Draft With Us On Underdog! Use Promo-Code: YARDSPER for a 100% deposit match up to $100!
At first glance, there isn’t an argument to be made for who to draft first between Terry McLaurin and Darnell Mooney. McLaurin is the easy choice because of his perceived talent edge, better offensive situation, and upgrade at quarterback over the off-season. His current ADP on Underdog is WR19 and he’s going in the early to mid-round three range, while Mooney is being drafted WR28 and going late in round four. What if I told you…Mooney should be going ahead of McLaurin in ADP?! I know this sounds absurd but let’s dig into the facts.
Terry McLaurin, Commanders (39.3 ADP, WR19)
McLaurin finished as the WR25 in PPR in 2021 with 12.6 points per game. He was able to haul in 77 receptions for 1053 yards and five TDs despite suffering from terrible QB play headlined by ODU legend Taylor Heinicke. Washington was a run-first offense with the hard-nosed Ron Rivera at the helm, only passing it 55.4 percent of the time with 550 attempts (25th in NFL). They were fortunate enough (or unfortunate, depending on your perspective) to trade for Carson Wentz in the offseason, the much-maligned quarterback out of North Dakota State who was run out of Indianapolis after some questionable decision making. Wentz played in all 17 games last year and accrued 3,563 passing yards on 516 attempts for 6.9 yards per attempt.
I don’t see the upside for McLaurin if, in the same amount of passing attempts as Washington totaled in 2021, Wentz would’ve thrown for a grand total of 49 more yards given his same yards per attempt. Despite the yardage being roughly equal, I need to give Wentz credit: he threw 3 more touchdowns and 8 fewer interceptions than the total of the Washington quarterbacks. This efficiency along with a solid defense and offensive line will lead to more positive game scripts, which, in turn, leads to more running of the rock and sad McLaurin fantasy owners.
Yes, Washington upgraded their quarterback and wide receiver rooms in the offseason with the acquisitions of Wentz by trade, Jahan Dotson in the draft, and possibly getting Rivera’s darling Curtis Samuel back from injury. This means there is more target competition than McLaurin has ever had, so it will be a struggle to reach the 24.5 percent target share he enjoyed in 2021. I haven’t mentioned the fact that, despite having a running back in Antonio Gibson that finished top-10 last year, Washington drafted Brian Robinson Jr. with their third-round pick. This acquisition muddies the waters even more for the Washington offense and signals a return to the 1990’s style run-first offense Rivera cherishes.
Darnell Mooney, Bears (57.3 ADP, WR28)
Mooney finished as the WR23 in PPR in 2021 with 12.9 points per game. He went on to record 81 receptions for 1055 yards and four touchdowns despite similarly terrible QB play (66.8 PFF grade vs. 58.5 for Washington). Chicago, too, was a run-first offense with the inept Matt Nagy running the show, passing it 55.8 percent of the time with 542 attempts. Justin Fields, the rookie phenom that gave hope to Bears’ fans everywhere, also had 6.9 yards per attempt as a rookie. Nagy was ousted for Matt Eberflus but taking control of the offense will be new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, formerly of the Packers.
Getsy will almost by default be putting Fields in a better situation than Nagy by playing to his strengths, but, if everything stays the same, Getsy pushed the Packers to 593 passing attempts despite the positive game scripts throughout the year. Fields would throw for about 457 more yards than Chicago totaled last year with his same efficiency, or 4,092 yards. When we take his last 5 games started, when Fields started getting acclimated to the NFL and averaged 7.6 yards per attempt, we could stretch that further and say he could throw for 4,507 yards, or 872 more yards than 2021. With an ascending quarterback in Fields, an awful offensive line, and a below average defense, the Bears will have plenty of negative game scripts to keep the passes flowing like wine.
The target competition for Mooney is minimal as Chicago got rid of the target hog Allen Robinson and replaced him with the middling talents of Byron Pringle, N’Keal Harry, and Velus Jones Jr. Cole Kmet, the Bears’ starting tight end, is somewhat of a fantasy darling this year but was kept out of key situations last year by a washed Jimmy Graham. There is always a chance for a 3rd year tight end breakout, but so far he hasn’t flashed the upside to command a high target share. Chicago kept the same running back room as well, so the 26.7 percent target share Mooney enjoyed last year could be dwarfed in 2022.
Which Situation Would You Rather Buy Into?
I’m fading McLaurin at his current ADP because, as shown above, he won’t be finishing much higher than his WR25 finish of last year. I’m willing to draft Mooney much higher than ADP because of the top-12 upside and safe floor that he has. Happy drafting!
DRAFT WITH US ON UNDERDOG! | PROMO CODE: YARDSPER
RANKINGS | DYNASTY | REDRAFT | BEST BALL
