The WORST Pick In Every Round Of 2023 Fantasy Football Drafts

2023 Fantasy Football: The Worst Pick Of Every Round

It’s so easy to hype up players during fantasy football draft season. Everyone loves everyone this time of year. But sometimes we have to reign it in and come back to earth and admit that there are some players who are either being drafted too high or who shouldn’t be drafted at all. That’s why I went round-by-round through Underdog ADP to find the worst picks in every round of 2023 fantasy football drafts. Some of them are just a cost issue but a few are on my ‘do not draft’ list. Rather than just giving you a list of players to avoid in drafts, I also listed multiple alternative options for each round that you should consider drafting instead. You can also reference our redraft rankings to help you avoid this year’s land mines.

Round 1: Bijan Robinson (ADP: 9.0)

Let me preface with this: Bijan Robinson is a stud. He’s one of the best running back prospects to enter the NFL in recent seasons and he’s going to have a great career. Heck, he’s going to have a productive rookie season. But we’re taking him in the top-10 of non-dynasty fantasy football leagues? Absolutely not. The first round of fantasy football drafts is reserved for the proven studs. After all, this is our most precious asset for the 2023 season. Do we really want to use that on a guy who has never stepped foot on an NFL field? I don’t think so. 

And sure, he’s on a run-focused offense, but that isn’t necessarily a good thing for fantasy football. Yes, even for running backs. I did a study on this last offseason and discovered that in 2021, 67% of the top-12 running backs played in an offense with a neutral game script pass ratio above league average. In 2020, it was 58%. I haven’t looked at that data yet for last year, but I assume it will be about the same. The Falcons are rolling out Desmond Ridder at quarterback and are nearly a lock to finish bottom five in pass attempts.

Even if you ignore my study, we still have to be concerned about this for Bijan because half the reason you’re drafting him is for his receiving skills. How is he supposed to be one of the top receiving backs if his team isn’t passing? And when they are passing, he has to contend with Drake London and Kyle Pitts for targets. 

What about touchdowns? Is anyone projecting the Falcons to be one of the top scoring offenses in the NFL? No. Or even at league average? Unlikely. 

So then, if we can’t expect elite receiving production and we can’t expect a ton of touchdowns, then what are we doing? We’re just counting on a bunch of rushing yards? That’s not enough to be the high-end fantasy performer that is expected from a running back with a top-10 ADP.

Draft Instead:

• Stefon Diggs: Has been a top-12 WR in five of the last six seasons and is playing in one of the league’s most pass-friendly offenses.
• AJ Brown: Was WR8 in his first season in Philly and is tied to Jalen Hurts.
• CeeDee Lamb: WR7 in 2022

For RBs:

• Tony Pollard (in RD 2)
• Nick Chubb (in RD 2)

Both play in better offenses and have higher upside at a one round discount. 

Round 2: Garrett Wilson (ADP: 13.5)

Garrett Wilson was awesome in his rookie season. That was playing with an ugly combination of Zach Wilson, Mike White, and Joe Flacco at quarterback. Now he gets a quarterback upgrade with Aaron Rodgers coming over from Green Bay. But while the efficiency of the passes thrown his way will surely improve, Wilson is far from the lock for the second year breakout many are penciling him in for. 

For one, Rodgers’ Packers have been in the bottom half of the league in pass attempts per game in each of the last four seasons (2022: 18th, 2021: 18th, 2020: 24th, 2019: 17th). They averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game over that span. That happens in part because Aaron Rodgers runs the offense at such a slow pace. He’s obsessed with making sure he has the perfect play at the line before snapping the ball. That brings the play clock down within five seconds on the majority of snaps. As a result, the Packers were 31st, 32nd, 30th, and 26th in pace of play over that four year stretch.

Adding insult to injury, the Jets defense might be pretty good this year which will also contribute to keeping the pass attempts lower than we’d like for fantasy. The team could be nursing leads or playing in tight games that don’t require a ton of additional passing, especially with the return of Breece Hall and possible acquisition of Dalvin Cook. 

Meanwhile, the Jets added mild target competition by bringing in Rodgers’ pals Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb from Green Bay. 

With an ADP of 13th overall, Wilson will need to have about a 30% target share to make him worth that pick. It’s certainly not out of his range of outcomes, but why take that chance when he’s going ahead of both Amon-ra St. Brown and Davante Adams? Makes no sense.

Draft Instead:

• Amon-ra St. Brown: WR10 in 2022; Proven target machine in a fast-paced, high volume offense
• Davante Adams: Top-5 WR in each of the last three seasons. Hasn’t finished outside the top-12 since 2015
• Nick Chubb: Workhorse running back who is in a good offense and is expected to see an increase in targets and red zone opportunities. The best pure runner in football. Has finished as a top-10 RB in four-straight seasons 

 

Related:Garrett Wilson 2023 Outlook

Round 3: Calvin Ridley (ADP: 28.8)

The last time we got a full season from Calvin Ridley, he produced a WR4 season in 2020. But that included a lot of volume-fueled production in a year where Matt Ryan led the NFL in pass attempts and Julio Jones played just nine games. Outside of that, Ridley has never reached 900 yards in a season and he maxed out as the WR18 in 2019. In the five games we got from him in 2021, Ridley struggled with efficiency. He averaged under 1.5 yards per route and barely topped 9 yards per reception. His average target distance was under 10 yards. 

Then, things got weird. Ridley stepped away from football to focus on his mental health and then he was suspended for the entire 2022 season for betting on NFL games. 

Now he’s returning at age 29, two years since he last stepped on an NFL field and three years since we last got a productive season from him, and on a new team. Yet, his ADP suggests he’s a lock to pick up right where he left off. For one, he’s not going to just walk into Jacksonville and take over the WR1 job uncontested. And even if he is considered the WR1, he has real target competition. Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram all had career years in 2022. They’re not going away. And they’re all making more money than Ridley, for what it’s worth. 

I’m not trying to argue that Ridley will be a flop in Jacksonville. All indications are he will have a good season. My argument is that he is not worthy of his third round ADP. Based on everything we’ve discussed, he should be going multiple rounds later. I would be comfortable considering him in round six or seven, but as someone who is costing a third right now, count me out on Ridley for 2023.

Draft Instead:

• DK Metcalf: Over 140 targets last season 
• Breece Hall: A stud running back with a bellcow skill set and in a good offense 
• Keenan Allen: Averaged more than 16 fantasy points per game in 2022 and has been a top-13 WR in six straight seasons. He has Justin Herbert at QB in a high-volume/high-scoring offense.
• Christian Kirk (RD 5): If I’m drafting a Jaguars WR, it’s Kirk. He led the team in receiving last season and has an established chemistry with Trevor Lawrence. He could again lead the team in targets. 

Round 4: Jahmyr Gibbs (ADP: 36.3)

Man, the Jahmyr Gibbs hype is everywhere right now. He’s certainly looking every bit the part in training camp highlights. However, his ADP at the 3 / 4 turn is something I can’t get behind. I’m having a hard time with it because I expect David Montgomery to be pretty heavily involved. Montgomery is going to get a lot of that Jamaal Williams role from last season. He will dominate the between-the-tackles carries and red zone work. He is also going to be more involved in the receiving game than Gibbs drafters would like to admit. Still, Gibbs projects for around 50 receptions in his rookie season. 

But if you’re expecting him to get a ton of work on the ground, like his ADP suggests, you’re going to be disappointed. He was a committee back in college and he will be a committee back in the NFL. I anticipate Gibbs will see somewhere around 7-10 carries per game. It will be enough to threaten top-24 territory, but not quite to the RB12 price he’s currently going for.

Draft Instead:

• Breece Hall (In RD 3): If you’re looking for a RB at the 3 / 4 turn, just go with Hall in round three 
• Joe Mixon: Will also get you 50+ receptions, but will provide a lot more carries and touchdowns 
• David Montgomery (RD 7 / 8): I expect the per game fantasy production to be quite similar between Gibbs and Montgomery. Yet, their ADPs are four rounds apart. Montgomery is available in the eighth round on Underdog. When selecting him, we’re doing it over guys like Quentin Johnston, George Pickens, Gabe Davis, and Isiah Pacheco. For Gibbs, on the other hand, his Underdog ADP currently resides in the fourth round as the RB12. And he’s going to be into the third before we know it. We’re having to decide on him versus Najee Harris, Christian Watson, Travis Etienne, Joe Burrow, and Jerry Jeudy. That’s a massive difference.

Related: Deciphering The Lions Backfield: Which Running Back To Target

Round 5: Alexander Mattison (ADP: 57.8)

Call me a skeptic, but I don’t believe Alexander Mattison is a lock to just slide into the Cook role uncontested. He’s a career backup with no standout athletic traits. And sure, he’s been a high volume guy in spot starts over the years, but that was in the Mike Zimmer era. Mattison is the prototypical Zimmer running back—a big grinder who gets what’s blocked and nothing more. This is a guy who has averaged under four yards per carry in each of the last two seasons and has just five runs reach 15 yards on his last 208 attempts (2.4%).

In fact, let’s read this tweet from Rich Hribar: 

Over the past two seasons, 74 running backs have had 100 or more rushing attempts.Among those backs, Mattison ranks:

• 68th in yards per carry (3.7)
• 45th in success rate (37.5%)
• 43rd in explosive run rate (9.1%)
• 42nd in yards after contact per carry (2.78)

And he’s certainly not adding any value as a pass catcher. In 2022, Mattison averaged 0.73 yards per route which ranked No. 84 among all NFL running backs (PlayerProfiler). 

When fantasy analysts talk about “dead zone running backs,” this is who they’re talking about. Mattison is only being drafted this high because of opportunity. It’s not because of skill. Nobody thinks Mattison is this super talented running back, they’re drafting him because of his situation. That’s a dangerous game to play. In fact, the most carries Mattison has ever seen in a season is 134. He could be asked to double that in 2023. 

I’m not even sure he’s the best runner on the Vikings roster. The team just drafted DeWayne McBride in the seventh round. Out of all the running backs who were drafted in 2023, it’s McBride who ran for the most yards last season. He had a career average of 7.4 yards per carry during his time at UAB. McBride is a power back like Mattison who runs with good vision but he adds some quickness and agility to make defenders miss in the open field—something Mattison doesn’t.

While we’re talking about bad draft picks from every round, Mattison in round five may be the worst of the worst. 

Draft Instead:

• Kenneth Walker: Big, talented, explosive runner in a good offense
• Chris Godwin: Undervalued and will be a target magnet
• Diontae Johnson: The most obvious bounce-back candidate of 2023. He’s not going to be held out of the touchdown column again. 
• TJ Hockenson: A target machine once he joined the Vikings last season. The team could be top-3 in pass attempts 

Multi-Rounds Later:

• Cam Akers
• Rachaad White
• David Montgomery 

Round 6: Mike Evans (ADP: 66.9)

Mike Evans was tough to roster in fantasy football last season. Yet, he finished strong and actually had the most receiving yards of his three seasons with Tom Brady. However, a lot of that was fueled by pure volume. He only saw 19.7% of the targets, but Brady attempted a massive 751 passes. Efficiency was still a problem for Evans as it has been for the last few years, but this time he didn’t have the touchdowns to make up for it. He only scored six times after combining for 27 over the previous two seasons—and three of those came in one game. He ranked 33rd in yards per route, 26th in yards per target, and 29th in yards per team pass attempt. Evans also won on just 41% of his route’s which ranked 45th among wide receivers according to PlayerProfiler.com.

For fantasy football, the final numbers look nice, but Evans scored 35% of his fantasy points in two games. He only finished as a top-12 wide receiver three times. On the flip side, he scored outside the top-30 on 10 occasions with half of those landing outside the top-40. 

Now, Brady is retired and Baker Mayfield is the presumed starter for 2023. Mayfield has historically struggled to push the ball to the boundary with consistency. That won’t bode well for Evans as his game is focused in those areas. 

Draft Instead:

• Tyler Lockett: Lockett has finished as WR16, WR13, WR8, WR16, and WR13 over the last 5 years
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba: An ultra-talented rookie wide receiver who out produced both Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave when the three played together at Ohio State. JSN has already created a long highlight reel of plays at training camp. He will be heavily involved as a rookie. 
• Jordan Addison: Jordan Addison will also be heavily involved as a rookie. There’s going to be a lot of passing volume in Minnesota with most of that funneled to Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson, and Jordan Addison.

Round 7: Quentin Johnston (ADP: 79.6)

Quentin Johnston got the sexy landing spot with the Chargers. His pairing with quarterback Justin Herbert has propelled him to a seventh round ADP. But that ADP seems to be ignoring the fact that Johnston is still behind both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in the pecking order. And despite him declaring himself the WR3 during spring camp, Johnston has yet to overtake Josh Palmer. It may be a while before he gets there. Early on in training, Johnston seems to be struggling with drops. It’s an issue that plagued him in college—he dropped eight passes in 13 games last season and dropped multiple passes at his pro day.   

Drops aside, Johnston wasn’t an overly impressive prospect, despite his first round draft capital. It was a slow progression to his 1,000-yard 2022 campaign and even that left a bit to be desired. He only averaged four receptions per game and his 18% touchdown share came in at about half of what we look for from incoming wide receiver prospects. Some want to crown him the next D.K. Metcalf or Mike Williams, but his play style just doesn’t fit that comp. Despite his 6-3 frame, Johnston is not a dominant contested catch guy. Instead, he tends to not high-point the ball, letting it come to him and opening it up to be played by the defender. 

Johnston will need to develop his route tree beyond what he showed at TCU if he’s going to command targets ahead of Palmer, never mind ahead of Keenan Allen or Mike Williams. Johnston’s tree in college focused a lot on vertical routes. He was known as a deep threat. Yet, his 4.55 40-time does not project to being able to be that type of player against NFL cornerbacks. He is certainly not ready for a full-time starting role in the NFL, making his round seven ADP quite baffling.

Draft Instead:

• David Montgomery 
• Rachaad White
• Dallas Goedert 

More: Managing Rookie Expectations: Tight Ends

Round 8: Kadarius Toney (ADP: 86.5)

Kadarius Toney’s career has gotten off to a terrible start. In two seasons, he has already missed 14 games with five separate injuries. Now he’s out again with a knee issue and is questionable for Week 1. In two years, he averages four targets per game, 2.9 receptions per game, and a whopping 31 receiving yards. 

He was not an impressive prospect coming out of Florida either. Some of the most important factors we look for in a wide receiver prospect are College Dominator Rating, College Target Share, and Breakout Age. Toney falls in the 30th-percentile or worse in each of those categories (PlayerProfiler). In fact, Toney didn’t see a double-digit target share until his final season at Florida.

It’s wild to see him still going off the board in the eighth round. His ADP is holding due to three things: first round draft capital, playing with Patrick Mahomes, and one fluky game in his rookie season. That’s it. There is no logical reason for him to be going this high. 

Draft Instead:

• Brandin Cooks
• Isiah Pacheco

Other Chiefs WRs:

• Skyy Moore (RD 9)
• Rashee Rice (RD 12)
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling (RD 13)

Round 9: Jameson Williams (ADP: 100.9)

The red flags are already stacking up for Jameson Williams just one year into his NFL career. First, he missed most of his rookie season while recovering from a college injury but was shockingly unproductive when he returned. But more on that later. Then he was suspended for six games to start his second season for violating the NFL’s gambling policy. He was injured and missed the first few practices of training camp. Now, he is struggling in camp with negative reports coming out almost daily. Williams has been struggling with drops and other issues in practice, including throwing a punch at a teammate. None of this is directly indicative of his on-field play necessarily, but the constant swirl of negativity around him at this early stage of his career is alarming.

Even when he was on the field as a rookie last season, Williams seemed lost and his production suffered. Williams was active for six games (Weeks 13-18). It was the most important stretch of the season for the Lions as they were vying for a playoff spot. Yet, Williams could barely crack the lineup. Over those six weeks, Williams never topped a 25% snap share, was targeted nine times, and caught just one pass. He never ran more than nine routes in a game and scored zero fantasy points in four of the six outings. 

We could chalk some of that up to the ACL recovery, sure. But Williams was far from a clean prospect entering the NFL. Remember, he only had one productive season in college and he had to transfer to make that happen. He couldn’t get on the field in his first two seasons and combined for just 15 receptions over that time. 

I’m not ready to declare him a bust just yet, but all signs are pointing that direction. That’s why I’m not even considering him in the single digit rounds of 2023 fantasy football drafts. He’s already going to tie up a roster spot for six weeks because of the suspension. I could swallow that if I knew I was getting a productive player when he came back, but I’m really skeptical of that at this point. I will use my draft capital and precious roster spot elsewhere. I’m fine if I miss out on a (unlikely) breakout. I can always draft him next year.

Draft Instead:

• Antonio Gibson
• Skyy Moore

Round 10: Brian Robinson (ADP: 110.5)

Brian Robinson finished his rookie season with 205 carries for 797 yards. That’s an underwhelming 3.9 yards per carry average. Yards per carry is an overrated stat but we can point to other metrics that show just how inefficient Robinson was. For example, he reached 15 yards or more on less than 3% of his carries, ranking 46th among qualifying running backs. He was also No. 47 in yards created per touch and No. 126 in expected points added (PlayerProfiler). Robinson had just one week as a top-12 scorer for fantasy and finished the year with an average of 9.6 points per game which scored as the RB36.

Robinson will have to contend with Antonio Gibson for touches in the Washington backfield. Gibson has been receiving praise and hype from the Commanders coaches all offseason and he’s expected to take on an expanded role. With or without Gibson in the picture, Robinson is not a threat to create plays in the passing game. He only caught nine passes in his rookie season. 

With an underwhelming athletic profile, zero receiving production, and inefficiency between the tackles, Robinson is looking very dependent on scoring touchdowns if he’s going to be playable in fantasy football. Unfortunately, though, he plays in a below average offense that is not expected to score a lot of points so the touchdown opportunities will be anything but plentiful. And with the Commanders playing in comeback mode often, the volume of between-the -twenties carries will vary week-to-week.

Draft Instead:

• Damien Harris
• Samaje Perine

Who are the worst picks in 2023 fantasy football drafts in your opinion? Jump in our Discord and join the discussion!

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