The Dynasty Impact For Each Fantasy Relevant Player From The 2024 NFL Draft
2024 NFL Draft Dynasty Impact
The 2024 NFL Draft is in the books. Now it’s time to figure out what all the draft capital and landing spots mean for dynasty fantasy football and our rookie drafts.
We want to hear your opinions on the dynasty impact of these landing spots, so join us on Discord and let’s discuss!
1.01 Caleb Williams, QB, Bears
We’ve known Caleb Williams was going to be the 1.01 for months. He is well deserving of the selection. Williams might just be the best quarterback prospect to enter the NFL since Andrew Luck. He is a dynamic playmaker who can make all the throws from both inside the pocket as well as on the move. He is also a threat to gain chunks with his legs.
The Bears have done everything they can to build up the supporting cast around him and give him the best possible chance to succeed, something so many other franchises have failed to do over the years. They continued that with the No. 9 pick by selecting Washington wide receiver Rome Odunze and adding him to an offense that already included DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, D’Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, and Cole Kmet. They’ve even invested in the offensive line over the last couple offseasons. Williams has a Patrick Mahomes-like ceiling and he could be a cornerstone piece of your dynasty team for the next 10 years. He is the locked-in 1.01 in superflex rookie drafts and should be considered beginning around the 1.05 in single quarterback leagues.
1.02 Jayden Daniels, QB, Commanders
Jayden Daniels quietly lands in a good spot. He has quality weapons around him in Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Austin Ekeler, and Brian Robinson. Sure, it’s no Chicago but it’s also not the wasteland of New England either. Daniels has the arm to make all the throws and his legs give him the highest fantasy upside of any quarterback in the class. He has plenty of experience and should be ready to play right away. He will utilize his legs a ton early in his career as he adapts to the NFL game. That means there’s a real chance he outscores even Caleb Williams in 2024. Daniels should be the QB2 in dynasty rookie drafts, especially in single quarterback leagues. Draft him in the top-3 or 4 picks in superflex formats.
1.03 Drake Maye, QB, Patriots
Drake Maye is in for a challenge. He lands with the Patriots who have one of the worst supporting casts in the NFL. They need to upgrade the offensive line, they need to add pass catchers, and they need to give Drake Maye time to develop. Out of all the early quarterbacks, Maye would probably benefit the most from riding the bench for a bit before getting thrown into the fire. He can get coached up, work on improving some of his mechanics issues, and learn the system before getting thrown into the dumpster fire that is the Patriots offense.
If things go right for Maye and he develops into his physical traits, he has about as high a ceiling as anyone. He can get to the Josh Allen/Justin Herbert spectrum of quarterback play. He has the arm talent and he has the athleticism to be a difference maker with his legs as well. As things stand now, Maye is the QB3 in the class and should be drafted in the 1.04-1.06 range in dynasty superflex rookie drafts.
1.04 Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Cardinals
Marvin Harrison Jr. was always the chalk pick to the Cardinals at the 1.04. He fits the mold of a prototypical alpha X-wide receiver. He is going to be a big-bodied playmaker for quarterback Kyler Murray who will appreciate Harrison’s ability to contort his body to track and attack the football in traffic. Harrison immediately slides in as the top passing catcher in Arizona and should command a high volume of targets as a rookie. He compares favorably to AJ Green and Justin Jefferson—both of which had incredible rookie seasons and it’s likely we see something similar from Harrison. Harrison will be a top-10 wide receiver in the NFL for a long time and should be taken with the first overall pick in non-superflex dynasty rookie drafts.
1.06 Malik Nabers, WR, Giants
The initial reaction to Malik Nabers to the Giants from the fantasy community has been mostly negative. However, Nabers is entering a very fantasy-friendly situation. The Giants have one of the weakest receiver rooms in the NFL and tight end Darren Waller appears likely to retire. That leaves Nabers as the clear, uncontested top target for Daniel Jones in 2024. And sure, it’s still Daniel Jones and of course it would have been nice to see Nabers paired with a better quarterback, but the target volume is going to be very high. With Nabers’ skill set, he will do the most with his targets. He is incredible after the catch, meaning he will always be gaining additional yardage and the team is surely going to feed him high-percentage manufactured touches like screens and jet sweeps as well. Nabers is in line for a 130 target rookie season and is likely going to be a top-20 scorer in fantasy football. A Ja’Marr Chase-like rookie campaign is in the range of outcomes.
1.08 Michael Penix Jr., QB, Falcons
What in the world? Did the Falcons forget that they signed Kirk Cousins? Did they see Matt Ryan retire last week and think they had to replace him? Who knows what they were thinking but this looks like one of the more egregious draft picks we have seen in a long time. Penix is now tumbling down dynasty superflex draft boards which is ironic considering he actually got top-10 draft capital which almost nobody was predicting. But unless Cousins completely flames out in Atlanta or his rehab from last season’s achilles injury does not go as planned, Penix is unlikely to see the field until 2026 at the earliest. Even then, that’s only two years into Cousins’ four-year, $180 million contract. At that point, Penix will be 26-years old. And if Cousins plays out the full four years, Penix will be pushing 30 by the time he gets his shot.
Even if we’re looking at this situation wrong and the Falcons have a plan to start Penix earlier than expected, his fantasy football ceiling is still just as a QB2. It’s unlikely he will ever crack the top-12 quarterbacks on a per game basis. We saw him play for six seasons in college. We know his game. We know he wants to get the ball out quick and he doesn’t run (despite the athleticism to do so).
Considering both angles, Penix should be valued between the 1.10-2.05 range in superflex rookie drafts, depending on team situation.
1.09 Rome Odunze, WR, Bears
The Bears have done an incredible job setting up new quarterback Caleb Williams for success. That was true even before they used the No. 9 pick on Washington’s Rome Odunze. While the pick is fantastic for Williams’ outlook, there are certainly questions about Odunze’s early-career role considering he is walking into a wide receiver room that already has two WR1s in DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. He will likely be the third wide receiver which will make it difficult for a true rookie season breakout. But Allen is a free agent after the 2024 season, so it should be wheels up for Odunze in 2025. We’ll still get to see enough from him before then to get a good feel for what his role will be and what his fantasy scoring potential looks like heading into that season.
Of course, the risk is they re-sign Allen, reminiscent of the Tyler Lockett for Jaxon Smith-Njigba situation in Seattle. However, we believe Odunze is a better talent than JSN and will be better equipped to overcome his target competition in Chicago especially considering the top-10 draft capital.
Still, this doesn’t change Odunze’s ranking in dynasty. He should still be considered the WR3 in the class and a great pick in the first round of rookie drafts. Be patient with him in 2024, and be ready for a breakout in 2025. He is an incredible talent and would be the WR1 in a lot of other draft classes. Plus he will be tethered to Caleb Williams for the foreseeable future which should be seen as a positive.
1.10 JJ McCarthy, QB, Vikings
JJ McCarthy was the guy all along for the Vikings and they only had to trade up one spot to get him. McCarthy will, in theory, compete with Sam Darnold for the starting job to begin the 2024 season. However, it’s likely we see McCarthy start Week 1 given he was a top-10 pick and coming from a pro style offense at Michigan. The learning curve won’t be quite as steep for him as some other rookie quarterbacks we’ve seen over the years, even if he wasn’t a high volume passer in college. He still started a bunch of games so he has experience plus the physical tools to be the team’s best option right out the gate. He will work closely with head coach and former NFL quarterback Kevin O’Connell much like he did with Jim Harbaugh. Worst case scenario, I think we see McCarthy by Week 4.
McCarthy is blessed with a quarterback-friendly offense and weapons that include Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, and Aaron Jones. Long-term, McCarthy will give us similar seasons to what we saw from Kirk Cousins over the last two years in this offense. O’Connell wants to throw the ball at a high rate. We might not see that as much in 2024 as they take it easy with the rookie quarterback, but if he passes all the tests in 2024, we’re going to see a significant rise in pass attempts in 2025 and beyond.
McCarthy is set up beautifully for success and should be the QB4 off the board in dynasty rookie drafts. In superflex, he should be in consideration beginning at pick 1.06.
1.12 Bo Nix, QB, Broncos
Bo Nix is the distributor of the football that Sean Payton was looking for. He will run the offense as designed and play point guard from the pocket. He won’t necessarily be a difference maker or make plays off script, but he can do enough to run an efficient offense and get the ball into the hands of his playmakers. That doesn’t sound too appealing for fantasy football purposes but if he can help propel productive seasons for Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims, etc, we will be happy with that. Nix is the rookie QB5 for dynasty purposes and should be a borderline first/second round pick in superflex rookie drafts.
1.13 Brock Bowers, TE, Raiders
The Raiders feel like a weird landing spot for Brock Bowers. Maybe it’s just because not a lot of mock drafts had Vegas as a landing spot for the Georgia tight end, or maybe it’s because the team used a second round pick on the position last year. Either way, it’s certainly not the sexiest spot for Bowers. In the short-term he will be overshadowed by alpha receiver Davante Adams and will have to compete for the middle of the field looks with steady-eddy Jakobi Meyers. He will also need to overcome subpar quarterback play, given the team is in line to roll out a combination of Gardner Minshew and Aiden O’Connell in 2024.
However, Bowers is less quarterback dependent than a guy like Kyle Pitts, for example. That’s because Bowers thrives in the short area and the quick game. He also has the versatility to take carries as well. Bowers will catch a pass in the flat and turn up field and work his way for an 8-10 yard gain. That’s his game, whereas Pitts is more of a down the field guy who operates in the seams and out wide, which is much more reliant on the quarterback than the play call.
It’s very realistic to project Bowers for a top-10 tight end season as a rookie despite the quarterback and offensive environment concerns. He may slip below Xavier Worthy in some rookie rankings but he is still well worthy a first round selection.
1.23 Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jaguars
Brian Thomas Jr. got the draft capital and landed with a team that could use another pass-catcher. However, his skill set feels a bit redundant with free agent addition Gabe Davis. These are both big-bodied X-receivers who are vertical game and red zone specialists. Now, Thomas is more athletic and his ceiling outcome is far better than Davis, but it’s going to be interesting to see how Thomas fits into this offense and what his role is versus Davis. With that said, we still have to rank Thomas as a top-5 or 6 wide receiver in the rookie class, at least after the first round. Trevor Lawrence has proven to be a quality distributor who can propel his pass catchers to productive seasons. There is some target competition with Davis, Christian Kirk, and tight end Evan Engram, but Thomas has the skill set to develop into a premier playmaker on the outside.
He will also serve as a top red zone target for Lawrence. He won’t match the 17 touchdowns that he scored at LSU last season, but Thomas could have multiple 10+ touchdown seasons in his career if everything hits.
As a rookie, it’s probably going to be a slow start. With the target competition, the redundancy with Davis, plus some areas of his game that we identified as needing development pre draft, Thomas may be one of these guys that waits until year two to really hit. Hopefully, we will see enough flashes of his playmaking ability in 2024 for him to at least retain value heading into a potential 2025 breakout.
1.28 Xavier Worthy, WR, Chiefs
We could not have asked for anything better for Xavier Worthy. He got the first round draft capital and he is matched up with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid for the foreseeable future. This is a clear effort by the Chiefs to bring back some of what they had with Tyreek Hill and to thwart the difficult shell coverages that defenses have been throwing at them for the last two seasons. Between Worthy and free agent addition Marquise Brown, the Chiefs offense is in line to return to its 2018-2021 form. Worthy is going to be a big part of that. He’s not Tyreek Hill despite the comparisons, but there are enough similarities between their play styles to think Worthy can give us 75% of the production we saw in the prime Mahomes to Hill years.
Worthy may not be a consistent volume commander but he will absolutely have week-winning performances that can make a huge difference in fantasy football. He will be used all over the field and will especially thrive on crossing routes in this offense. It’s realistic to picture him having the third-most productive rookie season out of this year’s class of wide receivers. He now jumps ahead of Brian Thomas Jr. and Brock Bowers in rookie draft rankings. He is the WR4 in the class.
1.31 Ricky Pearsall, WR, 49ers
Ricky Pearsall was a surprise to land in the first round. It certainly leads to speculation that one of Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel will be traded in the near future. With that assumption, Pearsall will project as the team’s No. 2 wide receiver. He will have versatile alignment, playing some slot and some Z. He very much feels like a Kyle Shanahan-type receiver. Not only does he have that versatility, but Pearsall is a crafty route-runner with a high football IQ and toughness. He knows how to find space and get open and will be a reliable chain-mover with some playmaking ability. Target competition aside, Pearsall lands in a great situation with a creative playcaller who utilizes a bunch of pre-snap motion and will find ways to maximize Pearsall’s strengths.
Looking ahead to 2024, we can project Pearsall for a target share somewhere between 10-15%, depending on what happens with the veteran wide receivers on the roster. Even if one of Aiyuk or Samuel gets moved, he will still have to compete for targets with George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey, plus whichever receiver stays, in a run-heavy offense.
Still, Pearsall is a “ready to contribute right now” player with first round draft capital and a fun skill set. He is worth a pick in the early second round of superflex dynasty rookie drafts.
1.32 Xavier Legette, WR, Panthers
The Panthers traded up one pick to select Xavier Legette with the last pick in the first round. Despite Legette saying that the team told him they’d draft him at 33, it was still a surprise to see him drafted this high. Maybe they wanted to secure that fifth-year option because, based on his college history, it might take five years before they get any sort of production out of him. Either way, it feels like doubling down on last year’s mistake of drafting a similar archetype wide receiver with a similarly unproductive college resume in Jonathan Mingo. The first round capital will steam Legette’s rookie draft ADP much higher than it should go which makes him an easy fade. This is this year’s Quentin Johnston. You’ve been warned.
2.01 Keon Coleman, WR, Bills
No matter how you feel about the Keon Coleman profile, this is an all-time landing spot for the Florida State wide receiver. With Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis off the roster, and just Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir left, the path to a productive rookie season has been paved for Coleman. Not only does he have little competition for targets, but Coleman will also have the privilege of playing with one of the league’s best quarterbacks and in one of the most pass-heavy offenses. Coleman steps in as the favorite to be second in line for targets in Buffalo behind tight end Dalton Kincaid. Coleman will likely spend most of his time at X which could be a problem if he doesn’t improve his separation ability. Still, his big frame and contested catch ability will at least help him find a role as the Gabe Davis replacement—a downfield and red zone playmaker for Allen.
2.02 Ladd McConkey, WR, Chargers
The Chargers traded away Keenan Allen and released Mike Williams this offseason. That left just Josh Palmer and last year’s first round bust Quentin Johnston as the top wide receiver options in LA. Some speculated the Chargers would draft a wide receiver at No. 5, but they opted to wait until the second round where they traded up for Ladd McConkey. With the wide open receiver room, McConkey could legitimately lead the team in targets as a rookie. Even though his production profile was lacking and his ability to command volume in college was questionable, his skill set should translate well and be a fit with quarterback Justin Herbert. McConkey is a route running technician who creates quick separation—much like Keenan Allen. He’s certainly no Allen, but the areas in which they win are at least similar. McConkey will likely begin as more of a slot guy, before expanding his role to the Z position where he can really utilize his 4.39 speed.
The passing volume in Los Angeles will likely be near the bottom of the league in 2024, but McConkey should be high on the totem pole and will benefit from the efficiency of a quality passer like Herbert. We’ll likely see a lot of quick passes mixed in with crossing routes and zone beaters that will get McConkey open easy and give him an opportunity to create after the catch. His fantasy football ceiling is likely as a low-end WR2, we’ll probably get something in the WR35 range from him in 2024.
2.05 Ja’Lynn Polk, WR, Patriots
Ja’Lynn Polk has a chance to step in and be the Patriots WR1 from day one. He will have to compete with fellow rookie and fourth rounder Javon Baker as they join a receiving corps that includes Kendrick Bourne, DeMario Douglas, KJ Osborn, and Juju Smith-Schuster. Douglas will likely be the starting slot, while Polk, Bourne, and Baker will rotate in two-receiver sets. Polk will be a steady presence in the Patriots offense. He can win all over the field with reliable hands and an impressive contested catch ability. If he clicks with Drake Maye, it could be a fun rookie season and a solid connection for years to come. Polk should be drafted in the second round of rookie drafts. He has the upside to develop into a fantasy football WR2/3.
2.14 Jonathon Brooks, RB, Panthers
The Panthers seem confident in Jonathon Brooks’ ACL recovery. They moved up in the second round to make him the first running back off the board. After the Miles Sanders signing a year ago proved to be a catastrophic failure, they don’t appear ready for another season of the Chuba Hubbard show. Now, it could be a slow start for Brooks if he’s not ready for training camp which, given his ACL injury came in November, is a real possibility. If he is forced to miss camp, there’s a real danger of a Kendre Miller-like rookie season for Brooks. With no NFL experience and no opportunity for the coaches to see him in offseason practices or training camp, or preseason games, we can’t expect they’re just going to turn the keys to the backfield over to the rookie when he’s ready to go. It’s not the most likely outcome, but it’s in the range of possibilities.
With that said, it’s clear the Panthers view Jonathon Brooks as their RB1 of the future. Whenever he gets the opportunity, he will be a three-down workhorse in an offense that will likely lean on the running game. Remember, head coach Dave Canales was the offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay last season when Rachaad White received absolute bellcow usage so we know he’s not afraid to feed his all-purpose back. Brooks is looking like a top-20 dynasty running back. If he’s ready for camp, he can absolutely return RB2 production as a rookie.
2.20 Adonai Mitchell, WR, Colts
After Adonai Mitchell was projected to go round one in a bunch of mock drafts, he nearly slid out of the second. The landing spot wasn’t exactly ideal, either. Mitchell lands in an offense with one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the league. While Anthony Richardson can do plenty of damage with his arm, too, his legs are going to take a bunch of pass attempts out of the Colts offense. Less pass attempts means fewer targets to go around. And when he is passing, he will be looking to alpha wide receiver Michael Pittman.
And who’s to say that Mitchell will even be the No. 2 target? He certainly has the skill set to get there, but Josh Downs is still in the picture and it would be no surprise if he out-targets Mitchell. Mitchell can have a good career but it’s hard to see the path to heavy target volume anytime in the next three years. He could max out at WR3 level fantasy production. He’s becoming a fade in rookie drafts. He’s certainly slipping down the rankings from where he was pre-draft.
2.21 Ben Sinnott, TE, Commanders
Ben Sinnott adds a versatile weapon for rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. Sinnott will learn behind veteran Zach Ertz with a chance to overtake him as soon as this season. Once he’s comfortable in the offense, the Commanders can use Sinnott in-line, in the slot, and even line him up in the backfield. With the second round draft capital, Sinnott moves ahead of Ja’Tavion Sanders as the No. 2 tight end in the class.
3.01 Malachi Corley, WR, Jets
Malachi Corley is an intriguing fit with Aaron Rodgers and the Jets. Corley will compete with veteran Mike Williams to be Rodgers’ No. 2 wide receiver. Corley’s versatility and YAC ability make him a fun piece who can move around the offense and create advantageous matchups. He won’t be a volume commander early in his career, but there’s a chance Corley can find a role in the Jets offense as a situational playmaker and complimentary weapon. It can also go the other way. The concern is Rodgers’ need for perfection. He may feel more comfortable with Allen Lazard on the field over a rookie from Western Kentucky who’s game is built on yards after the catch and not nuanced routes.
3.02 Trey Benson, RB, Cardinals
Trey Benson may begin his career backing up James Conner, but landing with the Cardinals is one of the more underrated good landing spots of the 2024 draft. Conner is 29-years old and has played more than 13 games in a season just once in his career. Benson is absolutely going to get on the field as a rookie and will very likely start multiple games. That will give him enough of a chance to prove himself worthy of taking over for Conner full-time in 2025 when Conner becomes a free agent.
The Cardinals are shaping up to be one of the better offenses in the NFL with the additions of Marvin Harrison Jr and Benson to pair with Conner and Trey McBride as weapons for quarterback Kyler Murray. That will only enhance the ceiling outcome for Benson as we know good offenses are where RB1 seasons are born. Benson remains the RB1 in the 2024 class and should be drafted no worse than the RB2 (if you prefer Jonathon Brooks). He is a top-20 running back in dynasty and a first round pick in rookie drafts regardless of format.
3.16 Jermaine Burton, WR, Bengals
Jermaine Burton has a chance to be Joe Burrow’s WR3 from day one in Cincinnati. With Tyler Boyd off the roster, Burton will compete with Andre Iosivas and Charlie Jones for No. 3 duties. He doesn’t fit the traditional slot role, though, so it could be hard for him to be much more than a situational field stretcher early in his career. However, with Tee Higgins likely gone after 2024, the door will be open for Burton to become the team’s No. 2. That would breathe a ton of life into Burton’s dynasty value and fantasy football outlook. He brings a different skill set than Higgins, but Burton can develop into a quality outside weapon opposite Ja’Marr Chase. If you select him in rookie drafts, you’re doing it with an eye on 2025 and beyond.
3.19 Blake Corum, RB, Rams
Blake Corum will be in competition with Kyren Williams to lead the Rams backfield in touches. Corum will likely start as a complement to Williams, but between draft capital, pedigree, and skill, you don’t have to squint too hard to see a world where Corum winds up leading this backfield by the end of his rookie season. Williams is coming off a quality 2024 season from a fantasy football perspective, but the Rams are not playing fantasy football. If they think Corum does some things on an actual football field better than Williams, that would be enough to play their third round National Champion from Michigan more than fantasy gamers would like. Draft Corum as the RB3 in this class beginning as early as the mid-second round in dynasty rookie drafts.
3.20 Roman Wilson, WR, Steelers
Roman Wilson lands with the Steelers where he can immediately step into the Diontae Johnson role. He can do a lot of the things that Johnson did in Pittsburgh—get open quickly and easily, and dominate that 8-12 yard range. On top of that, Wilson has more speed and explosion than Johnson so his ceiling outcome is much higher.
3.25 MarShawn Lloyd, RB, Packers
MarShawn Lloyd got the Day 2 draft capital we were hoping for, but he lands in a backfield that added Josh Jacobs in free agency and brought back AJ Dillon. Now, Dillon doesn’t present a major hurdle to get over, but Jacobs has been a bellcow back for several seasons and appears locked into a similar role in Green Bay. There is an out on the Jacobs contract after 2024, so if you’re drafting Lloyd in dynasty, you are doing it with the hopes that it’s a one-and-done deal with Jacobs and Lloyd can ascend to the top spot in 2025. That would put him on the Rachaad White career path. Of course, there’s a real possibility that Jacobs tears it up in 2024 and the team brings him back for another run at it. But that’s the risk you will have to take. The talent and upside is still enough to draft Lloyd in the second round of rookie drafts.
3.29 Jalen McMillan, WR, Buccaneers
Jalen McMillan lands with the Buccaneers where he will compete with 2023 sixth rounder Trey Palmer to be the team’s WR3. This is a low-upside play.
3.37 Luke McCaffrey, WR, Commanders
There is an opportunity to be had in the Washington wide receiver room with Curtis Samuel out and no one of consequence to replace him. In steps Luke McCaffrey who will be added to the mix along with Olamide Zaccheaus, Dyami Brown, Jamison Crowder, and others vying to be the third option on the depth chart. With third round draft capital, McCaffrey is a post-draft riser and can be considered in the third round of rookie drafts.
4.01 Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE, Panthers
The Panthers continue their search for quality receiving options for quarterback Bryce Young. Ja’Tavion Sanders, while still in need of some development, can help the cause. He was the fourth tight end off the board and is slipping down draft boards, but Sanders is still worthy of a late round pick in rookie drafts if you’re targeting a tight end.
4.02 Troy Franklin, WR, Broncos
Troy Franklin was the free-faller of the draft. It didn’t take long to realize the NFL didn’t like Franklin nearly as much as the fantasy football community. The silver lining is, he will be paired with his college quarterback—Bo Nix—on a team in need of wide receiver help. With Jerry Jeudy traded to the Browns and Marvin Mims coming off a disappointing rookie season, Franklin has a chance to slide right in as the team’s No. 2 wide receiver opposite Courtland Sutton. If that happens and he rekindles his connection with Nix, Franklin could be in for a productive rookie campaign. Still, there are plenty of question marks around his profile and we cannot ignore the lack of draft capital no matter how you felt about him pre draft. With that in mind, Franklin belongs in the third round of superflex rookie drafts.
4.07 Theo Johnson, TE, Giants
Theo Johnson landed in a spot that will give him an opportunity to compete for a starting position assuming Darren Waller retires. In an offense in a transition phase, Johnson provides athleticism and playmaking upside.
4.10 Javon Baker, WR, Patriots
Javon Baker was the second of two wide receivers drafted by the Patriots as part of the team’s effort to completely revamp the offense. Baker joins Ja’Lynn Polk as a new weapon for new quarterback Drake Maye. Despite being drafted two full rounds after Polk, Baker has a shot to be the more productive of the two. With just Hunter Henry, Demario Douglas, KJ Osborn, Kendrick Bourne, and Juju Smith-Schuster as the other pass-catching options in the offense, it’s not crazy to think Baker leads New England in receiving as a rookie. Baker will slot in as the team’s X-receiver opposite Polk while Douglas mans the slot.
A big-armed quarterback who is not afraid to throw 50/50 balls like Drake Maye is a perfect fit for Baker’s play style. He will give the Patriots the first true outside vertical threat they have had in years. Baker deserves consideration beginning in the second round of dynasty rookie drafts.
4.13 Devontez Walker, WR, Ravens
Devontez Walker lands in Baltimore where he will serve as a situational deep threat in a low-volume passing offense. With Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers established as the top target earners, it’s hard to envision a path to any sort of consistent volume for Walker. Maybe take a few swings on him at the end of best ball drafts, but that’s about where his contributions to fantasy football will end for now.
4.20 Jaylen Wright, RB, Dolphins
This is a sweet landing spot for Jaylen Wright. Sure, in theory it’s a crowded backfield, but you don’t have to squint too hard to see a path to fantasy production. All that is standing in his way of a significant workload is a tiny Devon Achane, who suffered multiple injuries as a rookie, and a 32-year old Raheem Mostert who has had a laundry list of injuries throughout his career. And who’s to say Wright doesn’t beat out those guys anyway? There are few teams that know how to maximize speed and explosion better than Mike McDaniel and the Miami Dolphins. They will be able to accentuate his strengths and mask his weaknesses as well as any organization. This is a dream landing spot for anyone who is a fan of Wright and his upside. He remains a top-5 running back in this class.
4.23 Cade Stover, TE, Texans
Cade Stover reunited with his former Ohio State quarterback CJ Stroud. Their old connection may have to wait as the team re-signed starting tight end Dalton Schultz to a three-year extension this offseason.
4.25 Bucky Irving, RB, Buccaneers
Bucky Irving was drafted in the fourth round to compete for the Chase Edmonds role. He offers little fantasy football value outside of a Rachaad White injury. Even then, he’s not offering much beyond a limited receiving role.
4.27 Will Shipley, RB, Eagles
Will Shipley will compete with Kenneth Gainwell for the rights to back up Saquon Barkley. If he is able to beat out Gainwell, which is no guarantee, then Shipley would make for an intriguing handcuff in fantasy football. He has the all-purpose skill set to be an every down back and he’s not coming off the field on passing downs if he’s ever thrust into an RB1 job. The contingent upside is certainly juicy, but that’s about the most we can hope for from Shipley for the foreseeable future.
4.28 Ray Davis, RB, Bills
The Bills were a favorite to land a running back at some point during the draft and they chose Ray Davis to be the guy. Davis will fill a role the team has been trying to solve for a few seasons now. They brought in a number of big-bodied backs last year like Damien Harris, Latavius Murray, and Leonard Fournette. Murray had moderate success but Davis is 10 years younger and ready to take over. He will pair well with James Cook as the team’s RB2.
Davis will also project as the team’s top running back at the goal line. Even with quarterback Josh Allen stealing some of those looks, the Bills offense is good enough to provide plenty of touchdown scoring opportunities for a guy like Davis. We could see some opportunities in the passing game for Davis as well. James Cook is an overrated receiver and Davis caught 94 balls at Kentucky with a solid receiving skill set. There’s a chance he at least eats into Cook’s work on passing downs.
This is quietly a really strong landing spot for Ray Davis. Continue drafting him in the third round of your rookie drafts. He may not have the ceiling of some of the other backs around his ADP, but he has an opportunity in one of the league’s best offenses and the skill set to be fantasy relevant right away.
4.29 Isaac Guerendo, RB, 49ers
Isaac Guerendo is a fantastic fit in the Kyle Shanahan offense. His speed and explosiveness will pair well with the 49ers outside zone rushing scheme. Of course, Guerendo will begin his career behind Christian McCaffrey but he has a legitimate chance of overtaking Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason as the team’s No. 2 running back. Guerendo is everything the Niners have been looking for at running back for years. He has the speed and explosion of a Raheem Mostert with the size and power that they tried to capture with the Trey Sermon pick. Guerendo has game-breaking ability and it will be fun to see what happens when he gets his opportunity. At minimum, he can become a high-end handcuff to McCaffrey. Guerendo should be a priority pick in the third round of every rookie draft.
4.31 Jared Wiley, TE, Chiefs
Right when you thought maybe the Chiefs just drafted Travis Kelce’s successor, they ink Kelce to a two-year contract extension. Wiley offers intriguing long term upside, but until then he is probably going to be a roster clogger. He’s probably not worth the taxi spot.
4.34 Braelon Allen, RB, Jets
Not only did Braelon Allen slide past Day 2, but he landed in one of the worst situations of any rookie running back. Breece Hall is fully established as the Jets bellcow running back. Allen comes in with sights on the RB2 job but he will still have to fend off fellow rookie Isaiah Davis and last year’s draft pick Israel Abanikanda. There’s little doubt he can do that, but that still means that best case scenario is Allen is in the Dalvin Cook role from last year. Allen will provide little value beyond backup duties and the occasional goal line or short yardage carry. He is a full-blown handcuff in fantasy football and shouldn’t be considered until at least the third round of dynasty rookie drafts. It’s quite the fall for a guy that some people had as their pre-draft RB1.
4.35 Jacob Cowing, WR, 49ers
Jacob Cowing is a fun prospect who landed in a fun landing spot. Unfortunately, he may not be so fun to roster in fantasy football. In an offense that doesn’t have a ton of passing volume but is loaded with high-end pass catchers, it’s nearly impossible for a guy like Cowing to be able to earn enough touches to be fantasy relevant.
5.07 Anthony Gould, WR, Colts
Anthony Gould is the second of two wide receivers (Adonai Mitchell) to be drafted by the Colts. He will be buried on the depth chart behind Michael Pittman Jr, Josh Downs, Mitchell, Alec Pierce, and perhaps others. Gould feels like more of a special teams selection rather than a major offensive contributor. He can be ignored outside of the deepest dynasty leagues.
5.12 Audric Estime, RB, Broncos
Audric Estime has an opportunity to be the RB2 in Denver. He’s a between-the-tackles grinder who doesn’t offer a ton of upside. He’s a quality runner, though, so if he ever earns a starting opportunity, Estime could produce low-end RB2 numbers in fantasy football. For that reason, he is worth consideration in the late rounds of dynasty rookie drafts as a potential handcuff or spot starter. He could take the Alexander Mattison career path, and that’s not a bad thing.
5.15 Spencer Rattler, QB, Saints
Spencer Rattler fell farther than many expected, but he lands in a spot that could eventually earn him starting opportunities. Derek Carr seems to be on the downside of his career and the team will likely be looking for his replacement within the next two years. That probably won’t be Rattler, but he will have an opportunity to impress the coaches and develop with the hopes of getting his shot. He’s an option in superflex formats only.
5.17 Ainias Smith, WR, Eagles
Ainias Smith has a long road to fantasy relevance. However, the Eagles do have an opening for their WR3 job after the offseason departure of Quez Watkins. Unless you consider DeVante Paker a lock for the job, the door is open for someone else to step up in that offense. Either way, that’s not likely to be a very fantasy relevant role without an AJ Brown or Devonta Smith injury. Smith is probably not worth using a rookie pick on at this time, but keep an eye on this position battle during training camp and preseason.
5.21 Jamari Thrash, WR, Browns
Jamari Thrash will compete for a depth role in Cleveland.
5.30 Rasheen Ali, RB, Ravens
Rasheen Ali joins what is suddenly looking like a crowded Ravens running back room. With Derrick Henry entrenched as the starter, Ali will compete with Justice Hill and Keaton Mitchell for change-of-pace duties. With his receiving skills and Henry’s lack of, Ali will have a chance to earn a third down role as early as 2024.
5.31 Tyrone Tracy Jr, RB, Giants
Landing with the Giants is a great spot for Tyrone Tracy Jr. The backfield is devoid of talent after losing Saquon Barkley in free agency, only to replace him with Devin Singletary. While Singletary did an adequate job in Houston last season, he is not exactly immune to some competition. The other running backs on the roster are Eric Gray, Gary Brightwell, Jashaun Corbin, and Deon Jackson. It’s not hard to see a world where Tracy winds up with a significant opportunity as a rookie. As a converted wide receiver, Tracy can jump right into a pass-catching role out of the backfield with a chance to expand that role over the course of the season. He is going to fly under the radar in rookie drafts but Tracy should be high on your list of priorities to target in the third or fourth round.
5.38 Isaiah Davis, RB, Jets
Isaiah Davis was a Yards Per Fantasy favorite pre-draft sleeper. That got squashed when he landed with the Jets, who not only roster one of the league’s best bellcow running backs, but also used a pick on a back (Braelon Allen) one round earlier. It’s a long path to relevancy for Isaiah Davis but it’s not crazy to think he could beat out Allen and Israel Abanikanda for the RB2 role. Don’t take him off your boards just yet.
6.05 Kimani Vidal, RB, Chargers
Jim Harbaugh got his Blake Corum. While he had a chance to take the actual Blake Corum earlier, Vidal provides tremendous value at a three round discount with a similar build and and skill set. Vidal is an all-purpose running back with the size and athletic traits to lead an NFL backfield. He runs hard on every carry, just like Corum. He was highly productive during his career at Troy and he doesn’t face major competition in the Chargers backfield. He will likely begin down the depth chart but with only Gus Edwards, JK Dobbins, who is coming off multiple serious lower body injuries, and Isaiah Spiller in his way, it’s not hard to see Vidal ascending quickly.
Vidal has all the makings of a breakout candidate from the late rounds of rookie drafts. We know the Chargers want to run the ball a ton. That has been made clear with every move they have made this offseason. And that opens the door for multiple fantasy relevant running backs to come from this backfield. With Justin Herbert at quarterback and a solid offensive line paving the way, there are going to be a lot of points to be had. Vidal will do very well if he gets the chance to be one of the top dogs. It’s not crazy to think he could average 10+ touches per game as a rookie. Out of all the players drafted on Day 3, Vidal is one of the top targets for dynasty rookie drafts. He becomes a realistic option as early as the late second round.
6.06 Jha’Quan Jackson, WR, Titans
Jha’Quan Jackson has a long road to fantasy relevance. His best bet is to latch on as a punt returner and gadget guy.
6.08 Malik Washington, WR, Dolphins
Malik Washington sliding to the sixth round was a bit disappointing, but landing with the Dolphins almost makes up for it. The Dolphins are in great need for a third pass-catcher to emerge in that offense after Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. And if anyone is going to be able to maximize Washington’s skill set, it is Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins. Washington will compete with veteran Braxton Berrios and fellow rookie Tahj Washington for the starting slot role in Miami. Washington might not have the highest ceiling, but he’s a fun prospect who landed on a fun team.
6.09 Johnny Wilson, WR, Eagles
In their post-draft comments, Howie Roseman and Nick Siriani insisted that Johnny Wilson will remain a wide receiver. Siriani said “He can run the full route tree… all of his production came on outside routes… He is unusual.” Wilson remains a developmental asset. If you’re going to draft a wide receiver at the end of your rookie draft, Wilson is the guy because he has far more upside than any other receivers at his ADP.
6.10 Jase McClellan
Jase McClellan is behind Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier in Atlanta. It’s possible we never hear from him again.
6.17 Joe Milton, QB, Patriots
Bazooka Joe landed with the Patriots where he will compete with veterans Jacoby Brissett and Bailey Zappe for the backup job behind No. 3 pick Drake Maye. It’s likely we see Zappe moved at some point before the start of the season and the Pats keep Milton as the developmental QB3. Milton is one of the most fun quarterback projects we’ve seen in recent years. It’s unlikely he ever develops to the point of starting games at the NFL level, but he’ll surely be fun to watch in preseason games and training camp clips.
6.32 Dylan Laube, RB, Raiders
It was disappointing to see Dylan Laube fall as far as the end of the sixth round, but he landed in a situation that will allow him to compete for an early role. Zamir White and Alexander Mattison top the Raiders running back depth chart currently. Neither back has done enough to think they are immune to being supplanted. They’re also not known for their pass-catching chops. Both White and Mattison are between-the-tackles grinders who are best used as first and second down backs. That’s where the door opens for Laube.
Only a 31-year old Ameer Abdullah stands in the way of passing downs work. Laube has a chance to impress coaches during training camp enough for them to cut Abdullah and turn the receiving work over to him. Considering Laube caught 117 passes and averaged 10 yards per reception over the last two seasons at New Hampshire, it’s not hard to see him beating out Abdullah. That means we could get an RB3/4 season from him as a rookie. Laube was a top target at the end of rookie drafts before the NFL Draft. Despite sliding a bit further than we had hoped, he continues to be a late round dynasty target. Remember, Austin Ekeler once went undrafted. Laube’s not Ekeler, but they are cut from a similar mold.
6.37 Jordan Whittington, WR, Rams
Jordan Whittington is not worth consideration in rookie drafts at this time.
6.40 Ryan Flournoy, WR, Cowboys
Some like Ryan Flournoy as a sleeper because he flashed at the Senior Bowl. However, he is only relevant in the deepest of dynasty leagues at this time.
7.05 Brenden Rice, WR, Chargers
Brenden Rice fell much further down the board than many were expecting. If it weren’t for being Jerry Rice’s son, though, no one would have batted an eye. Rice profiled as a day three selection. However, landing in Los Angeles does give Rice an opportunity to seize a role early on as the Chargers entered the draft as one of the most wide receiver-needy teams.
7.11 Jaheim Bell, TE, Patriots
Jaheim Bell is another potential playmaker for rookie quarterback Drake Maye. He will spend the next couple seasons developing behind Hunter Henry.
7.21 Tahj Washington, WR, Dolphins
Tahj Washington will be fighting for a spot at the bottom of the Dolphins depth chart.
Undrafted free agent landing spots of note:
Frank Gore Jr. RB – BUF
Cody Schrader RB – SF
RANKINGS | DYNASTY | ROOKIES
