The 2020 Draft Class was historically great, with thirteen receivers selected in the first two rounds. However, it’s not the first-round picks who are destined for greatness, it’s the last receiver selected in the second round, Denzel Mims. Mims was taken with the 59th-overall pick by the New York Jets. The number one trending player on PlayerProfiler is going to be the next great WR1 in the NFL.
Why Denzel Mims is the next great WR1
He Has All The Tools
Mims has every tool you would ever want in an outside receiver.
Speed
He ran a 4.38 forty at 6-3 207 pounds. When adjusted for his weight and size, he was in the 96th-percentile in speed score at PlayerProfiler. Since 2000, there have only been two cornerbacks who have run a sub-4.4 forty at 6-2 or taller.
Explosiveness
Mims is going to be a nightmare downfield for the next decade. If a defender can match his speed, he’ll use a combination of his 38.5-inch vertical and 95th-percentile catch radius to embarrass them at the catch point.
Agility
Whilst, not his specialty, he isn’t a Metcalf, finishing the three-cone drill in under 6.7 seconds. Good for the tenth best time by a receiver that is 6-2 or taller. An identical time to Julio Jones, who nobody would call stiff. His shuttle time hides how agile he really is, forcing his agility score on PlayerProfiler into the 67th-percentile.
When Julio Jones is his closest combine comparison, you know he’s a freaky athlete. Their scores at the combine were scarily similar. Both benched in the high teens and had identical verticals and cone times. Jones was marginally faster in the forty. The only drill Jones beat Mims well in was the shuttle. At the same height as Jones, Mims has the frame to pack on more muscle to make up for the 13-pound difference.
Route running
Not a technician by any means, but he has an array of releases. He deserves more credit for knowing how to stack a DB on a go-route and is great at hand-fighting. If a cornerback presses him at the line of scrimmage, he’s strong enough to fight him off. Mims plays like a veteran, using nudges and tricks of the trade to edge the odds into his favor. Throughout college, he often used pure athleticism to dominate defenders but at the Senior Bowl Mims showed an improvement in technique, often winning with quickness, subtlety, and route-running. This rapid improvement bodes well for his time in the NFL.
Ball skills
The man knows how to snag a ball. The body control, hand-eye coordination, and strong hands will help him deep downfield, across the middle, and in the red zone. In college, he caught 28 touchdowns over three years, with 12 coming in his final year. Whenever his quarterback failed him, which was often, Mims pulled a miracle out of his back pocket, winning contested catches regularly. He caught 84.6-percent of his catchable targets, averaging over 70-percent on go-routes and fades.
The Future Is Bright, And Wide Open
With Jamison Crowder labeled at the Jets WR1, Mims will battle it out with Breshad Perriman for WR2. Crowder played in the slot 82-percent of the time last year. In Miami, from 2016 to 2018, 85-percent of the passing plays under Gase included at least three receivers. In 2019, 91-percent of the Jets passing plays coming from formations with a minimum of three receivers. This indicates that there is a starting spot for Mims the moment he walks on to the Jets roster.
Whilst Perriman is a great receiver in his own right, a true burner, Mims will get plenty of targets as Darnold will soon get to love his sure-handed freak athlete of a receiver. With an ability to make defenders miss with the ball in his hands, Mims will get opportunities all across the field, including the red zone. He will walk onto the Jets roster and instantaneously become their best red-zone threat.
With the departure of Robby Anderson and Demaryius Thomas, over 35-percent of the targets are up for grabs. Perriman has averaged 49 targets per season so far in his career. Thomas’ 12-percent share of the targets should fall into Perriman’s lap, who beyond running deep, provides little else to the Jets offense.
In Anderson’s last two years with the Jets, he averaged 95 targets and 15 yards-per-reception. Mims should enjoy a similar amount of targets, and with a larger frame and better hands than Anderson, a higher catch rate. A career catch rate closer to 65-percent appears feasible for Mims, who will be playing with the best quarterback of his life in Sam Darnold. Whilst Anderson has a slight speed edge on Mims, the combination of the young receiver’s size, speed, and ball skills will help him rank as one of the league leaders in yards-per-reception. Mims is both a deep ball winner and a home-run threat on slants, averaging 6.7 yards after the catch on slants.
2020 Projections
- 90 targets at 65-percent catch rate = 59 catches
- 59 catches at 16.5 yards-per-reception = 973 yards
- 8 TDs overall
This would have placed him as WR25 in 2019 in PPR leagues with 204 fantasy points. Not unreasonable considering 21 past rookie receivers have gone for 900-plus yards in their first year. With little competition on the roster, Mims should claim the majority of Anderson’s vacated targets. Playing against the Patriots and Bills twice a year will result in plenty of catch-up, where Darnold takes shots downfield, an area Mims excels in.
2021 Projections
- 110 targets at 65-percent catch rate = 71 catches
- 71 catches at 17 yards-per-reception = 1,207 yards
- 10 TDs overall
PPR Points = 251.7 (WR9 in 2019)
Take him now before someone else in your dynasty league does. Or trade for him. Either way, make sure you get the next great WR1 in the NFL.
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