew Lock (19)

14. Jordan Love (20)

15. Will Grier (19)

RB

1. Saquon Barkley (18)

2. D’Andre Swift (20)

3. Travis Etienne (20)

4. Derrius Guice (18)

5. Jonathan Taylor (20)

6. Nick Chubb (18)

7. Kerryon Johnson (18)

8. Eno Benjamin (20)

9. Josh Jacobs (19)

10. David Montgomery (19)

11. Cam Akers (20)

12. Sony Michel (18)

13. Miles Sanders (19)

14. Darrell Henderson (19)

15. Damien Harris (19)

WR

1. Jerry Jeudy (20)

2. D.J. Moore (18)

3. Dante Pettis (18)

4. Laviska Shenault Jr (20)

5. N’Keal Harry (19)

6. Tyler Johnson (20)

7. Deebo Samuel (19)

8. A.J. Brown (19)

9. Courtland Sutton (18)

10. Tee Higgins (20)

11. Jalen Reagor (20)

12. Calvin Ridley (18)

13. Christian Kirk (18)

14. D.K. Metcalf (19)

15. J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (19)

TE

1. T.J. Hockenson (19)

2. Noah Fant (19)

3. Mark Andrews (18)

4. Albert Okwuegbunam (20)

5. Jared Pinkney (20)

6. Dallas Goedert (18)

7. Mike Gesicki (18)

8. Irv Smith Jr (19)

9. Ian Thomas (18)

10. Jace Sternberger (19)

11. Mitchell Wilcox (20)

12. Grant Calcaterra (20)

13. Josh Oliver (19)

14. Hayden Hurst (18)

15. Jacob Breeland (20)

These rankings for this exercise were truncated to only include the top-five across each class. It does not include my sixth ranked WR from any class, despite the potential for the sixth best WR in 2020 to be better than the fifth best in either 2018 or 2019. These composite rankings do not take into account the growth of a player. For example, Jerry Jeudy as my WR1 does not mean I would trade D.J. Moore for him (or an equivalent pick) yet. I try to use these composite rankings to see the potential of these picks. Essentially, if you were excited about Sony Michel, you should be ecstatic about D’Andre Swift.

Hope you enjoyed this technique of mine!

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