We Have Swift Off: Week 7 Rookie Stock Update
Terrible pun? Yes, probably. Am I sorry? Not even a little!
With so much volatility, it’s difficult to predict when some of the rookies are going to have big weeks. We get a four-touchdown game from a rookie receiver one week, we get a two-touchdown game from a rookie running back the next. A rookie running back that had struggled to even get on the field in previous weeks. And then we get a rookie tight end who finally makes his debut and seems to be a go-to guy for his quarterback.
What I look to do in this series therefore, is look at the opportunities. How much are they getting on the field, who is getting the targets, who is getting the carries, who is waiting patiently by the phone and watching redzone on Sunday night.
As noted in my introduction to this series, each week I’m going to do a stock take on the rookies, review how they’re progressing and speculate on their outlook for the rest of the season.
Here is the Week 7 rookie stock update.
Starters
Quarterback
- Joe Burrow
- Justin Herbert
A much better performance than last week, Joe Burrow threw for 313 yards on 39 pass attempts and a completion rate of 64-percent. That’s the fourth time in his first six games with over 300 yards passing and helps prop up his floor in a game where despite being three touchdowns ahead early, Burrow didn’t throw for a touchdown all game. Talking of a floor-propper, he did rush for a touchdown on a quarterback-sneak that helped him get close to the QB1 range and prevent too much disappointment and frustration for fantasy managers who started him.
One thing to watch with Burrow is his rushing. I noted early in the season that his rushing ability was a difference maker that could make up for difficult passing games but here are his rushing numbers from the last four games:
- 1 carry for -1 yards
- 4 carries for 11 yards
- 3 carries for 10 yards
- 3 carries for 2 yards
That’s not exactly Lamar Jackson. 12 of his 26 carries this year have been scrambles and 8 of those came in the first two games. As he has settled in to the NFL life and become more comfortable in the pocket, Burrow has worried less about getting out of there on the ground. We’ve seen he has the ability to run when needed but it doesn’t look like there’s any desire to get him doing it with any kind of regularity.
Justin Herbert got a well-earned rest in week 6. Mr Minshew and his famous moustache are coming to town in week 7.
Running Back
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire
- Jonathan Taylor
- Antonio Gibson
- Joshua Kelley
- D’Andre Swift
- JK Dobbins
- James Robinson
- Cam Akers
- Zack Moss
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | ||
| Snaps | 49 (67-percent) | Last Week: 43 (60-percent) |
| Carries | 26 (57-percent) | Last Week: 10 (50-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 3 (38-percent) | Last week: 1 (25-percent of team total) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 1 (100-percent) | Last week: 1 (50-percent of team total) |
| Targets | 4 (15-percent) | Last week: 8 (19-percent of team total) |
What a game for CEH. In the week where they make headlines by signing Le’Veon Bell to compete for touches, CEH came out firing. He put up his best total so far in the NFL with 169 total yards on 26 carries and 4 catches. This is what he’s capable of and this is what we wanted to see.
His volume is very much team-volume driven as the Chiefs o-line dominated the Bills front seven, and you can see that from his 57-percent carry share. 26 carries sounds like a bellcow load but keep an eye on that percentage. Darrel Williams and Darwin Thompson got themselves some carries too, including a Darrel Williams touchdown. For the second week in a row, we saw a CEH touchdown chalked off with a penalty, it’s coming folks.
The best case scenario for CEH is that Bell is coming in to take the Williams/Thompson touches and CEH can keep his current role. Andy Reid is indicating that he doesn’t have any desire to take work away from his little guy but if Bell can pop then we need to be prepared for him taking some of it, even if it’s not a large portion.
| Jonathan Taylor | ||
| Snaps | 37 (59-percent) | Last Week: 31 (55-percent) |
| Carries | 12 (80-percent) | Last Week: 12 (67-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 1 (100-percent) | Last Week: 1 (50-percent of team total) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 0 (team total = 0) | Last Week: 1 (100-percent of team total) |
| Targets | 4 (9-percent) | Last Week: 3 (9-percent of team total) |
The good news from week 6 is that Jordan Wilkins only played four snaps. Hines still had his role but the carries were Taylor’s. The not so good news is that gamescript got the Colts throwing 75-percent of the time, so despite taking 80-percent of the team’s carries, that was still only a total of 12.
More good news, Taylor was either carrying the ball or being targeted by Rivers on six of the first seven offensive plays of the game. There was an intent to utilise him early. Ready for the not-so-good news again? They were down three touchdowns shortly afterwards. Now I’m not saying this was due to Taylor’s usage but they’re not going to keep heavily leaning on him if they aren’t putting points on the board, they’re going to change their game plan.
I’ve spoken before how we got over-excited about Taylor’s opportunity when Marlon Mack went down in week one, and we’ve been waiting for him to smash since then. I decided to look back at Marlon Mack’s usage from 2019 and compare how that looks to Taylor’s start to 2020. One caveat here, based on the unpredictable nature of Mack’s injury in week one, I’ve removed Taylor’s week one from this comparison:
Pretty similar isn’t it? Taylor has got a similar level of playing time and touches to what Marlon Mack did in 2019. So should we be expecting this to increase for Taylor or is this what we should expect to see in Indy?
For reference, Mack produced four RB1 performances in 2019 (29-percent of his games), five RB2 performances (36-percent) and three RB3 performances (21-percent). So far this year (excluding week one), Taylor has two RB1 performances (40-percent), two RB2 performances (40-percent) and one RB3 performance (20-percent).
Four targets is his biggest total since week one, that’s great news to go with his 100 all purpose yards, and the catches is a role that Mack didn’t really get last year. With it now being two games in a row of almost no Jordan Wilkins, it could be that Taylor is starting to lock up this backfield, at least on the ground. Touchdowns are starting to look like a concern though, with very little opportunity to run in the red zone and the team choosing to scheme up Trey Burton on a wildcat rushing score rather than run with Taylor. Indy have a bye in week 7 which is a great opportunity to refine the gameplan for the rookie ahead of a strong schedule.
| Antonio Gibson | ||
| Snaps | 27 (37-percent) | Last Week: 30 (56-percent of team total) |
| Carries | 9 (38-percent) | Last Week: 11 (79-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 0 | Last Week: 1 (50-percent of team total) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 0 (team total = 0) | Last Week: 1 (50-percent of team total) |
| Targets | 5 (12-percent) | Last Week: 5 (17-percent of team total) |
We’re seeing a concerning trend for Antonio Gibson in recent weeks. His 9 carries in week 6 is down from 11 in week 5 and that represents a reduction from 79-percent to 38-percent of the carries. That’s not a great sign. J.D. McKissic meanwhile continues to get over 50-percent of snaps and this week put 8 carries on his ledger. McKissic is the passing-downs back and unfortunately for Gibson, Washington find themselves in that position more often than not. Gibson is getting some opportunity and he looks pretty good with it, with 5 targets for three straight weeks now.
He’s needed a touchdown to make him a worthwhile fantasy starter and with Washington not really running the ball at that end of the field (one carry inside the 20 in week 6, nothing inside the 10) it’s going to make it very difficult for Gibson to return value until his role increases. It’s the J.D. McKissic show for now and we need to see some solid signs of role change before we can trust Gibson. Like many rookie running backs, his role could increase towards the end of the year so if you somehow have a spare bench spot then now would be the time to get him at his cheapest.
| Joshua Kelley | ||
| Snaps | BYE | Last Week: 25 (35-percent of team total) |
| Carries | BYE | Last Week: 11 (34-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | BYE | Last Week: 1 (100-percent of team total) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | BYE | Last Week: 1 (100-percent of team total) |
| Targets | BYE | Last Week: 1 (3-percent of team total) |
I was prepared to drop him ahead of the bye if I needed the roster spot and in one league, I didn’t need to. A bye week in week 6 gives us nothing to go on but it does give LA time to work out what the non-Ekeler backfield is going to look like until his return. Keep an eye on usage in week 7 to see if anything has changed.
| D’Andre Swift | ||
| Snaps | 29 (38-percent) | Last Week: BYE |
| Carries | 14 (36-percent) | Last Week: BYE |
| Redzone carries | 4 (50-percent) | Last Week: BYE |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 4 (80-percent) | Last Week: BYE |
| Targets | 4 (13-percent) | Last Week: BYE |
Well, well, well. Let me take you back to week 3 when Swift got 6 snaps, 0 carries and 2 targets. Fast forward to week 6 with a bye to have figured some things out, and Swift carries the ball 14 times for 116 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 4 targets added for good measure. Adrian Peterson is still a thing in this offense though, carrying the ball one more time than Swift on only two less snaps. Swift has not made himself the lead back yet but he took the majority of the work inside the 10 and those touchdowns might just be putting him to the front of the queue. It’s noteworthy that Kerryon Johnson was a complete non-factor so it’s the split with AP that we need to watch.
Another note to be aware of. It may look like Swift was infinitely more productive than AP (almost three times the yards on a similar number of carries) but 54 of Swift’s yards came on one big play. I’m not going to frustrate everyone with ‘if you remove x then y’ but it’s important to note that the majority of Swift’s carries came at a lower efficiency than the box score otherwise indicates. An efficiency that was still better than AP by the way.
| JK Dobbins | ||
| Snaps | 30 (41-percent) | Last Week: 18 (29-percent of team total) |
| Carries | 9 (24-percent) | Last Week: 1 (4-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 0 | Last Week: 0 |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 0 | Last Week: 0 |
| Targets | 4 (15-percent) | Last Week: 3 (8-percent of team total) |
Here’s the test. It’s been clear that Dobbins isn’t separating himself as a lead back in this backfield but then that’s not what Baltimore really do. And then Ingram got injured in the first half and the opportunity presented itself. So how did he do? Ask Gus Edwards. Dobbins did get a career-high 9 carries but Edwards got more, and Edwards got the red zone opportunities. Dobbins also equalled his target high with 4 but he didn’t do much with them, hauling in 2 catches for 1 yard. Uninspiring. They have a bye in week 7 so we’ll hear stories of the magical bye week where rookies come out of the other side with an expanded role. Ingram should be ready after the bye, this is going to be a split and unless Dobbins breaks off a big play, you aren’t going to be happy you started him.
| James Robinson | ||
| Snaps | 44 (69-percent) | Last Week: 43 (57-percent of team total) |
| Carries | 12 (75-percent) | Last Week: 13 (65-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 4 (67-percent) | Last Week: 2 (50-percent of team total) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 1 (50-percent) | Last Week: 0 |
| Targets | 4 (9-percent) | Last Week: 7 (14-percent of team total) |
He’s the lead back in Jacksonville, that much is clear. He gets most if not all of the running back carries (all of them in this game), and he gets a healthy snap count. But volume and efficiency are a problem. Jacksonville are in negative gamescripts time and time again, and that’s not going to change. Which means that they need to throw more and run less. Which means that, despite having 75-percent of the carries, this only amounts to 12 carries. Then comes the efficiency, with 2.4 yards per carry enough to get Robinson to a mighty 29 yards.
His fantasy day was saved with a receiving touchdown but he’ll need more than 4 targets per week to make up for the lack of rushing production. Either the Jaguars need to stay in games for longer or Robinson is going to be difficult to trust. Detroit looked like a great matchup on paper so this doesn’t bode well.
Week 6 One-to-Watch: Cam Akers
| Cam Akers | ||
| Snaps | 1 (2-percent) | Last Week: 13 (19-percent) |
| Carries | 0 | Last Week: 9 (26-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 0 | Last Week: 0 |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 0 | Last Week: 0 |
| Targets | 0 | Last Week: 0 |
Last week I highlighted Cam Akers as one-to-watch so we could keep an eye on his usage. He’s been injured and last week Sean McVay told us that Akers was going to be used more this week. Well, it turns out Sean McVay was doing his best Bruce Arians impression and it was complete rubbish. One snap. That’s all she wrote for Akers in week 6, one single solitary snap. Gamescript? Hot hand? Sean McVay is a liar? Whatever the reason, this stunk for Akers owners. He was clearly third man up and not part of the gameplan, so with this being 2020 I’m assuming he leads the league in carries next week…
| Zack Moss | ||
| Snaps | 13 (25-percent) | Last Week: INJURY |
| Carries | 5 (22-percent) | Last Week: INJURY |
| Redzone carries | 0 (team total = 0) | Last Week: INJURY |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 0 (team total = 0) | Last Week: INJURY |
| Targets | 0 | Last Week: INJURY |
Moss has seemed close to playing for the past couple of weeks and this week he got his opportunity to return to action. It was very much a small part for him and that could have been a plan to ease him back in with only 13 snaps. 5 carries for 10 yards is nothing to get excited about but we’ll give him a mulligan for this week. Keep a close eye on him next week to see if, with improved fitness, he gets more of a role or whether Singletary has cemented himself as the guy in Moss’ recent absence.
Wide Receiver
- Jerry Jeudy
- CeeDee Lamb
- Laviska Shenault
- Brandon Aiyuk
- Justin Jefferson
- Tee Higgins
- Henry Ruggs
- Chase Claypool
With injuries continuing to impact the team around him, Jeudy’s snap count continues to stay steady in the mid/high 40s. He got another 5 targets this week, good enough for 21-percent of his team’s target share in a game where the Broncos only passed on 39-percent of their plays. This was a slow, run-heavy game and not much going for the pass-catchers. Tim Patrick has established himself as the alpha receiver in Sutton’s absence so Jeudy will be hoping to see that draw coverage away from him in future games. The concern for Jeudy, his 40-percent catch rate this week isn’t that much worse than what it has been so far this season without a single game above 58-percent. He needs to start hauling in those targets before you can trust him in your lineups.
Week 6 One-to-Watch: CeeDee Lamb
It wasn’t pretty for the Dallas Cowboys in week 6. Trusty workhorse Ezekiel Elliott continued to put his team on the backfoot with turnovers and the defense is a shambles. The good news is that this puts them in a position where they need to throw more, which is great for Lamb and the other pass-catchers. The bad news is that Andy Dalton is certainly not Dak Prescott and with a lack of mobility behind a banged-up o-line, the quantity and quality of those targets is suffering.
Despite this, Lamb did get 10 targets which was good enough for 19-percent of the target share. Now, just look at those numbers for a minute. 19-percent on most teams is not enough for 10 targets so if the overall passing volume decreases then I’m not sure we should expect 10 targets every week. I highlighted him as one-to-watch this week to see whether Dalton would go to him and the 10 targets is encouraging there. It didn’t look good in the first half but he went to him often after half time. There’s still no doubting Lamb’s talents but we need to see this o-line give Dalton some more time so he can find him.
Another 7 targets for Shenault is great to see even if he had nothing to show for it this week. He mustered 10 yards on his 3 catches so this wasn’t a great day for his production, but the targets are promising. Minshew does seem to spread the ball around with DJ Chark and Keelan Cole both seeing more targets than Shenault but he’s on the field plenty (73-percent snap share). We love the targets and he’s going to have better games than a 43-percent catch rate but he’s another one that I wouldn’t start unless I was in a pinch.
George Kittle is the clear number one in San Francisco, we know that. The concern with Brandon Aiyuk is that he’s not even the clear number two. A touchdown catch propped up his floor but he only got 3 targets and it’s clear that the 49ers don’t heavily target one receiver (other than Kittle because why wouldn’t you!). He’ll get the occasional carry and he’ll score on some gadget plays but he’s another receiver I wouldn’t be any rush to roster in redraft leagues unless it’s a deep one.
Justin Jefferson had himself a week. And if you follow any of the dynasty community on Twitter, you would have seen plenty of calls for him to be considered high-up in the dynasty wide receiver rankings. A season-high 89-percent snap share, 2 touchdown catches, a 2-point conversion catch, and 166 yards off 11 targets. That’s three of the last four games with over 100 yards. Interestingly, his one down game (week 5) saw him with an aDOT (average depth of target) of 10.6. In the other three of his last four games he’s had an aDOT of 14.2, 17.6 and 12.5. When he gets those deep shots, he’s hauling them in and he’s putting points on the board. This was always destined to be a top matchup against Atlanta but I’d be putting Jefferson in my starting lineups with as much confidence as any WR2 right now.
I told you last week to go get Tee Higgins. Did you? If not, why not? It’s too late, you aren’t going to get him now, unless his owner is looking at AJ Green by mistake. Green out-targeted Higgins this week but Higgins was once again the receiver that was on the field more than any other. He got 8 targets, caught 6 of them and put down 125 yards. No touchdown for him this week but that doesn’t even matter if he’s getting this kind of workload. I’m in on Tee Higgins.
A week 6 bye for Henry Ruggs ahead of a tough matchup against Tampa Bay. They’ve had a bit of time to work on the gameplan so lets see whether Derek Carr can do better than Aaron Rodgers just did and find Ruggs the ball. I wouldn’t be looking to start him with any level of confidence in this one.
Mapletron did it again. Chase Claypool benefited last week from an injury to Diontae Johnson and made it count in a huge way. Well in week 6, Johnson was again ruled out and this left the door open for Claypool to repeat his week 5 antics. What a ridiculous thing to expect a rookie to put up multiple touchdowns in consecutive weeks, not a chance…but he almost managed it! He scored one on the ground and was inches away from converting a second touchdown to cap off his day.
He only got 4 targets but that was good for 17-percent target share and joint second on the team (with Juju and Ebron) behind James Washington (30-percent). Claypool out-snapped the rest of the receivers on his team and offers both size and versatility that make him uniquely positioned to produce anything at anytime on this team. He’ll have his down weeks but the rushing upside helps with the boom potential and it would be hard to sit him on current form. Watch out for Johnson returning.
Injury Issues
- Jalen Reagor (WR)
- Denzel Mims (WR)
- Michael Pittman Jr (WR)
- Bryan Edwards (WR)
- KJ Hamler (WR)
- Darrynton Evans (RB)
Zack Moss is officially off the injury list and back in action but the receivers are struggling to get off the treatment table.
Darrynton Evans has now made his way on to this list after landing on IR with a hamstring injury.
LONGER-TERM PLAY WITH EARLY QUESTION MARKS
- Gabriel Davis (WR)
Gabriel Davis’ position on this team is clear. When Diggs, Brown and Beasley are playing, Davis has a rotational cameo role. He did play 62-percent of offensive snaps but only one target in a game with the top three wide receivers available. Keep an eye on those injury reports and if one of them is going to miss the game, think about throwing Gabriel Davis in your lineup. If they’re all available, skip past him without another thought.
Tua-Watch (Potential Late Season Plays)
- Tua Tagovailoa (QB)
It’s Tua time! In a blow-out win over the Jets, it was finally time for Tua to play his first snaps. And it was fantastic to not only hear the cheers of the limited crowd but also see Fitzmagic carrying on like an over-enthusiastic parent.
Tua has a 100-percent career completion rate. Ok, it was two throws for nine yards but let him have it people. The guy went from presumptive number one pick to a career-threatening injury and is now taking snaps in the NFL.
It’s now been announced by Miami that Tua is the starter from here on (they must have been impressed with that 100-percent completion rate…). This is great news for the future of him and a frisky Dolphins team who might just be showing something this year. Fitz has been a fantastic servant for Miami and will no doubt be coaching Tua on the sidelines throughout, that’s a great position for the rookie to be in. They have a bye in week 7 so two weeks to get used to the leftie taking snaps under centre. As a result, he’ll go in to the starters category of this article and ‘Tua Watch’ will be no more.
Backup – not this year without an injury
- Jordan Love (QB)
- Jalen Hurts (QB)
- Jacob Eason (QB)
- James Morgan (QB)
- Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB)
- La’Mical Perine (RB)
- Anthony McFarland Jr (RB)
- DeeJay Dallas (RB)
- AJ Dillon (RB)
- Lynn Bowden (RB)
- Devin Duvernay (WR)
- Antonio Gandy-Golden (WR)
- Quintez Cephus (WR)
- Van Jefferson (WR)
Ke’Shawn Vaughn has made it on to the field for three weeks in a row now. This week it was 5 carries and 1 target but they were all when Tampa was blowing out Green Bay. Four of his five carries came with Blaine Gabbert under centre so that tells you everything you need to know there. Similarly in the same game AJ Dillon got 5 carries on a season-high 10 snaps but this was at the end of the game when it was all said and done.
La’Mical Perine saw his season-high snap count (58-percent) with Bell having absconded to Kansas City. Frank Gore led the way still with 50-percent of the team’s carries, leaving 7 for Perine on a day where they were only able to rush 22 times. As with all Jets running backs, he didn’t do much with his opportunities but unless they’re going to make a splash trade in the next few weeks, Perine might just get some more opportunity.
Benny Snell is still the next man up behind James Conner so Anthony McFarland will have to be content with 3 carries and 1 target for now. DeeJay Dallas was on a bye and Lynn Bowden got on the field 5 times without a carry or target. Remember when he was a thing? Me neither.
Devin Duvernay is seeing a small increase in snaps each week, creeping up to 36-percent of offensive snaps in week 6. 3 targets for 31 yards is his best outing yet but it’s still very much a cameo role at this stage. Meanwhile Antonio Gandy-Golden only played 7 snaps but did leave with a hamstring injury. Quintez Cephus was nowhere to be seen for Detroit’s trip to Jacksonville and Van Jefferson got his obligatory 1 target on 3 snaps.
Jalen Hurts got his highest snap count with 7 but he wasn’t throwing the ball again. With 2 rushes for 23 yards on the ground, maybe he’ll get some work as a running back with all the injuries piling up in Philadelphia. Although Green Bay sat Aaron Rodgers towards the end of the game, Jordan Love was unable to get that experience as a healthy scratch on the week.
Special Tight End Category
- Devin Asiasi
- Cole Kmet
- Josiah Deguara
- Dalton Keene
- Adam Trautman
- Harrison Bryant
- Albert Okwuegbunam
- Colby Parkinson
- Brycen Hopkins
I definitely heard Devin Asiasi’s name on the broadcast on Sunday night, and he was on the field for 42-percent of offensive snaps. But he’s yet to get a target in New England as he plays a clear role as a blocker.
And I know you heard Cole Kmet’s name this week. He only got 2 targets but one of them was his first career touchdown and it was great to see.
Adam Trautman was on a bye while Josiah Deguara, Dalton Keene and Colby Parkinson sit on IR. Parkinson is designated to return soon to a crowded tight end room in Seattle. Harrison Bryant continues to get the occassional target, adding two to his stats this week for a single catch and 11 yards. With Njoku back in Cleveland, he doesn’t have much to offer right now. Brycen Hopkins continues to watch from his living room.
A lot was said about Albert O’s connection with Drew Lock from college when he was drafted and we got to see a taster of that this week with Noah Fant on the sidelines. His 6 targets was good enough for 25-percent of the target share in a low passing volume offense. He only caught two of his targets but nearly snagged one of them for a touchdown. Between him and Kmet, it was nice to see some rookie tight ends get a look.
Week 7
There’s a real mix of results amongst the rookies right now and some bouncing around that makes it difficult to put your trust in them in any given week.
At Quarterback, Burrow and Herbert continue to be in the mix as streamable options while Tua might be worth a stash in a deeper league to see how he develops. CEH, Taylor and Robinson are still the running backs that you can start with some semblance of confidence as long as you aren’t banking on RB1 production. Outside of them, you can start Swift and Gibson if you have to but you’re praying for a touchdown.
There’s some good options amongst the receivers with Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Jeudy, Higgins and Claypool all startable options with some big upside, in addition to the boom or bust punt plays of Shenault, Aiyuk and Ruggs.
Keep an eye on La’Mical Perine in New York. No-one really wants to play a Jets running back but his opportunity is there now and if Gase exits stage-left any time soon, it could get interesting.
The two guys I’m watching closely for this week:
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire – is there anyone who isn’t fascinated to see what role Bell is going to play and how it impacts the little bowling ball?
- Tua – he’s got the job now, lets see how he looks
Don’t forget to check back next week to see how these rookie values are changing.
