What Are We Doing with George Pickens in Dynasty?
George Pickens 2024 Dynasty Value
Every team wants explosiveness from their skill positions. The key is to hone that explosiveness in terms of taking care of business while not allowing it to seep into other areas of one’s game. George Pickens is one of the most explosive wide receivers in the NFL, but his occasional lack of focus and misguiding said explosiveness makes him a tough nut to crack in terms of on-field reliability. How does that affect his fantasy relevance?
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Locked In
When things are going according to plan, Pickens locks onto the ball with an uncanny array of ways to reel it in. His 6’3” frame create a broad catch radius featuring the ability to go up and over defensive backs. At 200-plus pounds, he can equally throw his weight into a block or fight his way off the line of scrimmage.
This is especially evident in his favorite way of gaining separation wherein he blasts off the LOS and simply knocks the defensive back onto his rear end. There are countless highlights of him doing this to some of the best in the business. It is hilarious, unexpected, effective, and completely legal. From there, the Steelers’ wideout can use his 4.47 speed to break away, to fantasy managers’ delight.
Who’s Throwing Today?
Pickens ranked as WR40 as a rookie in 2022 with 52 receptions and 801 yards. He provided the “boom” factor by ranking fourth among wide receivers (50 or more receptions) with 15.4 yards per catch. The wideout started just 12 games and did most of his damage with Kenny Pickett (QB28 on the season). He also topped the league in catch rates over expectation while also recording the most contested catches ever by a rookie, according to Pro Football Focus.
2023 saw him bring in 63 more balls totaling 1,140 yards and a league-leading 18.1-yard average, vaulting him to WR29 in PPR fantasy leagues. Curiously, he clicked with (of all people) quarterback Mason Rudolph. The two accounted for 326 yards in just two games before Pickens was held catchless in a low-scoring Week 18 finale against the Baltimore Ravens. Prior to those two affairs, he was projecting a very minor improvement over the previous season amidst playing far more snaps – before eventually blowing his previous yardage total out of the water.
Who is “next man up” under center? It might not matter. Pittsburgh’s eyebrow-raising hire of former Atlanta Falcons head coach Arthur Smith as offensive coordinator begets loads of question marks after his perceived mishandling of the offense in Georgia. Will he completely commit to the run game in the smash-mouth AFC North and keep Pickett or Rudolph running the show?
If so, Pickens remains in purgatory with a boom/bust descriptor in tow. However, if the Steelers makes a trade/sign a free agent/draft a capable quarterback, there is still a chance of raising the level of consistency. That would be the recipe for excitement in fantasy. Reliability is key in the players you roster, especially when it comes to dynasty. This is the same reason a large sect of managers prefer players with a proven track record in the league over rookies. Not everyone is going to be a Marvin Mims, but not everyone is going to be Puka Nacua, either.
RELATED: Marvin Harrison Jr 2024 Dynasty Rookie Profile
A Few Sandwiches Short
There’s a certain amount crazy that is typical of many NFL wide receivers. The Hoover, AL native is no different. He has a love (nay, a need) for the spotlight ever since playing running back in high school. That need carried through college and into the professional level.
Pickens has been dinged relentlessly for half-hearted play when not directly involved; missing blocks or not blocking at all or not going full-speed when the game is not going his way. Sideline blowups and disinterest in teammates’ touchdowns. Those things don’t typically carry over into fantasy football. That does not change the fact that some NFL coaches will limit playing time to get players on their page.
Luckily, Mike Tomlin has seen his fair share of crazy and is not one of those coaches. His next quarterback could be, though. Pickens has to put the work in on his on-field attitude, which begets a signal-caller’s trust and his consistency and numbers will take another step. Everyone has seen what he is capable of… he has all the tools. To roster him comfortably in fantasy football, managers must know what they are getting.
What Are We Doing With George Pickens In Dynasty?
You look at two seasons and see 115 catches for 1,941 yards. 60/1,000 every year sounds very amicable, but unfortunately fantasy stats are calculated on a per-week basis. If bunches of those yards only come in a third of the contests, you cannot count on him to be an integral part of your lineup. Thankfully, Pickens is just 23 years old in 2024!
The nephew of NFL-great Carl Pickens has to develop more than just the go routes, which he led the league in during 2022. His 22.6 air yards/reception signified more of the same in 2023. He has the all the ability necessary for crosses and curls, which would equate to more targets. Until he does that, Pickens will be nothing but a bye week or matchup-based occasional plug and play.
VERDICT: Until George Pickens expands his game, he is best left to someone else on a traditional dynasty superflex option. A step further, if you roster him currently he becomes a sell if Pittsburgh stands pat at QB. You can expect mid-first 2025 capital or use him alongside a draft pick to tier up to a more consistent wide receiver.
***In Best Ball formats, Pickens is a smash buy target. It is the best way to utilize an immense talent capable of being a game breaker for years to come. I would spend a mid-round first in 2024 over a bevy of incoming receivers after the usual suspects go top-6.
Let’s Hear It From Other Analysts!
“We often tag players “Boom or Bust” in Fantasy Football who have the upside to have a huge scoring week, but also have lower scoring floors. One of the first players that comes to mind might be George Pickens. Four weeks over 20 Fantasy Points paired with seven weeks under eight Fantasy Points speaks that. Pittsburgh has used Pickens as a big play option in back-to-back seasons, evident by him ranking top 10 in deep targets along with top 20 in both average depth of target and air yards. Finishing 16th in receiving yards with 1,140 in 2023 is a step in the right direction. Kenny Pickett’s progression, or lack of it, will be important for 2024. 106 targets was a good step forward for Pickens, and if his targets per game continue growing it will give him more opportunities to make big plays.” – Nick Skrip, NFL Content Lead – Fantrax
Others Had This To Say
“I’m somewhat bearish on George Pickens heading into the 2024 season, but not as pessimistic as those who despise Arthur Smith as much as I do. Simply put, Pickens is incredibly talented and has improved substantially since his rookie season. Matt Canada could not have run a less imaginative or more predictable offense during his tenure. While Smith’s presence gives me pause, he will deploy his receivers on a variety of routes that complement one another and stem off the running game. This includes in-breaking routes where Pickens’ athleticism can shine and were nearly completely absent during his first two seasons. The bottom line is Pickens is trending so poorly that it feels like an overcorrection. Buy low where the opportunity presents itself.” – Bo McBrayer, Featured Writer – FantasyPros
“George Pickens is a definite buy for me. You can see the flashes of the elite play on the field. The down the field playmaker, the body control, the elite catch radius. All he needs is a QB to get him the ball consistently and he’ll be a top twelve dynasty wide receiver. I’d (be willing to) give up a 1.08 and lower in rookie drafts. I prefer him over players like Deebo Samuel, Jayden Reed, Terry McLaurin, Stefon Diggs, Josh Jacobs, Isaiah Pacheco, and Kyle Pitts.” – Stephen Chalmers, analyst at Yards Per Fantasy and RPO Football
…and
“If i told you a player had 52 for 801/4 as a rookie, you would be interested in buying. Then, I told you he had 63 catches for 1,140 yards and 5 touchdowns in Year 2 (and) did all of this on a bad offense with bad offensive coaching and bad QB play. Sounds like a buy, right? But, pump the breaks on George Pickens because Arthur Smith is not known for using top playmakers. Love Pickens, but he is probably a hold for sellers. Buyers are not falling over themselves to buy into Smith’s offense with big questions at QB.
(You may) see a discount and buy, but you get it home and get it out the box and it says “Arthur Smith offensive coordinator” on the box. Might have buyers remorse. I doubt Pickett Or Rudolph are starting for the Steelers Week 1. This could be a spot for a JJ McCarthy, Bo Nix, or Michael Penix in the draft. This could (also) be a spot for Justin Fields or Russell Wilson. If there is positive news, that is where you might be able to sell. I love Pickens, but the chances of him putting Smith in a headlock are higher than him being a consistent option in this offense. Don’t give him away. I am looking for a late 1st (sf rookie) and a future 2nd or an early 3rd this year.” – Dave Heilman, SGPN Senior Dynasty Analyst
Have a suggestion of a player to feature in “What Are We Doing with…”? Email Sam Schneider at samwiseYPF@gmail.com
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