The backfield position has become increasingly difficult to find reliable production in recent years. I know this isn’t my fathers, or even my NFL anymore in terms of bell-cow three down backs. Aside from a handful of teams that still employ primary ball carriers, coaches are content to use more specialty backs and rotate guys. This certainly is beneficial to the long term health of the individual, but it sure does make it tough finding consistent value for fantasy. Since fantasy is the reason we are all here, to find production, particularly among some of the more uncertain situations is sometimes the key to distancing yourself from the pack and asserting dominance. Let’s be honest, what feels better than that? Being right is its own reward, but when it comes with a fantasy title its that much sweeter. I’m not implying following my advice will take you to a title, but if I’m right on any level you can reap the benefits bigly.
San Francisco 49ers
Jeff Wilson Jr.
The incumbent to start week one. New contract, very productive when given the chance. Good receiver, runs with anger.
Raheem Mostert
Fastest back on the roster but durability issues. Minimal cap hit if cut. Pushing 30. Runs upright so susceptible to hits. Good chance he is cut before camp. Bears watching if he makes the week one roster, but draft as a RB 3 at best.
Trey Sermon
The Ohio State rookie possesses good size and decent speed, but nothing really pops. Underrated receiver, third round pick so decent draft capital. If put in the position to get double digit touches he could return nice value, but on its face he isn’t going to beat out Wilson Or a healthy Mostert should he make the team. Watch preseason closely as Trey Sermon could be a great stash candidate.
Wayne Gallman
The free agent signing of Gallman was curious considering the bodies already on the roster. That being said we can’t pretend he doesn’t exist. If he stays healthy and makes the roster he will eat into the carries. Not worth rostering except the deepest leagues, however if injuries hit he could excel for a couple weeks.
Elijah Mitchell
I’m most intrigued by Mitchell. The Louisiana product, though just a sixth round pick possesses ridiculous speed, clocking a 4.3 Which is faster than any back that would’ve been invited to this years combine. Mitchell is an adept receiver and can return kicks as well, bolstering his chances to stick.
The 49ers are among the most productive running teams in the league. Watch camp and preseason closely. Wilson Jr. should be productive early but if he struggles or gets hurt, Trey Sermon could be the guy the second half.
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Philadelphia Eagles
Miles Sanders
Sanders appears to be the incumbent and could have a breakout third season. He could also pull a quad getting on the team plane and become an afterthought in this offense. New head coach Nick Siriani did not draft Sanders and as we have seen in so many situations could tire of Sanders time in the cold tub. If healthy can be drafted as a low end RB 1 but definitely have a backup plan.
Jordan Howard
The NFL version of Jason Vorhees, Howard simply will not die. He possesses the size to be the classic goal line vulture. We don’t know Siriani’s plan inside the five yard line but if it appears early on that Howard is going to get goal line looks, he could be an emergency, touchdown dependent stash.
Kerryon Johnson
The former second round pick of the Lions never lived up to the draft capital. Constant injury issues due to his upright running style led Detroit to let him go. What is interesting as well as alarming for Sanders truthers is the fact that Philadelphia felt the need to claim him. I see no reason that suddenly Johnson will stay healthy, but he is just 23, and was a high pick so he does possess talent. If Sanders misses games and Johnson excels in his stead why couldn’t Johnson take the job?
Kenneth Gainwell
The Eagles added the shifty Gainwell in the fifth round ostensibly to replace Boston Scott. However way too early reports have the Eagles considering moving Gainwell around the formation as a receiver as well. Gainwell was extremely productive his one year at Memphis, and is very intriguing as a late round sleeper in redraft.
Philly should start the season with Sanders getting the majority of the carries, but watch Johnson closely. If he outplays Sanders in camp and preseason he could force Siriani’s hand. Roster Gainwell as an end of bench flyer with upside.
New York Jets
Tevin Coleman
The 28 year old former Falcon and 49’er possesses the desired size and speed, but unfortunately is made of glass. Even if he somehow manages to start the season as the Jets starter he cannot be trusted as anything more than a bye week fill in.
Ty Johnson
Also a possible week one starter, what do we know about Johnson? It’s hard to judge any of the returning backs as Adam Gase insisted on running the rotted corpse of Frank Gore out every week. Johnson showed flashes, and has the necessary measurable to succeed, but unless he separates himself in camp he cant be drafted as more than a RB 4.
La’Mical Perine
Yet another victim of Adam Gase, Perine may never get the chance to produce as a Jet. Why? New run game coordinator John Benton brings with him a wide zone run scheme that doesn’t play to Perine’s skill set. This alone could secure Josh’s Adams as the fourth back with Perine looking to latch on elsewhere.
Michael Carter
The former Tarheel was taken in the fourth round and despite being slightly undersized at 5’8 and 200 pounds, he is specific to the wide zone scheme being employed. On the surface Carter screams complementary back, but who is he going to complement? The competition for touches is suspect at best and Carter belongs to Robert Saleh and the new regime in New York. Carter will be given every opportunity to run with this job, and if he does could be electric. Don’t be afraid to slightly overspend for Carter in redraft. Huge dividends could be paid.
Michael Carter: Fantasy Outlook For 2021 And Beyond
The Adam Gase reign of terror is over for the Jets, and unfortunately that means we have no real idea how good Johnson and Perine are. With that in mind, run from Coleman and snag Carter as a low end RB 2 with upside.
Houston Texans
David Johnson
Ok I know it sounds gross, but Johnson wasn’t terrible in 2020. He clearly is what he is at this point, an older, big back that will miss games. However the Texans want him back and Johnson restructured his contract to accommodate so he want to be their as well. He still has decent upside and could produce RB 3 numbers.
Mark Ingram
Ingram intrigues me the most of the Texans backs. He didn’t log many carries in the Ravens backfield in 2020 and despite his age, 31, could still have some fantasy value left. Ingram is a punishing runner and adept receiver that runs with a chip on his shoulder. He could be your quintessential vulture and rack 7-10 short touchdowns with the possibility of a couple more receiving.
Phillip Lindsay
After being unceremoniously dumper by Denver, the Texans signed Lindsay to a one year prove it deal. The problem with Lindsay is what role does he assume. He is simply not big enough to do any work inside the ten yard line, but possesses the speed to take any screen pass to the house. Considering the state of quarterback and offensive line in Houston there could be potential for lots of dump down production.
While the situation in Houston is not ideal, someone has to score touchdowns, right? There is always garbage value in every situation, key is identifying it and taking advantage. Definitely don’t rely on any of these backfields for consistent production, but pay attention and squeeze whatever value you can out of these committees.
