Why The Texans Stack Will Be Lethal In 2020
People are discounting the Texans after a very questionable trade, but there is value to be had in Houston at every position. Whilst he may not be the best negotiator, Bill O’Brien is a damn good coach, and he has plenty of talent to work with.
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The Johnsons Are Both Sneaky Bargains
David Johnson was once the Christian McCaffrey of Fantasy Football. A workhorse who can catch and can score touchdowns with ease. Since his 2016 explosion, he’s “fallen off the wagon”. Despite this, in 2018 he was the RB9, and with his 322 fantasy points in PPR, that would have placed him as RB2 last season ahead of Aaron Jones.
The power of being able to catch the ball out of the backfield is a cheat code in fantasy football. Whilst Johnson has been anything but efficient over the last few years, his major injury was a wrist dislocation. With only minor injuries to his leg and back, the 28-year-old, yes he’s only 28, has been focusing on getting healthier.
See Where All The Texans Stack Up In Our Rankings!
A season close to his 2018 campaign is possible for the former superstar. 200-plus carries with 50-plus receptions at his career averages, along with six to eight TDs overall gives him 222 fantasy points in PPR formats, good for RB14. He’s a quality RB2 in all formats with the potential to finish as a high-end RB2. Don’t underestimate the power of volume and receiving yards.
With DeAndre Hopkins out of town, which #Texans WR will benefit the most in 2020?
🎥JJ Zachariason answered that question when he joined us on our YouTube channel recently.
🎬Full Interview: https://t.co/YTOkQMhH0I pic.twitter.com/3L2y5TtAnb
— Yards Per Fantasy (@YardsPer) July 21, 2020
Speaking of receiving yards, the other Johnson in the Texans’ backfield, Duke, is a guy that I’ve loved since he was in Cleveland. In 2017 he was absolutely fed targets and finished as RB11 in PPR scoring formats. He’s a receiver in a running back’s body. I’m a firm believer that he deserved to be the Texans’ RB1, but with David in town, Duke is relegated to continuing as a receiving back.
As a hand-cuff, Duke offers huge upside if David misses time. Taking both is a great idea, especially in a Texans’ stack, because even if David doesn’t miss games, Duke can produce as a low-end RB2 or strong flex. Over the last two seasons, Duke has been targeted exactly 62 times and even doubled his rushing attempts. He’s currently ranked as RB44, which is his floor.
Strong Receiving Corps
Whilst the loss of Hopkins is painful, the Texans have brought in Randall Cobb who had a sneakily good season in Dallas last season, and have two strong receiving backs. Brandin Cooks is in line for WR1, but is being taken as WR36. A Hopkins-sized number of targets isn’t feasible, but 100-plus targets certainly is a possibility. Cooks is talented, and a great value at WR35. The former Ram has been overlooked for years, and this is the year he can show he deserves to be a team’s WR1.
Related | Why I’m Buying Brandin Cooks In All Of My Leagues (And You Should Too)
Will Fuller has been a tease in the NFL. He shows flashes of potential, using his speed to burn defenders but then either disappears in games or gets injured. A boom or bust type of player, he’s the opposite to Cooks, who has a more consistent presence on the field.
Both are going in the 30’s amongst receivers. If you’re a risky player, go for Fuller and he could turn in an amazing season. Otherwise, pick up Cooks who should challenge to be a high-end WR2 this season. Either way, both are great values.
TE2 Heaven
Last year, the Texans had two tight-ends in the top 25, Jordan Akins and Darren Fells. Akins had the yards, Fells had the touchdowns. All of the Texans tight-ends are going later than TE40 in drafts. It’s unlikely the Texans have two TE2’s next year, but one of Fells, Kahale Warring, and Akins will emerge as the alpha in the tight-end room.
Fells has the experience and ability to work in the red-zone.
Akins is a reliable pass-catcher who showed flashes last season.
Warring is an athletic monster who missed the entire 2019 season.
Fells and Warring are my choices as Fells dominated the red-zone touches last season, whereas Warring is more athletic than Akins. One of these guys will be a TE2, and there’s a strong chance both end the season as TE2s.
Watson Is A Top 5 QB
With so many weapons on Houston’s offense, Deshaun Watson is set to have an MVP-caliber season. He’s talented enough to do it. His supporting cast is built to help him, as he was fourth in the league in deep-ball attempts. Cooks, Fuller, and Stills all have elite speed. When none of his receivers can create separation, Watson can check it down to one of the Johnson’s, or just run himself as he is a great athlete.
The receiving talent on the Texans’ roster is well suited to Watson’s ability to sling the ball. He’s well above average when he’s throwing 20-plus yards downfield, completing nearly 60-percent of his passes between 20 and 25 yards, a better rate than Josh Allen had on all of his throws.
See Where The Texans O-Line Stack Up In Our 2020 Offensive Line Rankings
Mahomes and Jackson are QB1 and QB2. However, Watson is a better thrower than Prescott and Murray, and could easily run for as many yards. Therefore, the loss of Hopkins may not affect him as much as fantasy football twitter believes. Less Hopkins means defenses can’t focus on his first read every play. They have to respect all of the speed on the field, plus account for backs and his ability to run.
The Cheapest Stack
If you snapped up Watson, David Johnson, Brandin Cooks, and one of the Texans’ tight-ends, you have a potential league-winning stack. Houston has adjusted to throwing the ball more, a by-product of being behind more often, and with an elite quarterback, why wouldn’t you?
Watson is one of the league’s best. Losing Nuk could be a blessing in disguise, as defenses adjust to facing a deep receiving core where anyone could be the hot hand. This stack is a league-winner that’s mispriced.
Take them at their ADP and they’ll carry you into your league’s playoffs and you’ll look like a genius.
