2020 Fantasy Football: Don’t Draft These Former Studs
There are two different types of fantasy football manager. There’s the ones who do their research and understand who they are targeting in drafts (hint: if you’re reading an article about fantasy football strategy then this is probably you) and there’s the ones who draft the players they know. There’s usually at least one of these in your home league and they will almost certainly do something that even the first kind of manager could get tempted to do, they will draft a name-brand player way too early.
We all yearn for past glories and when those players are sitting on the draft board and the seconds are ticking down, it can be tempting for the fond memories to take control of your trigger finger.
So with that in mind, I looked at some players who will go way too early because of their name rather than the expectation of where they can finish. Be smart and don’t draft these players in 2020 fantasy football.
Quarterback – Aaron Rodgers
Controversial start perhaps, but Aaron Rodgers has not been the same player for the last couple of years and there’s no indication to suggest that’s going to change this year.
In 2016, Rodgers was the number one Quarterback across the season and number one in points per game. He threw 40 touchdowns. In fact, from 2011-2016, Rodgers’ 16-game pace averaged 38 touchdowns per year (a 6.9-percent touchdown rate). For comparison, Lamar Jackson threw 36 touchdowns in 2019 (9.0-percent touchdown rate) and in 2018, Patrick Mahomes threw 50 touchdowns (8.6-percent touchdown rate). Rodgers was damn good and worthy of being taken as one of the first QBs off the board.
Draft Or Don’t Draft: See Where Rodgers Lands In Our 2020 Fantasy Rankings!
In 2017, Rodgers suffered from injury and only played seven games. He finished QB31 overall but was still QB5 on a per-game basis.
But in 2018, he was QB12 on a per-game basis, and QB18 in 2019. He’s displaying a steady decline and his touchdown rate has dropped to 4.2 and 4.6-percent over this period (25 and 26 touchdowns).
Yes that touchdown rate could bounce back but there’s a few things working against it. Not only has Rodgers become less of a risk taker but he has a committee of running backs including the guy who rushed for 16 touchdowns on the ground last year, and a big bruising back who was drafted in the second round of this year’s draft. He also has a head coach who comes from a run-heavy titans scheme which many believe he is looking to replicate.
He could bounce back in to that top 12 this year but he’s not someone who should be taken early. There will still be someone in your home league who remembers those glories past and believes in the bounce back, don’t be surprised if they take him multiple rounds too early.
Running Back – Todd Gurley
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. And this one is in very recent memory.
RB1 in 2017, RB3 in 2018….RB14 in 2019. A big drop off. There’s a lot said about Gurley’s knees causing him the problems and that he could break down at any moment. But he managed OK last year and played 15 games.
The problem with Gurley’s RB14 finish last year was that it was propped up by touchdowns. If you look at total yards alone, he would have been RB21.
Related | Todd Gurley: The Optimistic Approach To His Injury History
He’s changing teams so could get a new lease of life with the Falcons. The bad news, Atlanta were 24th in rushing touchdowns in 2019 and 23rd in 2018 (the Rams were 4th and 2nd respectively). Gurley got more chances inside the 10 and inside the 5 in 2019 than the entire Atlanta backfield combined. He just simply is not going to get the same opportunity to score touchdowns on a pass-heavy team.
He could still be a value in a 2020 fantasy draft at the right price but don’t be the drafter who reaches to grab him because you never got the chance in previous years!
Wide Receiver – Julian Edelman
Here’s a player who has been seemingly undervalued every year and every year he outperforms his average draft position, especially in PPR.
In 2018 he finished 13th in points-per-game and in 2019 he finished 12th (8th overall). His 16 game pace since 2013 has seen him get 153 targets – that’s huge. Only three other receivers got more than that in 2019 and two of those were 157 or below.
But here’s the issue with Edelman, he had a mind-meld with Tom Brady and was the go-to receiver time and time again for him. We don’t have much of a sample size of games without Brady but for the first four games of 2016 (when Brady was suspended for deflating his balls…stop it!), Edelman was targeted at a 16-game pace of 108. That’s not bad but it’s not the volume he needs to give you high-level production for your team. If you applied the rest of his stats from 2019 to that volume (catch rate, yards per reception, touchdown rate) he would have finished as WR36 behind Cole Beasley and Larry Fitzgerald.
To Draft or Don’t Draft: See Where Edelman Lands In Our 2020 Fantasy Rankings!
Edelman is still likely the primary target on his team but he has a new quarterback and we don’t know how that’s going to play out. What we do know is that Cam Newton, unlike Brady, can run. Where Brady would look to Edelman when he was under pressure, Newton can tuck and go (yes I know I used the word ‘tuck’ in a section that mentions Brady, sorry Raiders fans). And did I mention that Edelman is 34? We’ve been waiting for the age-driven drop off for a few years from him and he keeps producing, but it’s coming. And are we sure that Brady wasn’t sharing his elixir of youth that he clearly must have?! He’s definitely taking that to Tampa with him.
Edelman has a lot going against him to produce this year and the savvy managers amongst us should recognise this. Don’t draft him too early because of who he is.
Tight End – Rob Gronkowski
Ok, this one is tough. It’s tough because outside of the first few tight ends there’s a swathe of guys who could be useful for your team. And a few extra touchdowns for your Tight End can make all the difference. In his prime, Gronkowski regularly scored double-digit touchdowns, a feat only Mark Andrews achieved in 2019.
Put it this way, if Jason Witten had scored 10 touchdowns in 2019, he would have been TE7. That’s how much impact those touchdowns can have.
So Gronkowski could still be that guy for Brady in the end zone, that’s the appeal. But recent chatter out of Tampa Bay is that Gronkowski is not settling in quite so well and he won’t be first man up. Remember also that Bruce Arians has some kind of deep-seated hatred for tight ends (those of us who drafted OJ Howard last year know all about that).
Oh, and he’s also been concentrating on wrestling since we last saw him on an NFL field nearly two years ago now. The fact is that he could be a bust and there will be someone who drafts him way too early in the expectation that they’re getting ‘old Gronk’ – don’t be that manager!
Bonus Round
Finally, and most people reading this will already know this, but don’t draft a kicker ahead of your last couple of rounds.
We’ve all seen it, there’s always one manager who fills up their starting line up and drafts Justin Tucker in the 9th round. If you still have kickers in your league, please don’t do this. There’s plenty of useable kickers, they aren’t going to give you a positional advantage to draft them early, it’s not worth it. Seriously. Don’t.
I’ll leave you with one last nugget of wisdom when it comes to drafting the big name players. Know their value. Know where you’re willing to take them and don’t get sucked in when the seconds are ticking down on your pick. Let someone else take them and you can go get a better player for a better value.
