Tyrod Taylor 2020 Fantasy Football Outlook
As managers of fantasy football teams, there is little that we have control of. Outside of lineup decisions, we can only control how well we draft our teams. During the draft process we must take into account a myriad of factors. To name a few, variables such as position runs, current roster construction, paying attention to other owners’ team needs, and opportunity cost are all being taken into consideration.
Underlying all these decisions is one fundamental theme: risk exposure. How conservative or aggressively each of us drafts determines how much risk we expose ourselves to. However, every year there are a few players that go late enough which eliminate all worry of risk. These players make all of us look foolish for ranking them so low or completely writing them off in the first place.
This year, Tyrod Taylor is stepping up to the podium as that player. Several factors are congealing which are granting Tyrod Taylor the opportunity to become a valuable contributor to our 2020 fantasy football teams with none of the risk exposure.
TYROD TAYLOR’S ADP IS ABSURD
At this year’s 2020 NFL draft, the Los Angeles Chargers selected Justin Herbert with the sixth overall pick. The narrative that Herbert will possibly supplant Taylor at some point in the season has completely suppressed Taylor’s fantasy draft eligibility. This narrative was established immediately after the draft and has rarely been revisited. At that time, we were months away from the season opener and assumed that the NFL season would begin relatively smoothly come September. However, we are less than two months away from opening day and circumstances seem just as convoluted as they did a few months ago. In the meanwhile, the commentary has pivoted from immense opportunities for rookies, to playing it safe with already established veterans who are familiar with their respective systems.
According to FantasyPros, Taylor is being drafted in the 20th round as the 29th quarterback overall. He is going behind Gardner Minshew, Tua Tagovailoa, Sam Darnold, and a smidgen ahead of Dwayne Haskins. Here is why that’s preposterous. He is a mobile quarterback taking the field with talents such as Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Hunter Henry. In addition, he’ll be playing under a coach and an offensive system which he’s found previous success in. Now consider that his opportunity cost is null, and there isn’t any reason why any of us should not be acquiring him.
TYROD TAYLOR REUNITED WITH ANTHONY LYNN
Anthony Lynn is the current head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers. Prior to his tenure with the Chargers, he served as the assistant coach of the Buffalo Bills in 2015 and was promoted as the offensive coordinator of the Bills in 2016.
Tyrod served as the starting quarterback for the Bills during those two years which proved to be the most productive of his NFL career. During that two-year span, he threw for just over 6000 yards and 31 TD’s. More importantly, he rushed for 568 yards and four TD’s in 2015 and 580 yards and six TD’s in 2016. His rushing accounted for nearly 17 percent off his production each of those two years.
To put this in perspective, last year Josh Allen rushed for 510 yards while throwing for 3089 yards yet Allen’s rushing production accounted for 14 percent of his total on field production. During each of their two years in Buffalo, both quarterbacks’ production is nearly identical. Interestingly enough though, their ADP’s are worlds apart. As it stands, Allen is going in the 7th round and Taylor is being drafted in the 20th. Same production with a 13 round difference.
When Lynn left Buffalo in 2017, Taylor’s production declined as he threw for only 2,799 yards and 14 TD’s while rushing for 427 yards and 4 TD’s. His rushing dipped over 145 yards in 2017 in contrast to his two year rushing average produced with Lynn.
See Where Tyrod Taylor Lands In Our 2020 Fantasy Football Rankings!
Per Fantasy Data, under Lynn, Taylor averaged 19.3 fantasy points per game in 2015 and 18.1 fantasy points per game in 2016. Let me remind you that this was with a Buffalo team nowhere near the talent level of the 2020 San Diego Chargers. This year he’ll be a solid high-end QB2/low end QB1 with upside.
Anthony Lynn trusts Tyrod Taylor as a season long starting quarterback and it is my belief that the Chargers’ front office forced the Justin Herbert pick. The market that they are in, along with the new stadium, incentivised the Chargers to draft Herbert.
With Taylor’s rushing production providing a weekly safe floor, the upside contributed by the Chargers’ talented offense, and the reunion between player and coach should prove to be yet another productive season for Taylor.
LONG ODDS FOR JUSTIN HERBERT AS STARTING QUARTERBACK
Herbert is a quarterback with inherent issues at the position already. During his college career, his performances had drastic swings. There were moments of brilliance but they would be followed up by instances which revealed impatience and incompetence. Sometimes it seemed like he failed to see the entire field and got tunnel vision when he began to scramble. His read progression, relative to specific coverages, put his receivers in dangerous situations as he’d often be late to make those throws or again, failed to see the entire field.
The Chargers’ schedule should further present Taylor the opportunity to maintain starter status. FantasyPros has the Chargers’ quarterback position projected for the fifth easiest schedule this year and I could not agree more. They open as follows:
Week 1: at Cincinnati Bengals
2: vs Kansas City Chiefs
3: vs Carolina Panthers
4: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Their first difficult game comes in week five as they travel to face the Saints in New Orleans. Taylor last played against the Saints in 2018 when he played for the Browns. In that game he earned a QB rating of 98.6 while nearly defeating the Saints had they not missed the PAT after Taylor connected with Antonio Callaway on a beautiful 47 yard bomb.
Considering the pandemic, Taylor’s familiarity with the offense, and the Chargers’ strength of schedule, it isn’t difficult to see why Herbert will not see meaningful snaps during the season. It is Taylor’s job to lose. Should it not work out, it won’t hurt you as a fantasy manager as he was acquired for free at his current draft price.
See Where Justin Herbert Lands In Our Dynasty Quarterback Rankings
Imagine for a second if Herbert had not been drafted by the Chargers this year. Would our perception about Taylor change? If so, would it be higher? How much higher? Would we select him over a player like Jimmy Garoppolo who’s ranked 10 spots above Taylor? I know I would.
These small thought experiments help put our perceptions about individual players in check. In Tyrod’s case, it helps us project the level of success he will have this year. The fantasy community’s confidence level in Taylor has plummeted offering all of us prime value. It is on us savvy drafters to exploit it.
Make sure to follow Yards Per Fantasy analyst @ZKantzFF.
