DraftKings Week 1 Recap
There’s a lot of fantasy advice out there. It’s easy to tout any player, especially in a format like daily fantasy, when every reason not to play a guy is just a reason he’ll be low-owned. In this column every week, I’ll attempt to tackle the most important part of giving advice: accountability. I’ll recap my personal Week 1 DraftKings cash lineup and Main Slate Breakdown touts and try to evaluate what was bad process, what was bad luck, and what we can with us to Week 2.
Recap: Week 1 Draftkings Main Slate Breakdown
Cash Lineup Review
The Process
Lamar Jackson was a smash insertion, as were Christian McCaffrey and Antonio Gibson. Josh Jacobs was a near-smash, but I was a bit weary playing opposing RBs. Instead, I went with an Austin Ekeler-Chargers defense stack. I threw in Ian Thomas at TE to maximize the money I had at WR. Hunter Renfrow and Kendrick Bourne were my first two choices, which left me enough money to pay for Marquise Brown. The other two players in consideration were Jamison Crowder and Allen Lazard.
Later on, I decided I was uneasy about the number of targets available in Carolina, so decided i wanted to upgrade to Hayden Hurst. Saving $600 on defense by dropping to the WAS Football Team was the easy choice, and I decided I was okay with Jacobs and McCaffrey in the same lineup.
Miles Sanders’ surprise inactive announcement had people jumping at Boston Scott, but I had two concerns. 1) The Eagles like Corey Clement, who wasn’t available when Scott got his run as a feature back. 2) The mismatch between the WAS defensive front and PHI offensive line had me worried. I stayed the course.
The Good
Lamar picked up where he ended 2019 and Marquise Brown took his first steps on the road to the 2020 breakout. Josh Jacobs smashed thanks to 3 touchdowns, but he also got 8.6 points in the passing game, which will be huge for his floor moving forward. The WAS defense delivered, sacking Carson Wentz 8 times and creating 3 turnovers. Christian McCaffrey finished just 4 yards short of the 100+ yard bonus (and 3x value), but delivered the safe performance I was looking for.
The Bad
Peyton Barber, not Antonio Gibson, was the lead dog in Washington, despite Gibson being the more efficient runner (9 attempts for 36 yards compared to 17 for 29). That gives reason for optimism, but it doesn’t make Gibson’s 6.4 points feel any better.
In Las Vegas, Hunter Renfrow actually garnered the 2nd-highest number of targets among Raiders WRs. Unfortunately, with 10 targets going to RBs and 9 to TEs, that number was 2. It appears that Josh Jacobs may be the only reliable fantasy play in this offense in the early season.
The Heartbreaking
Football is a game of seconds and inches. Sometimes everything can go right, but just be a split second off. Nothing better encapsulates that then being an on-time Jimmy Garoppolo pass away from a Kendrick Bourne TD with just seconds left in the last game of the slate.
Like the Raiders, the 49ers threw very few targets to their wideouts: only 11/32. Still, Bourne got 5 targets, which normally is what you want from a $5k player, and he got himself open when it counted. Jimmy makes that throw, and I’m writing this article a much happier man.
GPP Lineup Review
Here I’ll look at my best-performing tournament lineup and see what went right
One of my better GPP performances, this lineup paid 20x entry (aka, $20 in the First Down). Seattle finally #LetRussCook, as he put up a huge opening performance in a shootout with Atlanta. Hurst hurt me here too, as I used him and Todd Gurley as a game-stack with Russ and DK Metcalf.
The Davante Adams – Adam Thielen stack I mentioned in my Breakdown was the money-maker here, as they combined for 78.6 points. Adams was fairly high-owned at 20%, but Thielen was the difference here at well under 10%.
Breakdown Review
Quarterbacks
I said four QBs would make up my core
- Lamar Jackson – $8,100 – 27.5 points – 3.40 value
- Cam Newton – $6,100 – 25.7 points – 4.21 value
- Jimmy Garoppolo – $5,800 – 19.26 points – 3.32 value
- Tyrod Taylor – $5,600 – 9.02 points – 1.61 value
3/4 hitting 3x value isn’t bad, but woof on Taylor. The Chargers offense was poor in what should have been a good matchup. Taylor was inefficient through the air, throwing it 30 times for 208 yards. His crashed through his rushing ‘floor’ as well, with just 7 yards on the ground.
Seven quarterbacks scored 25 points in Week 1. In order: Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, Matt Ryan, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Cam Newton. Wilson and Newton are off the Main Slate in Week 2. Four of the other five are at least $6,600. The fifth? Kyler Murray, who returns home after leading an impressive victory against last year’s #2 ranked pass defense in DVOA, gets a $300 discount to $6,100.
Running Backs
I said to fire up your McCaffrey shares. While he didn’t turn in the slate-breaking performance 2019 made us hopeful of, he largely delivered. The key moving forward is what to think about his role in the passing game. McCaffrey received just 4 targets, tied for his second-lowest in a game since the start of 2019. On the one hand, we can find optimism in the fact that he produced about his expectations without a large passing game role, meaning his ceiling will be higher moving forward. On the other hand, if this the new norm, his price will have to come down quite a bit to make it worth rostering him.
Another player lacking in targets was Austin Ekeler. The Chargers’ ground-and-pound approach sent just one pass in Ekeler’s direction. Perhaps more disconcerting; rookie Joshua Kelly got 12 carries and a goal-line touchdown. We had hopes of Ekeler dominating touches as he did the first four weeks of 2019, so this split is worrisome. Ekeler will need to re-establish himself in the passing game to be a viable option.
One spot I was very wrong was Mark Ingram’s workload being safe from JK Dobbins. While Ingram did out-carry Dobbins 10-7, Dobbins got the two touchdowns. The Ravens ground game as a whole was ineffectual, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. They get a Texans defense that was shredded on the ground by Clyde Edwards Helaire next week, so even if we can’t rely on either back in cash, there will be upside.
One spot I was not wrong was Raheem Mostert. The SF back got 15 carries, leading Tevin Coleman’s 4 and Jerrick McKinnon’s 3. He also added 4 receptions for 95 yards – including a 76-yard touchdown – to return excellent value.
Another safe workload is in Las Vegas, where Josh Jacobs got 25 carries and 4 targets and was the big winner of the day, leading the position with 35.9 points. His only competition for touches was Devontae Booker, who got 4 carries and 3 targets.
Wide Receivers
I already touched on the Adams-Thielen opposing-WR stack working out. Those two finished as the WR1 and WR3 on the slate. The other stack I liked, Michael Thomas and Chris Godwin, did not work out. The billing of two HOF QBs matching up in New Orleans did not live up to hype, as both Tom Brady and Drew Brees were unable to get into grooves in the passing games.
Another spot I was wrong was the Atlanta Falcons passing game. Seattle got excellent corner play in 2019 from Shaq Griffin and Quinton Dunbar, and was terrible defending tight ends. Most people, including myself, saw Hayden Hurst as the safe pick for this game. Instead, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Russell Gage finished as the WRs 6, 2, and 8, respectively. We probably can’t anticipate another 12 targets, but if Gage is a legitimate part of this offense, he’s a steal at $4,800 in Week 2.
My biggest mistake of the week was probably locking in on my Bourne/Renfrow pairing at WR too early. Jamison Crowder continued his good rapport with Sam Darnold, hauling in 7 of 13 targets. I was not alone in this mistake, as he went under 4% owned in the MASSIVE $25 Double-Up. The 49ers aren’t a great matchup in Week 2, but his price only jumped $200 to $5,400. This should be a consistent source of volume all season.
The last offense I want to mention is the Packers. Davante Adams is an absolute stud and playable at any price point in any matchup. The secondary options, though, stepped up as well. Allen Lazard (who I highlighted) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling each hauled in four passes and a touchdown. Scantling had some costly drops, but if those two guys can continue to produce, they should present value. The Packers get a weak Lions secondary in Week 2, and both guys are reasonably priced.
Tight Ends
It was a rough week at TE, both for me and the DraftKings community. Five players had double-digit ownership in the $25 MASSIVE Double-Up, and T.J. Hockensen was the only to return value. Players on my radar, George Kittle, Chris Herndon, and Hayden Hurst, all failed to reach 10 points (though Kittle was hurt and wasn’t able to finish the game), as did Jack Doyle. My last name, Zach Ertz, was overshadowed by slate-breaker Dallas Goedert, who racked up 27 points to Ertz’s 10.8. If Kittle is unable to go next Sunday, former fantasy superstar Jordan Reed could be in for a big day.
Two players I’ll be keeping an eye on are Mark Andrews and Logan Thomas. Andrews’ rapport with Lamar Jackson is unmatched, and should be a safe source of targets all year. Thomas actually led the WAS Football Team in targets with 8. He got a price boost to $3,600, but against an Arizona defense we’ve historically targeted with TEs, he’ll be in play.
