Here. We. Go. This is the moment Patriots fans were praying for since Tom Brady made his decision to leave New England after 20 incredible years. Moreover, this is the moment fans that loathe the Patriots and their success were dreading. On Sunday, Cam Newton signed a one-year pact with the New England Patriots. Newton’s deal is “incentive-laden,” and can be worth up to $7.5 million dollars, per Adam Schefter. While we haven’t seen Newton in a while, it was just five years ago that he was the NFL Most Valuable Player and led the Carolina Panthers to a Super Bowl appearance. Below, we break down Newton’s landing spot and how it affects each of the fantasy football relevant players in New England for 2020.
How Does This Signing Impact Cam Newton’s Fantasy Football Relevance?
Ranking Pre-Landing Spot: QB 40
Ranking Post-Landing Spot: QB 14
This ranking will likely be higher than a good number of analysts will have on Newton, but he had no better landing spot than New England. In New England, Newton has a myriad of proven weapons (Julian Edelman, James White, Mohammed Sanu), as well as talented, yet unproven, players (N’Keal Harry, Devin Asiasi, Dalton Keene). While everyone is lamenting Newton’s injury history, the last time we saw Newton healthy in 2018, he finished as the QB 12 in just 14 games! Additionally, during that year, Newton posted the best accuracy numbers of his career at 67.9%.
During that season, where Cam Newton missed two games and still managed to finish as a QB1, can you tell me who received the most targets on that Panthers offense? If you guessed Christian McCaffrey, you would be correct! McCaffrey was targeted 125 times by Newton in 2018. The closest actual wide receiver on that squad was a rookie D.J. Moore, with 82. McCaffrey is arguably the most talented receiving back in the NFL.
However, in New England, Newton receives a proven top receiving target in Edelman, upside options in Harry, Asiasi, and Keene, and an underappreciated but talented receiving back in James White. Newton flies up the board to my QB 14 and becomes of my later-round targets at the position in 1QB leagues.
Sony Michel, RB
Pre-Newton Ranking: RB 34 Post-Newton Ranking: RB 36
Probably the only player negatively affected by Newton entering the offense, Sony Michel was looking at a consistent 18-20 rushes a game while Jarrett Stidham at the helm in New England. However, with Newton arriving, the Patriots are likely to move from the Run-First offense originally planned to a more balanced offense. Between this and Newton’s affinity for targeting running backs out of the backfield, Michel and his 19 career receptions in his 29 career games will be on the field less than expected. Michel’s expected efficiency should increase, but Newton’s arrival will take considerable work away from the back. With fewer carries for the expected committee, Michel’s upside cools without injury to James White and/or Damien Harris.
James White, RB
Pre-Newton Ranking: RB 37 Post-Newton Ranking: RB 30
If you’re confused about moving James White up seven spots, did you see that 2018 workload for Christian McCaffrey? While White is no McCaffrey, he is a proven weapon out of the backfield. Since 2016, he has commanded at least 72 targets per season, and as high as 123 targets in 2018. With Newton at the helm, 100 targets and 70 carries is not out of the realm of possibilities for White. If he hits these numbers, he is guaranteed to outperform his current ADP of RB 33.
Julian Edelman, WR
Pre-Newton Ranking: WR 34 Post-Newton Ranking: WR 22
Before I proceed, take a guess where Julian Edelman finished last season in PPR settings. If I told you he finished as WR 7, would that shock you? I definitely was, but when you look at his statistics, it makes complete sense. In his age 33 season, Edelman was a target-hog, averaging almost 10 targets per game. He finished with a line of 100 receptions for 1,117 yards and six touchdowns. However, with Brady leaving, many analysts dropped Edelman to the depths of their rankings (including myself). However, with Newton coming to New England, Edelman becomes an intriguing mid-round option. He is a no-brainer at his current ADP of WR 33 and should return WR2 numbers at a minimum.
N’Keal Harry, WR
Pre-Newton Ranking: WR 54 Post-Newton Ranking: WR 45
Before Newton arrived, I was not going to touch Harry with a ten-foot pole. Harry had a lackluster rookie season with arguably the greatest quarterback of all time, only collecting 12 receptions for 105 yards and two touchdowns. With Stidham coming in to replace Brady, he had no appeal. However, with Newton at the helm, Harry has much more upside than before. A tantalizing prospect at 6-2, 228 pounds, and a 38.5 vertical, Harry possesses the traits to take a step forward with Newton leading the way. His upside and raw talent are well worth the current risk at WR 55.
Devin Asiasi, Dalton Keene, TE
Pre-Newton Ranking: TE 38, 39
Post-Newton Ranking: TE 30, 31
I’ll be honest, it’s not that I’m not interested in the Patriots TE pair, it’s determining which TE I’m more interested in. Both rookies were drafted to fill the hole left by Rob Gronkowski. The Patriots invested third round picks in both TEs, so it is difficult to determine which will be given the first chance to claim their stake as the TE to trust. With Newton’s addition, I’m not looking to draft either, but I will be watching closely to see if either becomes the dominant TE, like Mark Andrews did in Baltimore last season.
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