Week 14 DraftKings DFS Values

Week 14 Draftkings DFS Values

I find it to be a unique time of the season in DFS and re-draft formats. Leveraging the idea that there’s now “enough” data available through thirteen weeks, along with the use of analytical fundamentals applicable on a macro scale, can together provide a substantial edge for anyone with some time on their hands. That is why for my first article here at YPF, I decided to blend the concepts that shape my understanding of the game with detailed context of a player’s environment heading  into Week 14 to identify valuable matchups you can consider before the Sunday/Monday slate.

Dak Prescott (vs WFT) | $6,700

CeeDee Lamb | $7,200

Amari Cooper | $5,900

Michael Gallup | $5,500

Cedrick Wilson Jr. | $3,500

​A healthy offensive line and set of pass catchers is nothing short of an early Christmas gift for QB Dak Prescott. The signal caller has a -0.145 EPA/play since week 11, worst in the NFL among 22 qualifiers (via rbsdm.com/stats). Nonetheless, Prescott heads into Washington on Sunday to face a defense allowing 24 DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks (most in NFL). Stable metrics within Dallas’ offense and a favorable matchup make for an array of DFS stacks to consider this week.The Cowboys average 28.6 seconds/play in neutral situations, ranking as the league’s second fastest paced offense according to Football Outsiders. Matching up against a defense that allows the NFL’s second-highest neutral pass rate (via Underdog Fantasy’s Hayden Winks) gives us an indication for a solid floor of passing volume in this NFC East showdown.

To add some “quality” to quantity, Washington allows a league high 167.1 air yards and 2.17 passing touchdowns per game to opposing offenses (via Pro Football Reference). ​

According to Pro Football Focus, Amari Cooper’s 31.6% slot usage and 12.8 average depth of target has mirrored target leader CeeDee Lamb through Dallas’ first twelve games (33.4%, 12.0, respectively). However, Cooper carries a 32.3 red zone target rate, a key area where he differentiates himself from Lamb (20.0%). For some, the decision of stacking one of those two alongside Prescott could be considered glorified coinflip. But I believe that either of the pass catchers are worthy of being stacked or qualify as value plays on their own, given their DraftKings prices and matchup this week at Washington.

Jaguars Wide Receivers (vs TEN):

Marvin Jones Jr. | $4,500

Laviska Shenault Jr. | $4,300

Laquon Treadwell | $3,400

However, like the prices and matchups amongst the Dallas receivers, Jacksonville has some pass catchers that are too hard to overlook, given those same variables. The Jaguars are set to face a Titans defense that allow the most yards (198.3) and second most DraftKings points per game (43.9) to wide receivers this season (via Pro Football Reference). Opposing offenses pass at a 59.0% rate in neutral situations against Tennessee, third highest in the NFL.

These elements of the Titans defense not only give us an idea of the potential volume and production Jacksonville receivers could see in Nashville this Sunday, but it also acts as a solid hedge to Tennessee being favored by 8 points (at the time of thisbeing written). Even considering the Titans’ run heaviness and quality of an offense the Jaguars have put out there. Teams are passing the ball at a high clip in neutral situations against the Titans, and wide receivers are seeing plenty of opportunities to go along with it. If the 8-point spread does come into fruition, it gives us another reason to believe there will be plenty of opportunities to go around in garbage time action. When considering a cheap lineup fill, one of those Jaguars pass catchers could fill the role because of their matchup and potential game scripts this week, depending on your risk tolerance.

Evan Engram (vs LAC) | $3,500

​We can all agree that Evan Engram has been a disappointment in both performance and production during his tenure with the Giants. At the same time, it can also be true that he can provide value in specific matchups given that DraftKings price. Week 14 appears to be one of those instances. According to Pro Football Reference, the Los Angeles Chargers have allowed the most touchdowns (10) and fourth most DraftKings points per game (16.3) to tight ends among teams that have played twelve games through week 13.

As it relates to the current state of the Giants’ roster, their ability to field pass catchers is in serious jeopardy this coming Sunday.At the time of this being written, Kadarius Toney is officially out with an oblique injury, and Golladay/Shepard appear to be unclear with their official status, although there have been reports of Shepard likely being active. Nonetheless, the present uncertainty narrows a generally even distributed team target share, providing hope for an uptick in opportunities. Pro Football Focus ranks the Giants as having an NFL worst 49.5 pass blocking grade, while the Chargers’ defense carries a top ten pressure grade (77.4). Considering the matchup advantage for Los Angeles in the trenches, as well as being a 9-pointfavorite on DraftKings, the Giants may find themselves trailing and want to mitigate the risk from their pass protection with quick passes underneath. Evan Engram’s slot target rate of 74.5% (via Pro Football Focus) makes him a viable candidate to accommodate this defensive matchup for the Giants. Toney officially out means at the very least, Engram will compete for short game opportunities with the questionable Sterling Shepard and Saquon Barkley, who is currently nursing an ankle injury. For a position like tight end that’s skewed in terms of production for those at the top, weekly matchups and roster situations can truly differentiate the value plays from most of the pack. Engram going at $3,500 the environment he finds himself in this week is a serious option to consider if you’re looking for value at the position.

Player	Target Share	aDOT (Yards)
Evan Engram	11.8%	5.2
Kenny Golladay	11.8%	14.0
Kadarius Toney	11.3%	7.0
Sterling Shepard	10.8%	7.4
Darius Slayton	10.8%	13.2
*Out or Questionable vs LAC* | Data via PFF |

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Austin Hooper (vs BAL) | $3,400 | DK TE #21

​There needs to be some significant factors that make up for both the run heaviness that Cleveland and Baltimore both exhibit, as well as questionable quarterback performance to even consider a Browns pass catcher up to this point in the season. Austin Hooper appears to be an exception this week. The Ravens allow 9.1 targets per game (most in the NFL) and third highest DraftKings points per game (16.8) to tight ends this season, according to Pro Football Reference. This favorable matchup against Baltimore appears to be no fluke either, based on data from week 12 when both of these AFC North squads faced off.

Austin Hooper 2021 Splits (via PFF)
	Pass Play Snaps	Routes	Slot/Wide Snaps
Week 12 (@ BAL)	37	28	21
Weeks 1-11	22.6	18.1	8.4

With fellow tight ends David Njoku and Harrison Bryant both out this week against Baltimore, Hooper seeing an increase in usage appears to be a given. This usage has the potential to be deceiving, given the run and 13 personnel (3 TE, 1 WR) heaviness in Cleveland’s offense. We can see that in the first matchup against Baltimore, Hooper found himself on the field and involved in the pass game more frequently than the entire 2021 season before. Tight ends had 11 of the team’s 32 targets in week 12 (34.4% target share). With Njoku and Bryant both not suited up for this week 14 rematch, and Cleveland proven to have used Baltimore’s liability against tight ends to their advantage in week 12, Hooper has an intriguing ceiling for production.

Given the fact that Austin Hooper already has Cleveland’s second highest red zone target rate (31%), as well as the position making up 66.7% of the team’s end zone targets this season, the stars are aligning for him to dominate in all areas of usage and production in week 14. Hooper’s matchup against the Ravens makes him more than worthy of consideration if you’re looking to stream one of the lower priced tight ends DraftKings.

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