Trust in Justin: Week 9 Rookie Stock Update
While Drew Brees and Tom Brady trade hall of fame records, the young gun Quarterbacks are mounting a charge at their own rookie records. Now I’m not anointing Burrow and Herbert as future hall-of-famers but there’s a poetry about these two firing like they are while the old guard push to the end of their careers. The game is in good hands boys.
Dynasty Rankings!
As always, I’m going to look at how the opportunities are developing for the rookies and speculate on their outlook for the rest of the season.
Here is the Week 9 rookie stock update.
Starters
Quarterback
- Joe Burrow
- Justin Herbert
- Tua Tagovailoa
Joe Burrow
- 70 – his 3rd game this season with over 70-percent completion rate
- 4,544 – that’s his 16-game yardage pace. At most, a handful of players top that each year so that’s pretty impressive for a rookie
- 8 – Burrow has thrown to 8 or 9 different receivers in every single game of the season so far, he likes to spread the love
- Schedule – a bye next week and then a tough matchup against the Steelers, but then he gets to face Washington, Giants, Dolphins, and Cowboys. A nice upcoming schedule for him
Outlook: He continues to be a solid low-end QB1/high-end QB2 with week-winning upside. A little lower in 4-point per passing touchdown leagues than in 6-point leagues
Justin Herbert
- 4,550 – Herbert’s current yardage pace for the season. Looks similar to Burrow’s right? Well Herbert’s done it on one fewer game
- 43 – and that’s the total TDs he’s on pace to score (including rushing TDs). Impressive
- QB14, QB20, QB9, QB4, QB1, QB4 – Herbert’s weekly fantasy finishes in his games so far
Outlook: Load him up, put him in your QB1 slot and leave him there until further notice. It doesn’t seem to matter the opponent or the gamescript. No doubt he won’t be able to continue this pace but I’m not betting against him
Week 8 One-to-Watch: Tua Tagovailoa
Tua Tagovailoa
- 22 – yes it’s his age but it’s also the number of pass attempts in his debut
- 55 – a 55-percent completion rate on his 22 attempts was good enough for only 93 yards
- 4.2 – yards-per-attempt is all that gives him. Intended Air Yards was over 100 so he did try to go deep at times but he didn’t see a return
Outlook: Slowly slowly catchy monkey. This was a strange game where the Rams ran a monumental 90 plays and Miami were able to rely on their defense and ground game. Let’s see how Tua goes when he’s in a competitive game and needs to throw. We should see that at Arizona in Week 9
Running Back
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire
- Jonathan Taylor
- Antonio Gibson (BYE)
- Joshua Kelley
- D’Andre Swift
- JK Dobbins
- James Robinson (BYE)
- Cam Akers
- Zack Moss
- La’Mical Perine
Clyde Edwards-Helaire |
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| Snaps | 33 (50-percent) | Last Week: 27 (53-percent) |
| Carries | 6 (30-percent) | Last Week: 8 (36-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 0 | Last week: 3 (50-percent of team total) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 0 | Last week: 1 (25-percent of team total) |
| Targets | 3 (6-percent) | Last week: 4 (16-percent of team total) |
- 61 – once again the starters were pulled at the end. So if you look at the stats before that time, CEH had a 61-percent snap share, 50-percent of the carries, and 7-percent of the targets
- 50 – the impact of Le’veon Bell continues to be seen as CEH only managed 50-percent (down from 67-percent last week) of the running back opportunities (carries plus targets)
- 1 – that’s the total of team’s Redzone carries. There’s two ways to look at this. Firstly, there was only 1 carry and Bell got it, that’s not a promising sign for CEH although it wasn’t exactly on the goal-line. Secondly, the Chiefs just aren’t running in the redzone and that hurts all running back touches
Outlook: I’m still urging caution here. It’s now two games but they’ve both been blow-outs and this was a ‘revenge game’ for Bell. Problem is the Chiefs are going to be in a lot of blow-outs. I’m still holding tight on him as a mid-range RB2 long-term and looking for a smash game from him against the Panthers in week 9
Jonathan Taylor |
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| Snaps | 26 (34-percent) | Last Week: BYE |
| Carries | 11 (28-percent) | Last Week: BYE |
| Redzone carries | 1 (20-percent) | Last Week: BYE |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 1 (25-percent) | Last Week: BYE |
| Targets | 3 (9-percent) | Last Week: BYE |
- 34 – 34-percent of snaps is his lowest so far this season, having been over 50-percent for two weeks in a row before his bye. There’s talk of a possible injury that may have limited him but I’m not sure I’m buying it
- 14-18 – since his monster opportunity total in week 2 (28 opportunities), Taylor has had between 14 and 18 opportunities (carries + targets) in all four of his games. Putting aside the snap count and injury questions, we may need to consider that this is the role and workload that the Colts want for him right now
- 25 – according to nextgenstats, Taylor sees 8+ defenders in the box on 25-percent of his rush attempts. That’s 3rd in the league for players with 100+ attempts (Jacobs and Cook)
Outlook: What do we do with Taylor? He’s struggling and the other backs on his team seem to fair much better when they get their shot. But they don’t face the stacked boxes that he does. Lets see if this injury was anything of note but the Colts need to find some better ways of opening things up for him. He’s an RB2 for now and you’re hoping for a touchdown
Joshua Kelley |
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| Snaps | 21 (24-percent) | Last Week: 38 (47-percent) |
| Carries | 7 (18-percent) | Last Week: 12 (38-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 1 (100-percent) | Last Week: 3 (38-percent of team total) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 0 (team total = 0) | Last Week: 1 (33-percent of team total) |
| Targets | 1 (2-percent) | Last Week: 5 (11-percent of team total) |
- 8 – total opportunities (carries + targets) is his lowest of the season
- 24 – 24-percent of snaps equals his season-low week one outing
- Troymaine Pope – despite Austin Ekeler being out with injury, Kelley was still losing action to Pope who has been restricted to a special teams role since his move to LA in 2019. That’s an indictment on Kelley if you still needed one
Outlook: Last week I said you could hold him if you had a spot, just to see how the backfield looked with Jackson fully fit. You can drop him now
Week 8 One-to-Watch: D’Andre Swift
D’Andre Swift |
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| Snaps | 38 (62-percent) | Last Week: 28 (45-percent) |
| Carries | 6 (46-percent) | Last Week: 9 (43-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 0 (team total = 0) | Last Week: 3 (75-percent of team total) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 0 (team total = 0) | Last Week: 2 (67-percent of team total) |
| Targets | 4 (10-percent) | Last Week: 5 (14-percent of team total) |
- 13 – that’s how many times the Lions rushed the ball in this game. That’s ludicrously low. So while 6 carries doesn’t look like much it was, for the first time, the most on his team
- 62 – a 62-percent snap share is a season high for Swift. Since the bye, his snaps have gone from 38-percent to 45-percent and now 62-percent. His role is increasing, despite what the headline numbers say
- 4 – that’s now 6 out of 7 games where he’s received 4 or more targets. We want high value touches from our running backs and that’s what this is
- Other backs – there are still other backs on this team and they will still be a thorn in his side, but he’s carving out lead-back status. Just a shame about that Kerryon touchdown
Outlook: The headline numbers didn’t look good but Swift’s role has continued to increase week after week, continuing to chip away at Peterson’s touches in the process. The pass-heavy team approach killed him on the ground but if he had caught that touchdown instead of Kerryon, we’d be locking him in as a gamescript-proof running back. You might still be able to get him cheap after this one, go buy him, he’s an RB2
JK Dobbins |
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| Snaps | 54 (66-percent) | Last Week: BYE |
| Carries | 15 (32-percent) | Last Week: BYE |
| Redzone carries | 1 (10-percent) | Last Week: BYE |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 0 | Last Week: BYE |
| Targets | 2 (7-percent) | Last Week: BYE |
- Career day – with no Mark Ingram and a bye to get ready, Dobbins played his highest number of snaps (66-percent), had his most carries (15) and got his highest yardage return (121 total yards)
- Split – this is a still a split backfield, even without Ingram. It was almost an exact 3-way split between Dobbins, Edwards and Lamar. Edwards is still the first and second down back, and will be the short yardage/goal-line back, but Dobbins looked explosive with his opportunities
- Playoff Schedule – his week 15 and 16 opponents are the Jaguars and the Giants. If he can continue to carve out a role, that looks tasty
Outlook: Tricky position for Dobbins with the backfield split but his explosive performance could help him see an increase in workload, at least until Ingram is back. Don’t mortgage your future for him but you can play him as a mid/low-end RB2 for now
Cam Akers |
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| Snaps | 20 (21-percent) | Last Week: 3 (4-percent) |
| Carries | 9 (31-percent) | Last Week: 0 |
| Redzone carries | 0 | Last Week: 0 |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 0 | Last Week: 0 |
| Targets | 1 (3-percent) | Last Week: 0 |
- 35 – his 35 yards on 9 carries wasn’t overly inspiring but at least he got some workload in this game
- Henderson – once again, this looked like Henderson’s backfield with Malcolm Brown mixing in, until Henderson went out injured. That’s what it takes for Akers to have any relevance, but he needs to do better with his opportunities when they come
- Bye – the Rams now have a bye week which makes it tough to add Akers off waivers and gives Henderson time to recover
Outlook: Unless we get word that Henderson is out long-term, there’s no way I’m holding Akers through a bye week. He should already be on waiver wires in your league, leave him there
Zack Moss |
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| Snaps | 31 (53-percent) | Last Week: 35 (47-percent) |
| Carries | 14 (37-percent) | Last Week: 7 (26-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 6 (67-percent) | Last Week: 0 |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 4 (67-percent) | Last Week: 0 |
| Targets | 1 (6-percent) | Last Week: 3 (7-percent of team total) |
- 31 – 53-percent might be a season high but 31 snaps is not. In fact, it’s only third. Other than his first game back from injury, Moss’ snap count has been consistently in that range
- Singletary – they had the exact same number of carries, the exact same number of targets and were only 1 total yard different in their production. This is a 50-50 split, but with Moss getting the redzone work to make him the more valuable of the two
- Schedule – I said it last week but it’s important to reiterate. Buffalo’s schedule for running backs is brutal from here out including the 15th best defence against running backs, 10th best, 9th, 6th, 5th, and 4th.
Outlook: I’d hold him over Singletary given the 50-50 split and his touchdown upside. He’s only a deep stash for me, based on that schedule (and a bye week still to come). If you have him, see if you can flip him to a running-back needy team
La’Mical Perine |
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| Snaps | 28 (49-percent) | Last Week: 40 (70-percent) |
| Carries | 8 (32-percent) | Last Week: 11 (50-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 0 (team total = 0) | Last Week: 3 (100-percent of team total) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 0 (team total = 0) | Last Week: 1 (100-percent of team total) |
| Targets | 2 (7-percent) | Last Week: 3 (13-percent of team total) |
- 49 – a 49-percent snap share is down from the previous two weeks without Bell. This is disappointing to see after it looked like Perine was starting to get more work off Gore. The good news though, Gore only played on 39-percent of snaps, so Perine was still on the field more
- 3.4 – Perine’s yards-per-carry continues to be nothing to write home about, failing to hit 4 yards-per-carry since week 2. Gore is still getting slightly more work than him on the ground and when he is carrying the ball, it’s rough
Outlook: I was hoping to see Perine take more of the work off Gore but as many before him have discovered, that’s easier said than done. This is a poor quality offense even if he does get the opportunity and Perine is a desperation punt-play at best. No need to hold on to him
Wide Receiver
- Jerry Jeudy
- CeeDee Lamb
- Laviska Shenault (BYE)
- Brandon Aiyuk
- Justin Jefferson
- Tee Higgins
- Henry Ruggs
- Chase Claypool
- Denzel Mims
- KJ Hamler
- Jalen Reagor
- Michael Pittman Jr
Jerry Jeudy
- 89-percent snap count is his highest of the year for Jeudy and comes off the back of Denver running 79-percent of their plays with 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR). That’s after two straight weeks of heavy 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR)
- 10 targets – after three weeks of 5 or less targets, it’s great for Jeudy to see this target bump in week 8. It also represents 24-percent target share, the highest on the team. It’s no coincidence though that this comes when Tim Patrick misses the game through injury. KJ Hamler was back but Jeudy is clearly the lead receiver when Patrick is missing
- 40-percent – Jeudy’s catch-rate has still failed to top 57-percent this season and another 40-percent game brings his season average below 50-percent
Outlook: 10 targets is promising but it’s not turning in to production and I still don’t want to roster him, especially when Tim Patrick is back. If Patrick is out, he’s worth a punt as a WR3
CeeDee Lamb
- 47-percent snap count – in three of his last four games he’s played less than 40 snaps, and now he falls below 50-percent snap count for the first time
- 27 yards – other than his complete goose-egg last week, 27 yards is Lamb’s lowest receiving total of the season. He did add 19 yards on the ground but this is not useful fantasy production whatever way you cut it
- Ben DiNucci, Garrett Gilbert, Cooper Rush – one of those three will be throwing the ball in week 9. Gulp
Outlook: I’m starting to worry about this whole offense. If you can afford to, hold him for a few more weeks until after the bye and when Dalton is back to see what the offense looks like then. But if you need the roster spot, they have Pittsburgh in week 9 and then a bye so I wouldn’t blame you for dropping him
Brandon Aiyuk
- 11 targets – with the other pieces of this offense falling down around him, Aiyuk got 27-percent of the target share and his 11 targets was the highest on the team
- 1:55 – that’s how long was left on the clock when Aiyuk’s fantasy day was saved with a touchdown. Plenty of targets but a disappointing day outside of that late touchdown
- Last man standing – Aiyuk is once again last man standing going in to week 9 but his QB is also injured and we’re now relying on Nick Mullens to keep him relevant
Outlook: I’d be surprised if he wasn’t picked up last week ahead of a great Seattle matchup but if he wasn’t, he’s still fantasy viable in week 9. With the injuries around him, he should get the majority of the workload but this decimated San Fran team may struggle to move the ball as a whole. He’s a WR3 until Deebo comes back
Tee Higgins
- 9 targets – his joint highest target count of the season and the most targeted player on the team (24-percent target share)
- AJ Green – has had a resurgence in the past couple of weeks in both snaps and targets but Higgins is still Burrow’s trusted target. Meanwhile, Auden Tate came out of nowhere in week 8 with 7 targets, reminding us that Burrow likes to spread the targets around the team
- WR22 – on the year, Higgins is now WR22 in PPR leagues and that’s despite playing very little part in week 1
Outlook: Keep putting Higgins in your lineup with confidence, he’s a WR2
Henry Ruggs
- 8 yards – that’s it. That’s all that he got through the air in addition to 1 yard on the ground
- 17-percent – four targets to go with his three targets each of the previous three weeks, represents 17-percent of the target share. Still only 8 yards though
- 35mph – that was the wind speed in this one. For a guy that relies on the downfield play, that wind was not conducive to production
Outlook: That’s two straight weeks of nothing to show for Ruggs. We’re in danger of making excuses for him every week (tough Tampa Defense in week 7, wind in week 8) but I don’t want any part of Ruggs unless its a deep league
Chase Claypool
- 41 snaps – not only was that Claypool’s snap count but it was also the snap count of Diontae Johnson and JuJu. Johnson again missed some of this game with injury but came back in
- 42 yards – with only 42 yards off his 9 targets, he needed the touchdown to save his day. The good news for him is that he out-targeted everyone else on the team
- Schedule – Dallas, Cincinnati and Jacksonville in their next three games. Even as the third option, you’re playing him in all three of those matchups
Outlook: Play him with confidence for the next three weeks in great matchups. His floor is low and you’ll get the odd bust but don’t be surprised to see some booms in these upcoming games
Denzel Mims
- 96-percent – that’s how much of the snaps he played in only his second career start. If that doesn’t show confidence I don’t know what does
- 42 yards – apparently that’s his lucky number. Two games played, 42 yards in each
- 15:40 – that’s the time between his second and third (and last) target in this game. He started well with two targets and all of his yards in the first quarter, then nothing. He got the first target of the second half and again, nothing
Outlook: Still plenty of promise but this Jets team is awful and unless they start actually using their best players, he’s a bench stash
KJ Hamler
- 80-percent of snaps – his second best count of the year, it’s the opportunity we were looking for before his injury
- 13 yards – 3 targets for 3 catches and 13 yards, not too much production for all that time on the field
- 1 touchdown – congratulations to the rookie with his first career touchdown with one second left to win the game
Outlook: Don’t chase the touchdown, he’s not getting enough volume to be fantasy relevant
Jalen Reagor
- 6 targets – career high after his return from injury
- 12.5 yards – aDOT (average depth of target) is healthier than the 3.8 of week 2 and more sustainable than the 34 of week 1
- Desean Jackson – he might just be that field stretching replacement that the Eagles have been looking for, to pair with Fulgham
Outlook: Pick him up if you still can, trade for him cheap, he’s on the up and he’ll be startable soon
Michael Pittman Jr
- 1st game back – really not much to talk about but it was only his first game back from injury
Outlook: No need to roster him in redraft
Injury Issues
- Bryan Edwards (WR)
- Darrynton Evans (RB)
Backup – not this year without an injury
- Jordan Love (QB) – inactive
- Jalen Hurts (QB) – 3 snaps, 1 pass attempt for 1 completion and 9 yards
- Jacob Eason (QB) – inactive
- James Morgan (QB) – inactive
- Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB) – 3 special teams snaps and 0 offensive snaps
- Anthony McFarland Jr (RB) – 1 snap, 1 rush for 1 yards and 0 targets
- DeeJay Dallas (RB) – he was last man standing in an injured Seattle backfield so got the workload. 18 carries for 41 yards, 5 targets for 5 catches and 17 yards plus 2 total touchdowns. It wasn’t particularly efficient but the volume was there with injuries around him. We might get another week out of him in week 9 but then he’ll be back on the bench
- AJ Dillon (RB) – 5 rushes for 21 yards and 1 target for 1 catch and 16 yards, all on only 10 snaps despite Jones being injured
- Lynn Bowden (RB) – 5 snaps, 0 targets
- Devin Duvernay (WR) – 37 snaps, 3 targets, 1 catch, 39 yards. He’s starting to carve out a role in the Baltimore offense
- Antonio Gandy-Golden (WR) – Injured Reserve
- Quintez Cephus (WR) – inactive
- Van Jefferson (WR) – 14 snaps, 2 target for 2 catches and 23 yards. After Josh Reynolds’ anti-DK Metcalf chase down on a Miami turnover, I wonder if we might see more of Jefferson in week 9
- Gabriel Davis (WR) – 60-percent of snaps with John Brown back from injury and only got 2 targets for 0 catches
Special Tight End Category
- Devin Asiasi – inactive for the second game in a row. Not fantasy relevant
- Cole Kmet – highest snap count of the season (43-percent) but only 1 catch off 1 target. Not fantasy relevant at this stage
- Josiah Deguara – Injured Reserve. Not fantasy relevant
- Dalton Keene – failed to capitalise on his first start in week 7 with an injury that kept him out of week 8. Not fantasy relevant
- Adam Trautman – he’s not the pass-catching tight end, no targets and only four so far this season. Not fantasy relevant
- Harrison Bryant – 80-percent snap count, 3 targets and 3 catches. Only 25 yards and Austin Hooper due back after the bye. Don’t expect him to be fantasy relevant after the bye
- Albert Okwuegbunam – with Fant fit and Denver running 11 personnel more, Albert O only 16 snaps and 1 target. That target was a touchdown but you aren’t starting him when Fant’s available.
- Colby Parkinson – Injured Reserve. Not fantasy relevant
- Brycen Hopkins – inactive. Not fantasy relevant
Start, Stash or Stink
Not including the injured and obvious backup guys, here’s who you can Start, who you should Stash on your bench and who should be Stinking up the waiver wire.
Start
Quarterback – Joe Burrow & Justin Herbert
Running Back – Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jonathan Taylor, Antonio Gibson, D’Andre Swift, James Robinson, JK Dobbins
Wide Receiver – Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins, Brandon Aiyuk (for now), Chase Claypool
Tight End – N/A
Stash
Quarterback – Tua Tagovailoa
Running Back – Zack Moss, La’Mical Perine
Wide Receiver – Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Laviska Shenault, Denzel Mims, Jalen Reagor
Tight End – Harrison Bryant, Albert Okwuegbunam
Stink
Quarterback – N/A
Running Back – Cam Akers, Joshua Kelley
Wide Receiver – Henry Ruggs, KJ Hamler, Michael Pittman Jr
Tight End – Everyone not named Harrison or Albert
Week 9 Ones-to-Watch
The two guys I’m watching closely for this week:
- Antonio Gibson – a post-bye rookie role expansion perhaps?
- Chase Claypool – will he hold on to a significant role and boom against this terrible Dallas defense?
Don’t forget to check back next week to see how these rookie values are changing.
