What Are We Doing with Travis Etienne in Dynasty?
Travis Etienne 2024 Dynasty Value
2023 saw a huge leap in the rankings for Travis Etienne, as he finished as RB3 and was a mainstay of many championship-caliber rosters in fantasy football. At first blush, Etienne seems like a candidate to ride with until the wheels fall off. However, there are several concerning factors even in a small sample size that begs the question: what are the anomalies in a leap from 2022’s RB17? Stats don’t lie, but they can inform us on which way to lean.
Backfield Takeover
After his first season in a Jacksonville Jaguars uniform was over before it begun due to injury, Etienne responded with a 1,000-yard campaign in 2022. He accomplished the feat while starting just 12 games on the season, capping it off with a tremendous 1,441 yards from scrimmage. He finished as RB17 in fantasy (PPR).
Etienne began the season as the second running back to James Robinson but was heavily involved from the get-go. He worked his way into the starting role and made Robinson expendable. The latter was shipped off to the New York Jets and the Jacksonville backfield belonged to the Clemson product. In his 12 starts, he rushed for 1,125 yards while also securing 35 receptions for another 316. He found paydirt five times on the season and lost four fumbles.
Although the team drafted Tank Bigsby (Auburn) in the 2023 offseason, Etienne was still clearly the top dog. In a year marred with injuries at every skill position, he remained remarkably durable. The 215lb running back started all 17 games for the Jaguars, totaling 1,008 yards on the ground. He also accounted for 476 yards through the air on 58 receptions.
Ch-Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes
Etienne was partying in the end zone on 12 occasions and did not lose grip of the football in 2023. His yards per touch dipped significantly from 5.7 in 2022 to 4.6. Further cause for alarm bells was the difference in rushing yards per attempt: 5.1 in 2022 down to 3.8 in 2023; a significant decline. In fact, his 3.8/ypa average ranked 18th among running backs with at least 200 carries. His rushing yards/game were down, too, from 66 to 59. That is not entirely concerning considering Etienne brought in 23 more catches.
The Jacksonville running back’s fantasy success relied almost exclusively on his touchdown production. 12 of them is impressive enough, but more surprising is that this pass-catching back only scored once on a ball delivered by Trevor Lawrence.
The chances of replicating that touchdown prowess are not good. After all, the Jaguars did not draft Bigsby 88th-overall to simply warm the bench. With a similar build to Etienne, Bigsby could begin to vulture some red zone opportunities as early as next season. Couple that with Jacksonville’s recognition of need in surrounding Lawrence with more targets could be an issue. If Etienne had duplicated his five touchdown effort of 2022, his fantasy ranking would have dropped this season from RB3 to RB13.
What Are We Doing with Travis Etienne?
Make no mistake about it, this is not “Travis Etienne: A Cautionary Tale”. Looking at it from all plausible angles, Etienne could revisit his RB3 status in 2024. Austin Ekeler was near (or at) the top of the rankings thrice from 2019-2022. Etienne’s ability as a pass-catcher and role as the spark plug of the offense means he is always a threat to score, and he will likely supplement some of the loss of ground scores with ones through the air. As the Jaguars go, so goes Etienne. Which dynasty owners will ride until the wheels fall off?
Verdict: The 25-year-old Jaguars running back’s value is likely at its ceiling. Dynasty managers in immediate contention in 2024 should hold onto Etienne and hope to catch lightning in a bottle for one more season. For all others, this is a selling opportunity that will not come around again.
Managers should have a reliable stable of backs before making a sale, as the 2024 draft class is a backfield crapshoot. Thanks to the talent dropoff, moving Etienne for a pick just outside of the top three is a near guarantee. Most owners would not balk at requesting a second-rounder in 2024 or 2025, as well.
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Let’s Hear It from Other Analysts!
“Currently, I’m confidently holding onto Travis Etienne. His early-season performance showed too much promise. The Jaguars are poised for a comeback next season, and I firmly believe Etienne will play a pivotal role in driving their success.” – Trent, thefantasyfootballdudes.com
“Selling Dynasty Running Backs is typically good business. Etienne did not finish strong, but he finished as the RB3 on the season. Tank Bigsby was not a problem and he played every game. This was his best season to date The 2024 class is lacking in running backs and that should work to your advantage. You can easily turn him into a mid-first, he is the FantasyPros consensus RB6. If you could get a mid or late 2nd added, this is how you build. If the Jaguars add a back this offseason, his price could drop again.” – Dave Heilman, SGPN Senior Dynasty Analyst
“Really excited for Travis Etienne going forward. Doug Pederson showed (his trust in) him and will continue to do so. I’m personally holding Etienne and will buy for the right price. I feel as though at minimum a first rounder will have to be involved. Possibly having to add a player on top of the pick for even value. Could also go the higher caliber player + a 2nd rounder. That’s more so from a dynasty player’s mindset. As the Jaguars improve their offensive line and get better as a team, it will only positively affect Etienne. I’m all aboard the train!” – FFTony – Content Creator @JWB_FF
…and
“Travis Etienne is a sell. After coming off finishing as the RB3 on the season, his value may never be higher. With the fluidity of the RB position and the general inability to stay on the field consistently from the position group, now is the time to capitalize on his touchdown-dependent finish. The per-touch metrics weren’t fantastic last year, and there’s no telling (whether) he has the same touchdown luck as 2023.” – Ryan, B.S.ing Sports Network
“Etienne is one of the safer running backs in the dynasty landscape. For competing teams, he can be the crown jewel on a complete roster. With the state of the running back position in dynasty, he’ll turn 25 on 1/26 and his price will drop. If your team is still a year away, I’d sell at his mid-first-round prices. I’d look to buy for any pick outside the top seven in superflex leagues, and just hold if my team is competing to begin with.” Mike Kashuba, Editor at Last Word on Pro Football & Co-Host of the Fantasy Football RPG Podcast
Have a suggestion of a player to feature in “What Are We Doing with…”? Email Sam Schneider at samwiseYPF@gmail.com
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